NCAA tourney is slipping away

[baggerbob]

Without a good ooc win we will need 11 acc wins and at least 2 in the tourney to dance. I just don't see it. We will struggle to get to .500 in conference play.

This win would have been huge.

People just don't like to admit we lost a lot from last year, Baye would have made a difference yesterday, this team is what it is, probably NIT bound. The only team in JB's years as head coach to lose 4 OOC games was 1981-82, we went 16-13, and went to the NIT.

 

[donniesyracuse]

People just don't like to admit we lost a lot from last year, Baye would have made a difference yesterday, this team is what it is, probably NIT bound. The only team in JB's years as head coach to lose 4 OOC games was 1981-82, we went 16-13, and went to the NIT.

I think the NCAA tournament was 32 teams that year.

 

[pearl31]

I think the NCAA tournament was 32 teams that year.

And we're not going 16-13

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think using examples from twenty or thirty years ago doesn't hold much regard to today because the game has changed a lot even since the 90's. I realize a lot of old-timers have a different opinion than I do, but I'm still pretty excited about the team after yesterday's performance. One things for certain, is JB has done an amazing job with this team win or lose yesterday. I've seen tremendous improvement in Cooney in two weeks. Joseph and Gbinije are showing signs. The schedule lags here a bit for about ten games. If we can play like we did yesterday we can have a pretty good record here in a month or so.

 

[NYCSUGrad]

I think using examples from twenty or thirty years ago doesn't hold much regard to today because the game has changed a lot even since the 90's. I realize a lot of old-timers have a different opinion than I do, but I'm still pretty excited about the team after yesterday's performance. One things for certain, is JB has done an amazing job with this team win or lose yesterday. I've seen tremendous improvement in Cooney in two weeks. Joseph and Gbinije are showing signs. The schedule lags here a bit for about ten games. If we can play like we did yesterday we can have a pretty good record here in a month or so.

Even the 2000s might be a bad comparison with the very recent pattern of 11 12 13 14 and 15s upsetting the higher seed in the tourney. All I know is there WILL be upsets, just which ones are going to do it? There should have been a 16 upset decades ago, when Georgetown beat Princeton by one point after the refs fluffed them in the final minutes, but I really believe we will get it this year.

 

[81South]

I am not writing the kids off at this point, way to many games in front of us. Agree Nova would have been a great scalp to have but the kids will put themselves in position to get another big one.

 

[Jake]

You're joking right? You can't see .500 in ACC?

Wake
BC (twice)
VT
GT
FSU
NC State
Pitt (twice)
Clemson

SU will be favored in all of these games. Miami is ranked but are you scared of them? UNC is very beatable. I think SU gets blown out by Duke twice and loses by 12 to UL but every other game they'll be favored or slight underdog to UVA and ND

I'm joking? Um no. Is anyone thinking that this team is going to play at the level we played at vs Nova in all the remaining games. Y'all are high if you think that's happening. We will get better and so will other teams. Winning on the road in the ACC is hard.

Let's take a closer look at the games above which I assume you think are auto wins:

Five of them are road games: Ga Tech, Clemson, Pitt, BC, NCState.

We've played 2 road games this year and have lost them both. One to an horrific Michigan team. To think we're winning all five of those is overly optimistic. We're not going to be favorites @Pitt nor @NCState

I'll be optimistic and of those 10 games, lets say we go 7-3. Wins at home vs Wake, BC, Pitt, FSU, Va Tech, @BC, Clemson, losses @pitt, @NCState, @Ga Tech - (this team will stub its toe at some point)

That leaves 8 games on the schedule:

Miami, @UNC, Duke, Lville, @ND, @Duke, UVA,@VaTech

I have a hard time seeing wins in either Duke game, @unc, lvill, uva or @und. That means we need to pick off miami at home and @va Tech to get to .500.

And for the record, I will paypal you $500.00 if we are vegas favorites in every game except Duke (2), Lville, @ND, UVA. Your assumption is one of the most ridiculous i've ever read. How about you put up $100.00 for every game outside of those five that we are vegas dogs?

 

[pearl31]

I'm joking? Um no. Is anyone thinking that this team is going to play at the level we played at vs Nova in all the remaining games. Y'all are high if you think that's happening. We will get better and so will other teams. Winning on the road in the ACC is hard.

Let's take a closer look at the games above which I assume you think are auto wins:

Five of them are road games: Ga Tech, Clemson, Pitt, BC, NCState.

We've played 2 road games this year and have lost them both. One to an horrific Michigan team. To think we're winning all five of those is overly optimistic. We're not going to be favorites @Pitt nor @NCState

I'll be optimistic and of those 10 games, lets say we go 7-3. Wins at home vs Wake, BC, Pitt, FSU, Va Tech, @BC, Clemson, losses @pitt, @NCState, @Ga Tech - (this team will stub its toe at some point)

That leaves 8 games on the schedule:

Miami, @UNC, Duke, Lville, @ND, @Duke, UVA,@VaTech

I have a hard time seeing wins in either Duke game, @unc, lvill, uva or @und. That means we need to pick off miami at home and @va Tech to get to .500.

And for the record, I will paypal you $500.00 if we are vegas favorites in every game except Duke (2), Lville, @ND, UVA. Your assumption is one of the most ridiculous i've ever read. How about you put up $100.00 for every game outside of those five that we are vegas dogs?

So there's no way we play like we did vs Nova but we will definitely play like we did @ Mich or vs Cal? If you can't see that this team is making strides and will be significantly better by Feb... well, then you're just being willfully negative. More power to you, I guess.

 

[Jake]

So there's no way we play like we did vs Nova but we will definitely play like we did @ Mich or vs Cal? If you can't see that this team is making strides and will be significantly better by Feb... well, then you're just being willfully negative. More power to you, I guess.

One man's negative is another man's realism. This team will get better. We will play as well as we played against Nova again, but we will also play like we played against La Tech again too. But will our resume' warrant a spot in the NCAA's? I don't know. You do realize we won't be the only team in America that gets better right?

I'm also not making ridiculous assumptions like we're going to automatically chalk up sweeps to Pitt and wins at NCState and other ACC teams merely because it says "Syracuse' on the front of our jersey's. If somehow you think that makes me, or others "less of a fan"...

 

[pearl31]

One man's negative is another man's realism. This team will get better. We will play as well as we played against Nova again, but we will also play like we played against La Tech again too. But will our resume' warrant a spot in the NCAA's? I don't know. You do realize we won't be the only team in America that gets better right?

I'm also not making ridiculous assumptions like we're going to automatically chalk up sweeps to Pitt and wins at NCState and other ACC teams merely because it says "Syracuse' on the front of our jersey's. If somehow you think that makes me, or others "less of a fan"...

Right on. I just think the team is trending in the right direction and will be able to pick off one or two of those "murderers' row" games come Feb/March. And I think 10 ACC wins to include one or two over UNC/Duke/L'vlle/NC/Va/ND will get us in.

 

[jncuse]

Without a good ooc win we will need 11 acc wins and at least 2 in the tourney to dance. I just don't see it. We will struggle to get to .500 in conference play.

This win would have been huge.

2 would be enough -- it would not be "at least" if we are 11-7. For the ACC tourney, I am going to assume the path would be Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, and Virginia. That would give us an RPI of 30,

I know RPI is not the end all (it's a show me what else have you done number), but if you are in the top 40 from a power conference its very hard to be left out because you will have more other resume stuff than most bubble teams.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi

I played around with the Wizard for a bit and came up with.

9-4, 11-7, 2 Tourney Wins = RPI 30
9-4, 10-8, 2 Tourney Wins = RPI 42
9-4, 10-8, 1 Tourney Win = RPI 50
9-4, 11-7, 1 Tourney Win = RPI 43

With our lack of one quality OOC win, I think we have a shot of getting in (or being out) in all other scenarios. I think 11-7, 2 ACC wins, is our breathe easy target. I think one less combined win puts us in good shape,,, but no guarantee.

What we will need to help us out in our resume besides our base W/L record is avoid sub 100 losses, and get some pod level scalps at home.

Nova hurt because it's a lost opportunity. But it's not a killer, as it showed we are playing better and our capable of getting 2 nice scalps the rest of the way (especially at home)

 

[jncuse]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Look at teams with RPI's of 43-55. That is the type of resumes we will be up against on the bubble. 20 wins (including the ACC tourney) will get us on that uncomfortable line. (Note I am not saying 20 wins every year, I am saying 20 wins with our schedule this year)

As I said above, I view 22 as the breathe easy target. 20/21 will depend on a number of things. The lack of an OOC quality win will hurt. Although, Iowa may be a win over a tourney team on a neutral floor.

I think some of you are overstating the strength of what it takes to get in the tourney nowadays.

 

[pearl31]

La Tech and Holy Cross *could* end up looking like decent wins, too...
and also, if the 20 or 21 wins were to include, say, a Duke, Lvlle or UVA we would be looking pretty good

 

[jncuse]

Some positivity from the friend of all (cough) KenPom.

We are #35 in Ken Pom, 6th in the ACC. 6th in the ACC should be close to 11 wins.
We are the 3rd best team in the country with 4 losses (Other than Florida and Michigan St). And Florida and Michigan St are viewed as in.

 

[jncuse]

La Tech and Holy Cross *could* end up looking like decent wins, too...
and also, if the 20 or 21 wins were to include, say, a Duke, Lvlle or UVA we would be looking pretty good

Inevitably, I think we will need at least 1 big home win.

Based on Sagarin, we have the following odds for the 3 big home games:
Duke 25%
Louisville 28%
Virginia 29%

I know we are viewed more favourable under KP but don't have those individuals odd.

It's more likely that we go 1-2 in that set than 0-3 in my view (even without the probabilities above). But 0-3 is certainly possible, and would be the death blow.

 

[HOFCeluck]

I think we'll beat duke at home.

 

[690West]

Jncuse bringing some great stuff to this thread. Well done

 

[HoustonCuse]

The crazy thing about this team is that I can't tell if we have no hope of hitting .500 or if we are just about to be pretty good. I think we can all agree, this has looked like the worst Syracuse team in memory and in reality it might very well be that. However, they really were one play away from beating both Michigan and Villanova on the road. Both of those games took almost impossible screwups (multiple screwups) for us to lose. I did not see the St. John's game so I can't speak to that.

But as close as we were yesterday and against Michigan, we have seen enough of the team to know that those collapses weren't totally unexpected and were exactly within character for this team. As I said before the Nova game - we're too broken to win right now even with stellar play from a few guys - that is exactly what we saw yesterday. The question is whether they figure out how to eliminate that last couple screwups and actually close a couple of these games out. If they do, we have every reason to expect a tournament berth. If they continue as they have, then .500 in the ACC will indeed be a reasonable goal. Just don't know what to expect right now.

 

[Dave85]

Inevitably, I think we will need at least 1 big home win.

Based on Sagarin, we have the following odds for the 3 big home games:
Duke 25%
Louisville 28%
Virginia 29%

I know we are viewed more favourable under KP but don't have those individuals odd.

It's more likely that we go 1-2 in that set than 0-3 in my view (even without the probabilities above). But 0-3 is certainly possible, and would be the death blow.

Well, sorry to be the bearer of bad news but it is the Gambler's fallacy to thing our chances improve with more tosses of the dice. Regardless of how many times we try our chancesare the same (about 1 in 3). What will change our chances of winning is our team playing really well and one of the other teams not showing up. That's our best chance.

 

[kirbivore]

The other part of the equation is avoiding bad losses. The bottom half of the ACC sucks this year so here are the remaining sub 100 RPI games per realtimeRPI.com (I don't subscribe to the premium service so this only goes through Saturday afternoon). Right now Iowa is the only top 100 win and Michigan is the only sub 100 loss.

Colgate 305
Cornell 212
@ VT 268
FSU 199
Wake 189
Clemson 165
BC 119
VT 268 (a double with them, barf)
@BC 119 (they may slip into the top 100 by season's end)
@ND 134

 

[HOFCeluck]

Well we are going to get better for sure...idon't know how I'll feel about being the best 19 win team in America if we're left or though.