NET and KenPom Tracker 23-24 (SU = 84 3/9/24)

[MSOrange]

When is the quad number set? End of season? I’ve always wondered if it’s when the game is played or if is where you end up.

It is where you ultimately end up, so it's all subject to change until the end of the season.

 

[BomberOrange]

It is where you ultimately end up, so it's all subject to change until the end of the season.

Thanks I figured that but wasn’t sure.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Cstate]

Alabama at 9-5 is 6th in NET…..they are also 0-5 against Quad 1. Am I missing something?!

 

[Fly Rodder]

Alabama at 9-5 is 6th in NET…..they are also 0-5 against Quad 1. Am I missing something?!

Alabama has great metrics, one of, if not THE best offenses in the country and a decent defense, but they've lost some relatively close games to top-20 teams. I don't think it matters much in the metrics, but Alabama has had at least a 6 pt second half lead in four of their 5 losses. They're probably better than their record indicates, which is reflected in their bump in NET and KenPom right now. They turn the ball over a lot and commit a lot of fouls. So if the defense continues to suck, then they'll probably drop some. That offense though ... at some point they could roll a bunch of teams.

 

[Marty McFly]

clearly margin of victory is weighted heavily. Keep it close against highly ranked teams and blow out everyone else. At some point you'd think raking up the losses would have some detrimental affect, we'll see.

 

[Knicks411]

One point I would make on this when it comes to discrepancies vs what the Net or Ken Pom are rating a team vs where you think they should be is: The vegas lines usually track pretty close to what Ken Pom has, so if you think a team (lets call them "Alabama") is overrated by those metrics, you have a way of profiting off it

 

[jncuse]

Alabama at 9-5 is 6th in NET…..they are also 0-5 against Quad 1. Am I missing something?!

Close losses to good teams. Indicates they are better than their record.

At the same time while they will not be punished for it in KP or NET, it will certainly impact their seeding come season end which comes down to if you actually won that tough game.

 

[jncuse]

Without looking at the specifics I suspect our opponents so far this season must have played well since our Duke game.

After the Duke game our KP Adjusted EM was +9.3 if IIRC and we were around #85. Now its up to +9.7 and we are at #80. So we are moving up only because of who we have played, since we didn't actually play a game.

Average NET isn't quite the same as SOS either. KP has our SOS #27, not quite as high as the Average NET, but still a good number -- #15 amongst top conference teams.

 

[M2MPrinciples]

One point I would make on this when it comes to discrepancies vs what the Net or Ken Pom are rating a team vs where you think they should be is: The vegas lines usually track pretty close to what Ken Pom has, so if you think a team (lets call them "Alabama") is overrated by those metrics, you have a way of profiting off it

Along similar logic, Auburn is currently one of four teams that are in the top 10 of KenPom in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense (9th in both), however, at 30:1 they have just the 14th-shortest odds to win the tournament. For context, FAU who has three losses to sub-100 KenPom teams have the same odds. So if you believe in the Tigers' balance they are a great futures play at the moment.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[upperdeck]

Pitt is ahead of us in Net

they have 4 home losses we have none

quad 1 we have a win they dont
quad 2 we have a win they dont
quad 3 we are 5-0 vs their 4-1

they have a ton of quad 4 wins and we have only played 2..

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

NET doesn't seem to be a great metric to be determining an NCAAT profile. For all of the data that the model has at this point, it seems to be spitting out some real garbage team assessments. In a sport where matchups often tell the story, margin of victory seems to be overweighted vs. the actual results.

 

[Sbucketball]

NET doesn't seem to be a great metric to be determining an NCAAT profile. For all of the data that the model has at this point, it seems to be spitting out some real garbage team assessments. In a sport where matchups often tell the story, margin of victory seems to be overweighted vs. the actual results.

I'm not a big fan of margin of victory. In the last minute or two the team up hits all their foul shots and the team down misses all their desperation 3s and a 1-point game turns into a 12 point loss.

Just spit balling here, but I wonder if some sort of weighted average score margin would work, where it calculates the weighted average of margin throughout the entire game, with more emphasis on the second half and the final score.

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

I'm not a big fan of margin of victory. In the last minute or two the team up hits all their foul shots and the team down misses all their desperation 3s and a 1-point game turns into a 12 point loss.

Just spit balling here, but I wonder if some sort of weighted average score margin would work, where it calculates the weighted average of margin throughout the entire game, with more emphasis on the second half and the final score.

Yeah, I know a lot has been posted here about the guts of the NET modeling, but I don't have time to go back through it and pick out what seems silly. I agree; if they binned margin of victory in increments of points (they can use previous year's data to assess what bins are most effective for determining a team's success) with a cap, I think that would make things more reasonable.

I feel like margin of victory is fine as part of the model, but a lot of things get lost when you have a young, developing team like ours that is super vulnerable to being blown out against teams with a certain style of play. I think that will improve as the season goes on, but it seems like it's killing our numbers now. I would not be shocked to see this team hammer UVA in a future matchup, for example.

 

[Charbroil]

Coming into the day Syracuse was 1 spot behind BC in the NET rankings. Given the weird formulas in the NET, I expect BC losing by 10 on the road will have them shoot up 12 spots in the rankings while Syracuse drops 48 spots.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Coming into the day Syracuse was 1 spot behind BC in the NET rankings. Given the weird formulas in the NET, I expect BC losing by 10 on the road will have them shoot up 12 spots in the rankings while Syracuse drops 48 spots.

If we could beat BC like 50 to 24, then it would improve our NET ranking. At some point in the first half, I thought it is possible.

 

[Cuse181]

up to 73, meanwhile Miami dropped like a rock. A win over UNC would do wonders. Still not quite sure how Pitt is above cuse still but wonky formulas are going to be wonky i guess

 

[atlanticuse]

up to 73, meanwhile Miami dropped like a rock. A win over UNC would do wonders. Still not quite sure how Pitt is above cuse still but wonky formulas are going to be wonky i guess

nearly posted same exact thing.
competition? two road wins?
oregon state?

 

[OrlandoCuse]

up to 73, meanwhile Miami dropped like a rock. A win over UNC would do wonders. Still not quite sure how Pitt is above cuse still but wonky formulas are going to be wonky i guess

Only thing hurting us is our losing margin. We lost to good teams but we lost by too much to those good teams. Additionally we haven’t blown out too many bad teams. I think if it put a couple of Q1 wins on the board and win more games by 10+ points then we will shoot up the computer ranking.

 

[Sbucketball]

up to 73, meanwhile Miami dropped like a rock. A win over UNC would do wonders. Still not quite sure how Pitt is above cuse still but wonky formulas are going to be wonky i guess

The ACC should just suspend Louisville for sucking so hopeful tournament teams don't have to play Q4 trap games

 

[Fly Rodder]

I think if it put a couple of Q1 wins on the board and win more games by 10+ points then we will shoot up the computer ranking.

That's a lot of it and it's all relative to how other teams have played the same teams.

 

[atlanticuse]

If we can do this, we're in the Tourney. You can shift around some games - not sure we'll beat UNC at home, we could win at Wake or BC - and could also lose at GT - but ... thoughts? 10-6 rest of the way.

@ UNC - loss
@ Pitt - loss
Miami - win
Florida State - win
NC State - win
@ BC - loss
@ Wake - loss
Louisville - win
Clemson - win
UNC - win
@ GT - win
@ NC State - loss
ND - win
VT - win
@ Louisville - win
@ Clemson - loss

 

[CardiacCuse]

right now CUse is 74th in kenpom


141st on offense and 38th on defense...matches my eye test

this team has won with DEFENSE and barely squeeking by on Offense

the best part of the offense seems to be points off turnovers



interesting note: there is only 1 team in spots 1-73 with a lower offensive ranking than the Cuse. only 1. (42nd Providence with an offense of 146th and the 6th best defense)


this is the ceiling unless the offense improves, imo...

they are elite defensively when they "lock in" ...truly elite 9havent shown they can sustain it for 40 minutes bc the bench isnt as good as the best 5 defenders)


and hovering around quad 3 on offense

fix the offense and they are a lock for the tourney.

 

[IthacaMatt]

right now CUse is 74th in kenpom

this is the ceiling unless the offense improves, imo...

and hovering around quad 3 on offense

fix the offense and they are a lock for the tourney.

Completely agree, and perhaps unlike you, I see more upside in the offense. I think Mintz can play less selfishly, create more assists. I think it was a good teaching moment to sit him against BC for the first 9 minutes, and have us absolutely throttle BC early on, despite his absence.

The family drama on the board is not helpful, if you believe that family member is saying these same things to Judah, or if this reflects where Judah's head is at, well, we're right to engage in that discussion.

He is not indispensible to this team. This team relies on good defense, getting out in transition for easy scores, and moving the ball. We have 2 out of 3 of those right now; we have to improve our offensive sets, and create more motion, more screens, more easy shots. We have to move better without the ball.

Other than that, I feel like Autry is doing a great job. This is Judah's year; either he steps up and turns this into a Top 25 team by being more team focused; or he can go be somebody else's role player next year if he goes in the portal. The choice is his. This is his opportunity, whether he (or his family) sees it or not.

Judah does better in the draft by helping to make this team a very good team, a Top 25 team. This team could be very good, if people can keep working hard, and trusting each other, and have just a bit more on offense than they've shown so far.