orangepassion
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ND eying the landscape
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omniorange
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My thoughts regarding ND joining a conference:
It will take both a seismic change in the college athletics landscape and the instability of the Big East to get ND to even consider giving up its cherished independence per Swarbrick last year when BiG expansion was all the rage.
And that seismic change, imho, is precisely a 4-16 model with a self-contained college football playoff within it. As I've mentioned before, I think the game plan for those who want to see a 4-16 model will result in three levels of football, in simple terms an FBCS level (that will have at least a 4-team playoff), an FBS level (similar to the Bowl system currently in place), and an FCS level (something similar to the current set-up as well).
The major problem with 4-16 as FrankTheTank and others have mentioned is that it is hardly inevitable since it doesn't take into account each conference's differing standards/criteria for expansion.
Even if the twice failed attempt of the Pac going to 16 with the Texahoma schools eventually comes about and the SEC is willing to expand with A&M, Mizzou, WVU, and UL, (both are HUGE IFs) that still leaves the BiG and the ACC with basically only ND and either Rutgers or UConn (but not both) to get the BiG up to 14 or the ACC to 16.
None of the other remaining candidates meet the higher level criteria these two conferences have used in the past.
And with the Big 12 seemingly about to survive for at least another 6 years, regardless of what happens to the Big East, this is good news for ND and its desire to remain indy in football.
Cheers,
Neil
It will take both a seismic change in the college athletics landscape and the instability of the Big East to get ND to even consider giving up its cherished independence per Swarbrick last year when BiG expansion was all the rage.
And that seismic change, imho, is precisely a 4-16 model with a self-contained college football playoff within it. As I've mentioned before, I think the game plan for those who want to see a 4-16 model will result in three levels of football, in simple terms an FBCS level (that will have at least a 4-team playoff), an FBS level (similar to the Bowl system currently in place), and an FCS level (something similar to the current set-up as well).
The major problem with 4-16 as FrankTheTank and others have mentioned is that it is hardly inevitable since it doesn't take into account each conference's differing standards/criteria for expansion.
Even if the twice failed attempt of the Pac going to 16 with the Texahoma schools eventually comes about and the SEC is willing to expand with A&M, Mizzou, WVU, and UL, (both are HUGE IFs) that still leaves the BiG and the ACC with basically only ND and either Rutgers or UConn (but not both) to get the BiG up to 14 or the ACC to 16.
None of the other remaining candidates meet the higher level criteria these two conferences have used in the past.
And with the Big 12 seemingly about to survive for at least another 6 years, regardless of what happens to the Big East, this is good news for ND and its desire to remain indy in football.
Cheers,
Neil
kyleslamb
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I think Swarbrick sees the writing on the wall, personally.
Even if the Big 12 survives (which it was reported tonight that the 6-year agreement is nowhere near being signed and now Texas is reportedly backing off that commitment to signing it), if the Big East is killed off as a BCS-level conference, Notre Dame still faces the issue of where to park their olympic sports. The Big 12 might accommodate them, but if they don't do so as an associate member, Notre Dame is faced with the same problem with or without 16-team conferences.
Even if the Big 12 survives (which it was reported tonight that the 6-year agreement is nowhere near being signed and now Texas is reportedly backing off that commitment to signing it), if the Big East is killed off as a BCS-level conference, Notre Dame still faces the issue of where to park their olympic sports. The Big 12 might accommodate them, but if they don't do so as an associate member, Notre Dame is faced with the same problem with or without 16-team conferences.
orange79
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I am with Bees on this one - I think we end up with 5x16. Not many teams left out. 80 is a lot more than 64, in FB terms. Still not sure we see a true playoff - the political will just doesn't seem to be there, and there's still all that bowl money floating around. I could see a Plus 1 (or even a Plus 3 - winners of the 4 major bowls meet for semis and finals) though.
orange79
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I am sure it's out there somewhere, but does anyone know where the largest concentration of ND alumni is? MW vs. East coast? That could have influenced the decision. Of course, they could have chosen the league for numerous other reasons. Who knows...
JoeCollege
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ND's preference for now might be a surviving BE, with the FB members being Rutgers, UConn, ECU, USF, UCF, Tulane, Temple, and another few stragglers. That way, they park their olympic sports, keep hockey where they want it, and can maintain football independence. If nothing else it buys them (all) time to figure out where they might land in 5-8 years and adjust accordingly.
Scooch
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They made that same choice 15 years ago for everything but football. ND cleary sees itself as "eastern leaning". But football is football, they see themselves as national there, and they are.
44PRIDE
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I don't buy into the 5x16 model. To reach 16 teams, these 5 BCS conferences would need a total of 13 additional BCS caliber programs. There just aren't enough teams available to sustain that kind of jump. BCS conferences aren't going to divide their payouts to invite teams like Temple, UCF and Wyoming.
The only way we hit 16 teams is if the Big East and the B12 are cannibalized. If the B12 survives, we end up with a mix of 12-14-16 conferences...at least for the forseeable future.
This is what I would do if I were ND.
Stay in BE and join for football only if BE remains AQ. Then, add Navy, Air Force and any other school that is available that they play into the conference. Now they have less obligations to play teams OOC and now can keep USC, Michigan and still have 3 other OOC to play with. Since they will be in an 8 team football conference they will only have 7 conference games so that gives them the 5 OOC. If TCU, WV and Louisville leave that still gives the BE:
ND, UConn, Rutgers, Navy, Cincy, Air Force, USF, and ECU/Tulane plus of course the basketball schools. Only ECU or Tulane join in hoops as Air Force and Navy play just football.
This will give ND the choices they need OOC for football and a very solid shot each year at a major bowl bid while keeping their basketball and other sports where they have been since 95 or so.
Stay in BE and join for football only if BE remains AQ. Then, add Navy, Air Force and any other school that is available that they play into the conference. Now they have less obligations to play teams OOC and now can keep USC, Michigan and still have 3 other OOC to play with. Since they will be in an 8 team football conference they will only have 7 conference games so that gives them the 5 OOC. If TCU, WV and Louisville leave that still gives the BE:
ND, UConn, Rutgers, Navy, Cincy, Air Force, USF, and ECU/Tulane plus of course the basketball schools. Only ECU or Tulane join in hoops as Air Force and Navy play just football.
This will give ND the choices they need OOC for football and a very solid shot each year at a major bowl bid while keeping their basketball and other sports where they have been since 95 or so.
44PRIDE
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I stopped reading right here...
They have an aq for a certain amount of time and it won't be taken away until they have been proven to be bad. ND has the name and reputation to possibly keep that aq so as much as people want to bury the big east I think it has a very possible answer and it ALL depends on ND.
K
kingottoiii
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If the BE got to 12 in FB it could be the best spot short term for ND. First they would always win the conference and the BCS bid. Second they would only have to play 6 conference games, leaving them to schedule Mich, Mich St, Purdue, USC, Stanford, plus 1 more. That might be more attractive to them the joining the B1G or ACC where they play 8-9 conf games. They can be in the following 12 FB and 15 BBall BE...
ND, Army, Navy, Air Force, Tulane, Nova
RU, UConn, Cincy, USF, UCF, SMU
They can play division teams every year. And cross division 1 in 6 years. Being in the same conf will help them recruit NJ, Fla, Texas, and Ohio.
longtimefan
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If they wouldn't join BE football when BC, SU and Pitt were members, they are not jumping on board with the likes of USF, UCF, etc.
Chip
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I don't think there's any way, shape or form that you could sell that to the ND fan base. It would be mocked all over sports. Swarbrick would be fired within a year.
ND isn't joining a conference for football until NBC (and every other network) tells them they're no longer interested in an exclusive contract for their home games.
44PRIDE
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Are you really saying that Notre Dame would be better off going to an unstable Big East conference made up of BCS afterthoughts? Really?
Rutgers is thinking short term………UConn is thinking short term…….Cincinnati is thinking short term. The most coveted free agent in college football history doesn’t think short term. If ND eventually relinquishes their cherished independence, it certainly isn’t going to be for a dysfunctional Big East Conference.
Rutgers is thinking short term………UConn is thinking short term…….Cincinnati is thinking short term. The most coveted free agent in college football history doesn’t think short term. If ND eventually relinquishes their cherished independence, it certainly isn’t going to be for a dysfunctional Big East Conference.
K
kingottoiii
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But they need a home for other sports. The above would make them Semi Indy. Joining another conference would mean giving up rivalry games. You cannot fit USC, Stanford, Navy, Pitt, Mich, Mich St, Purdue into an OOC schedule. If ND doesn't join in FB then the BE FB would cease to exist. Why would USF and Cincy stay vs going to CUSA? What team would leave CUSA for the BE? So ND would be are left with at best the following for non FB if they stayed Indy...
ND, GTown, Nova, Marquette, St Johns, Seton Hall, Providence, DePaul then maybe UConn (if they go MAC for FB), maybe RU (see UConn), maybe Xavier, Duquesne, Butler, etc.
That isn't sustainable and would kill their non FB sports. They HAVE to join a conference if the BE loses TCU, WV, and Louisville. They can choose being on of the big fishes in the B1G or being THE fish in the BE.
TexanMark
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Sure there are...if you put Duke, Wake Forest, etc...as the minimum threshold you can build up to 80 easily.
Hmmm let me name a few: The academies, Boise, BYU, Fresno St, ECU, UCF, Colorado St, Hawaii, Nevada, SMU, Houston, etc...they could get to 80 easily. I'd rather be inclusive of 80 than force an arbitrary 64 there due to a silly playoff.
Chip
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I think this league could be sustainable for their other sports. Maybe not long term, but long enough to keep riding out football independence for awhile.
Chip
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It's not about preferences from the fans. It's about keeping Congress quiet. If college football is only going to be a 64 team sport, Congress gets noisy. If it's an 80 team sport, you have a better chance of pulling it off.
I say this disclaimer every time, but I'll say it again. It's not about what direct power Congress has in this process, and it's not about Congress needing to focus on more important things, it's about how loud they'll get, who they'll threaten, and what it does to the process.
If the BCS conferences had their way, it would be 64 teams or less. Not because of it's arbitrary or a silly playoff, but because they don't want to share the pot of gold with the types of schools you are mentioning.
All4SU
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I don't think ND would have won the BE the last few years. Why would you think they would win it going forward, no matter who is in the BE?
All4SU
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'Zactly!
No it isn't. If like Otto said they add SMU then the irish are going to NJ, Ohio, Florida and Texas for recruiting purposes along with maybe adding Temple and PA. I think they could have their cake and eat it too if they can sell it too the alumni and cash backer boosters. They have home and homes with Texas now and would travel to SMU the years they have Texas in Indiana. ND will now control the whole conference as well and have the major say in all sports. They'll still be in a way independent but now they have minions to do the leg work for them.
44PRIDE
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Tex,
It isn't fair to use Duke, WF, Vanderbilt and Northwestern as a baseline. They are longstanding members of existing conferences. If roles were reversed and the ACC were to destabilize, I doubt anyone would be taking a hard look at Duke as an expansion candidate.
To my point, do you honestly see anyone outside of the BE/B12 adding the academies, Fresno St, ECU, UCF, Colorado St, Hawaii, Nevada, SMU, Houston, etc...?
Do you see Hawaii or UCF as bringing enough value into a TV contract to warrant addition to a conference? Do you actually see conferences choosing to split their existing TV income in order to add a Nevada or Fresno St.?
It isn't fair to use Duke, WF, Vanderbilt and Northwestern as a baseline. They are longstanding members of existing conferences. If roles were reversed and the ACC were to destabilize, I doubt anyone would be taking a hard look at Duke as an expansion candidate.
To my point, do you honestly see anyone outside of the BE/B12 adding the academies, Fresno St, ECU, UCF, Colorado St, Hawaii, Nevada, SMU, Houston, etc...?
Do you see Hawaii or UCF as bringing enough value into a TV contract to warrant addition to a conference? Do you actually see conferences choosing to split their existing TV income in order to add a Nevada or Fresno St.?
