Need To Win Our Last Four To Get A 1 Seed?

[HakAttack]

Maryland and UVA are almost MUST wins at this point, and I can't see us keeping a #1 seed if we don't also beat FSU and GA Tech.

What do folks think?

In a completely unrelated rant, I will go ape $h1t if Duke jumps us in the polls today.

 

[RF2044]

My opinion only, but 5 wins ensures the #1 seed. Three could come in the regular season, 2 in the ACC tournament.

But I'd prefer to erase all doubts and win out these next four games to win the ACC regular season title outright. And I'm confident as hell we will.


Let's Go Orange!!!

 

[2-3zone]

IMO we have to beat Maryland, Georgia Tech and Florida St. and win our first ACC tourney game

A loss to Virginia would not be a bad loss

 

[BludOrange]

As long as we can make it to the ACC tourny championship game, we have room to lose one more time in the regular season and still get a 1 seed. If it's Duke in the ACC final, we have to beat them as we will be battling Duke and their 6 losses for the last one seed. If Wichita St wins out, they get one. Florida and Arizona will get the other two spots.

 

[Syracusian]

It obviously is dependent upon what other teams do. For instance if multiple other teams win out and then also win their conference tournaments, then things change.

But, as RF said, there's a threshold that we could reach and be assured the #1 in the East. For instance no matter what anyone else does, if we win the four straight games to end the regular season, then we'll be the #1 in the East no matter what happens in the ACC tournament (even if Duke wins it). If we win three in the regular season and then win one in the ACC tournament, I'd still say we'd get the #1 seed in the East.

There are also scenarios that if we lose two more games, but win the ACC tournament, we'll still definitely be #1 in the East.

One thing is for sure, when people constantly say that "We've locked up the #1 in the East", yet there's still 6-7 games left, it just isn't true. We might have put ourselves in a really good position and the chances are heavily in favor of us being the #1 in the East, but it isn't locked up. But, for people to say that we need to win out now for the rest of the regular season is just wrong.

 

[Knicks411]

Duke already has 6 losses. The BC loss was pretty ghastly, but I'd still think 4 wins between now and selection Sunday. The big reason for that is someone has to be the #1 in the east, and if the other #1's are Florida/Wichita/Arizona, then we don't have to worry about one of them taking the East.

And the B10 and B12 may just have too many good teams for one to finish with a 1 seed.

 

[Marsh01]

Wichita State really needs to lose to open up the 1 seed in the midwest which would make it that much easier to grab a 1 seed. If they even lose one game (now or in their conference tournament) they are out as far as a 1 seed goes. Gotta have someone pick them off.

If we win out (which we certainly can do) and win the 8/9 game we will have no issues.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

28-3 regular season should get us a #1 seed. Winning at least 2 games in the ACCT won't hurt.

We can lose to either Maryland or Virginia, but not both.

 

[Knicks411]

Wichita State really needs to lose to open up the 1 seed in the midwest which would make it that much easier to grab a 1 seed. If they even lose one game (now or in their conference tournament) they are out as far as a 1 seed goes. Gotta have someone pick them off.

If we win out (which we certainly can do) and win the 8/9 game we will have no issues.

Wichita State dropping a game would definitely help; like you said it would open up a 1 seed if someone from the b12 or b10 gets hot in the the next few weeks. (Kansas?) Not sure I see it though.

If we ran the table and even lost the first round ACC game, I wouldn't really be that concerned. Who is gonna pass us at that point, Duke? Even if they run the table, you're talking them finishing 28-6 (29-3 for us in this scenario) and we'd finish 2 games ahead of them in the league, with the teams splitting 2 games. OOC, we'd likely get the edge; they lost to 2 really good teams and beat UCLA and Michigan neutral and home, while we ran the table, beat Nova at home, a road win vs St Johns, plus some wins against 50-70 type teams on neutrals.

 

[SBU72]

Who is ahead of SU to get the #1 seed? If they lose all the next 4, then maybe there is a better choice. Deservedly so. Win 2, then make a case for 4 teams to be a better choice. I am not considering the ACC tourney.

 

[Marsh01]

Wichita State dropping a game would definitely help; like you said it would open up a 1 seed if someone from the b12 or b10 gets hot in the the next few weeks. (Kansas?) Not sure I see it though.

If we ran the table and even lost the first round ACC game, I wouldn't really be that concerned. Who is gonna pass us at that point, Duke? Even if they run the table, you're talking them finishing 28-6 (29-3 for us in this scenario) and we'd finish 2 games ahead of them in the league, with the teams splitting 2 games. OOC, we'd likely get the edge; they lost to 2 really good teams and beat UCLA and Michigan neutral and home, while we ran the table, beat Nova at home, a road win vs St Johns, plus some wins against 50-70 type teams on neutrals.

I agree. A loss in the quarters if we go 29-2 will not hurt us

 

[Marsh01]

Here's the thing too. I think Arizona will drop another game or two before the conference tourneys are over so that may impact them as well. They have been on borrowed time longer than we have.

 

[sabach]

Here's the thing too. I think Arizona will drop another game or two before the conference tourneys are over so that may impact them as well. They have been on borrowed time longer than we have.

Marsh, who do you see as our main competition for the number 1 in the East?

 

[Knicks411]

Here's the thing too. I think Arizona will drop another game or two before the conference tourneys are over so that may impact them as well. They have been on borrowed time longer than we have.

I was about to come in here to say this. Now they did just smack around a decent Colorado team on the road, but like us, they have had a decent amount of close games lately. They end the year at Oregon. Put up a loss there, and also don't win their tournament, and without Ashley, that resume might look a little different.

 

[CorduroyG]

Win out in regular season we lock up east 1 even if we lose by 30 in ACC quarters. If we go 3-1 we'd need 1 maybe 2 ACC tourney wins to lock up a 1. Remember the committee likes to lock up the 1 seeds early, they're not gonna kill themselves debating 1 seed resumes. Let's say we finish 28-3 15-3 in regular season and go 1-1 in ACC tourney. Committee sees us at 29-4, knows every other team except for zona Wichita st and Florida has at least 1 or 2 more losses than us, they'd probably put us east 1 without much thought.

 

[Marsh01]

Marsh, who do you see as our main competition for the number 1 in the East?

Kansas is the #1 contender. Without a doubt. Duke could only get it if they sweep the rest of their games and win the ACC tourney (beating us and possibly UNC) along the way.

Root for Kansas to lose tonight!

 

[BuffOrange]

5 sounds like the right magic # to me; unless we win these next 4 then I agree the ACCT becomes irrelevant. 3-1 in these next 4 is going to mean a likely date with Dook in the ACC semi's which we won't want to lose to feel safe.

 

[sabach]

Kansas is the #1 contender. Without a doubt. Duke could only get it if they sweep the rest of their games and win the ACC tourney (beating us and possibly UNC) along the way.

Root for Kansas to lose tonight!

I figured it had to be a team from outside of the East as I see us over Virginia, especially if we win on Sat. And Duke's 6 losses cannot be forgotten. We are still over Nova as well.

 

[HakAttack]

I figured it had to be a team from outside of the East as I see us over Virginia, especially if we win on Sat. And Duke's 6 losses cannot be forgotten. We are still over Nova as well.

That's the thing that keeps me fairly confident we will still get a #1 seed. Even after last week as a whole, we still only have 2 losses. Duke and Kansas have five or six each.

Our hot start has allowed us a cushion where we've been able to struggle for about 3-4 games but still don't have to necessarily panic about losing the seed line we've earned with the overall body of work.

Nice place to be in. Sure beats selection sunday 2007.

 

[sabach]

That's the thing that keeps me fairly confident we will still get a #1 seed. Even after last week as a whole, we still only have 2 losses. Duke and Kansas have five or six each.

Our hot start has allowed us a cushion where we've been able to struggle for about 3-4 games but still don't have to necessarily panic about losing the seed line we've earned with the overall body of work.

Nice place to be in. Sure beats selection sunday 2007.

That's true. Forgotten in the mayhem that was Sat night is the fact that Duke lost last week. I agree with Marsh. I do not see Duke being a number 1 unless they win out. If they win out from here and we lose one or two, I can see Duke getting our spot in MSG.

 

[AZOrange]

Kansas is the #1 contender. Without a doubt. Duke could only get it if they sweep the rest of their games and win the ACC tourney (beating us and possibly UNC) along the way. Root for Kansas to lose tonight!

who cares if we are the one there though. Honestly if Kansas gets a 1 I think they will be in Indiana over Wichita...

 

[Marsh01]

who cares if we are the one there though. Honestly if Kansas gets a 1 I think they will be in Indiana over Wichita...

Not if Wichita goes unbeaten we wont

 

[Marsh01]

That's true. Forgotten in the mayhem that was Sat night is the fact that Duke lost last week. I agree with Marsh. I do not see Duke being a number 1 unless they win out. If they win out from here and we lose one or two, I can see Duke getting our spot in MSG.

We would also have to lose a game or two before the end of the regular season.

Bottom line is if we win our next 4 we all but lock up 1 in the east. Not a guarantee but pretty damn close.

 

[bpo57]

My opinion only, but 5 wins ensures the #1 seed. Three could come in the regular season, 2 in the ACC tournament.

But I'd prefer to erase all doubts and win out these next four games to win the ACC regular season title outright. And I'm confident as hell we will.

Let's Go Orange!!!

I would agree with your five win scenario. That should work unless KU, WS, UA and UF all run the table from here without a loss and even then the Committee may find WS' record to be suspect.

 

[sabach]

We would also have to lose a game or two before the end of the regular season.

Bottom line is if we win our next 4 we all but lock up 1 in the east. Not a guarantee but pretty damn close.

If we win our next 4 to go 29-2 in the regular season and lose it in the ACC quarters, I would be all but certain that we would still be the number 1 in the East. However, I will never, ever, ever expect any sanity from the committee after the snubs we received in the past.