No conference is going to 16 teams unless they increase their individual take home by doing so.
The only teams currently on the table that can make it worthwhile for any conference to go to 16 are Texas and ND. So at most, 2 conferences could feel compelled to go to 16.
Why would the SEC ever go to 16? They can't even find a suitable #14.
To join the big 10, each team must bring in an additional $22M per year, is there anyone besides ND and Texas who could bring even half that?
Conferences have been expanding for only 2 reasons, bringing in major names/markets, or to reopen/create TV deals.
The Big 10 went to 12 be getting Nebraska, a major name who can bring in eyeballs around the country. The SEC expanded to get a brand name and major markets with A&M.
The Pac 10 went to 12, and created additional revenue with an innovative new TV deal, and a couple new markets. The ACC went to 14 to repoen their TV deal and bring it up to market value.
The Big 12 would have stayed as is, but now must expand to save their TV deal.
At this point, there are only 2 major names available, and there are no more major TV deals to be reopened. Once the SEC/Big 12 sort themselves out, expansion is over. 4x16 teams is a pipe dream that likely will never happen.
The only teams currently on the table that can make it worthwhile for any conference to go to 16 are Texas and ND. So at most, 2 conferences could feel compelled to go to 16.
Why would the SEC ever go to 16? They can't even find a suitable #14.
To join the big 10, each team must bring in an additional $22M per year, is there anyone besides ND and Texas who could bring even half that?
Conferences have been expanding for only 2 reasons, bringing in major names/markets, or to reopen/create TV deals.
The Big 10 went to 12 be getting Nebraska, a major name who can bring in eyeballs around the country. The SEC expanded to get a brand name and major markets with A&M.
The Pac 10 went to 12, and created additional revenue with an innovative new TV deal, and a couple new markets. The ACC went to 14 to repoen their TV deal and bring it up to market value.
The Big 12 would have stayed as is, but now must expand to save their TV deal.
At this point, there are only 2 major names available, and there are no more major TV deals to be reopened. Once the SEC/Big 12 sort themselves out, expansion is over. 4x16 teams is a pipe dream that likely will never happen.