NET and KenPom Tracker 23-24 (SU = 84 3/9/24)

[jncuse]

LOL, Pitt jumps from low 80’s to 70 in KP after their win at Duke. We went from 76 to 75. KP definitely hates Syracuse this year. I know it has lots of credibility with fans, but its kind of a joke

This was expected. The math works based on it being a margin system. A road win at Duke is much more impressive than a home win vs Miami. Both results are great for us however tourney wise and that is the most important thing though.

As for the math.
We were supposed to beat Miami today by a few points. So we held steady.
Pitt was supposed to lose Duke by about 13 points. Pitt beat that by 16 points, they have played 18 games, so there ADJ EM will rise by about 0.9... 0.9 is basically the difference between #70 (11.2) and #80 (10.2) in the rankings.

I think the more interesting thing to see will be how our NET moves tomorrow. In a margin based system our ranking should have stayed neutral as it did ... we will see how much other stuff goes into NET beyond margin, because I think our NET will move up a handful of spots.

 

[blust2i3d4]

LOL, Pitt jumps from low 80’s to 70 in KP after their win at Duke. We went from 76 to 75. KP definitely hates Syracuse this year. I know it has lots of credibility with fans, but its kind of a joke of an algorithm.

But our luck jump from 6th to 1st after the win. It is all about luck.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Not sure why this is unexpected. The math works based on it being a margin system. A road win at Duke is much more impressive than a home win vs Miami. Both results are great for us however tourney wise and that is the most important thing though.

As for the math.
We were supposed to beat Miami today by a few points. So we held steady.
Pitt was supposed to lose Duke by about 13 points. Pitt beat that by 16 points, they have played 18 games, so there ADJ EM will rise by about 0.9... 0.9 is basically the difference between #70 (11.2) and #80 (10.2)

I think the more interesting thing to see will be how our NET moves tomorrow. In a margin based system our ranking should have stayed neutral as it did ... we will see how much other stuff goes into NET beyond margin, because I think we will move up a handful of spots.

As stated before, over reliance on margin creates inaccuracies in his rankings. Strength of schedule (who you played, who you beat) should have a much higher weighting. I don’t know all of KP’s algorithm, but that’s a clear flaw, IMO.

 

[jncuse]

As stated before, over reliance on margin creates inaccuracies in his rankings. Strength of schedule (who you played, who you beat) should have a much higher weighting. I don’t know all of KP’s algorithm, but that’s a clear flaw, IMO.

His rankings are entirely based on margin. Its not an over reliance, its basically the system's only reliance! (adjusted to the level of your opponent of course)

Some people might not like that, and that's fair. I think margin is the best predictor, but when we have smaller samples there can be anomalies which tend to even out a bit over 30 games-- Syracuse and Pitt are some of the two biggest this year in opposite ways.

The most important thing is the NCAA tournament for the most part doesn't give a **** about your predictive rankings like KP, and chooses purely based on W's and L's based on who you beat. As they should... teams should not be selected by KP..

If you play 5 teams ranked between 50-70, and another teams plays 5 teams between 250-300, KP will not punish or reward you for that. KP will just expect you to beat those teams by "x" more if you are similarly ranked. The committee might screw you for having a bad OOC SOS (which I am fine with)

That is why I am able to tell you how much a team will move up or down right after a game is completed and before the KP is updated - because movements are purely margin based. I can do the math in my head , or throw a few numbers in my phone calculator if I get dizzy, to see how much the EM has jumped.

I'm not trying to justify the system or not (although Vegas seems to like it because they use something very similar to set up their opening lines). I'm just telling you what it does.

Remember this is a ranking system that is trying to rank 365 teams... you really have no choice to heavily use margin because so many teams have such wildly different schedule strengths due to the conference they are in.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

His rankings are entirely based on margin. Its not an over reliance, its basically his entire reliance!

And they are entirely based on how much you beat / lose to your opponent relative to your strength. If you play 5 teams ranked between 50-70, and another teams plays 5 teams between 250-300, KP will not punish or reward you for that. They will just expect you to beat those teams by more if you are similarly ranked.

That is why I am able to tell you how much a team will move up or down right after a game is completed and before the KP is updated. I can do the math in my head , or throw a few numbers in my phone calculator if I get dizzy, to see how much the EM has jumped.

I'm not trying to justify the system or not (although Vegas seems to like it because they use something very similar to set up their opening lines). I'm just telling you what it does.

Remember this is a ranking system that is trying to rank 365 teams... you really have no choice to heavily use margin because so many teams have such wildly different schedule strengths due to the conference they are in.

It’s KP’s system and it seems directionally correct, but there will always be teams that don’t “fit” (yes, I mean that mathematically) within his model. It seems Syracuse is one of those teams this year. That’s validated by rating us #1 in “luck” in his model. We’re just an anomaly to his model.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If this was the NFL and you were a big believer in scoring margin you would think we are the 2022 Minnesota Vikings.

 

[jncuse]

It’s KP’s system and it seems directionally correct, but there will always be teams that don’t “fit” (yes, I mean that mathematically) within his model. It seems Syracuse is one of those teams this year. That’s validated by rating us #1 in “luck” in his model. We’re just an anomaly to his model.

We are absolutely an anomaly right now. Not blowing out bad teams as much as we should have, and getting beat badly by good teams is messing with our KP.

Pitt is actually going the exact opposite way of us... they have benefited from more blowouts - and sure enough they have "Bad Luck". As I said before I think "Luck" is the wrong word - he should just use variance.

There will always be some outliers in a margin system, because not everything can even out good/bad for all the teams. They also tend to even out more over 31 games, or get less pronounced as each game becomes a lower % of your overall value by year end.

 

[jncuse]

I do want to state once again, that for the large part the things that are hindering our KP, and to probably a lesser but still large extent our NET, are not significant hindrances on the tournament resume we are building. As long as we keep winning at a good rate (I'm putting 8-5 out there) Sure it would have been nice to have 4 losses instead of 5. But those are expected losses.

I'm just talking as a bracket guy, which has to look at things fairly different under that exercise.

 

[jordoo]

Except math can account for everything.

Exactly my point. Math, a language humans devised to help us understand the universe is best used to disprove scientific theories. The fact that math works so well to explain so much should point scientists in a different direction than the path we have gone down since atomism became the prevailing theory, but humans like to complicate things. For instance, a pressure modularization system would be a much better explanation for the behavior of heavenly bodies than gravity.

 

[Digger]

Thanks jncuse for, as always, explaining (not defending) how the KP system works. I think most people here have a general understanding of it, but your posts have always greatly increased, at least, my understanding of the how/why.

 

[gocuse44]

A win by Oregon today would give us a second quad 1 win and probably move us up to the mid to low sixties

 

[STEVEHOLT]

quite odd how we can beat teams that can beat teams we have zero chance of even competing with.

 

[mark79]

I don’t think there is an algorithm that accounts for a sophomore laden team with many new pieces and a first year coach growing over the course of a season. So, this one calls it “luck”, because it defies his logic. I see growth. I’ve been watching sports long before these geeks started trying to ruin sports. It is simply a young team improving. It’s the best thing about college basketball, in my opinion. It’s even more fun when it’s your team improving. I’m not going to sweat the analytics, because they could never account for the things that really matter in sports.

What a great post.

 

[Rage4CUSE]

quite odd how we can beat teams that can beat teams we have zero chance of even competing with.

Basketball is as much a game of match-ups and exploiting that, as it is pure talent.

 

[Sbucketball]

We went from 76 to 69.

Pitt went from 82 to 68 for beating Duke, which helps us because away wins are q1 against top 75.

Miami dropped one spot to 64.

 

[Irt4su]

Just win baby

 

[721Comstock]

We went from 76 to 69.

Pitt went from 82 to 68 for beating Duke, which helps us because away wins are q1 against top 75.

Miami dropped one spot to 64.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Exactly my point. Math, a language humans devised to help us understand the universe is best used to disprove scientific theories. The fact that math works so well to explain so much should point scientists in a different direction than the path we have gone down since atomism became the prevailing theory, but humans like to complicate things. For instance, a pressure modularization system would be a much better explanation for the behavior of heavenly bodies than gravity.

Um, yeah man, that's like, totally what I was going to say too.

 

[sugrad68]

I'd like to know if either ranking system takes into account the losing team missing players. We beat a Miami team without their best player. Pitt beat Duke who were missing 2 starters. Pitt's victory was solid but do they win with Roach and Mitchell in the lineup? But I'm certainly glad Pitt won no matter what because it helped us.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I'd like to know if either ranking system takes into account the losing team missing players. We beat a Miami team without their best player. Pitt beat Duke who were missing 2 starters. Pitt's victory was solid but do they win with Roach and Mitchell in the lineup? But I'm certainly glad Pitt won no matter what because it helped us.

No it doesn’t.

 

[Irt4su]

Will it factor in how long Todd Burgen was out this year????

I long for the years we assumed we would be in as opposed to wishing it were so.

 

[AlaskaSU]

It should.

 

[atlanticuse]

Onuaku.
Edelin.
List goes on.
Yeah pre-NET. and also later in year.

 

[atlanticuse]

quite odd how we can beat teams that can beat teams we have zero chance of even competing with.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

 

[OrangeXtreme]