NET and KenPom Tracker 23-24 (SU = 84 3/9/24)

[jncuse]

Only 3 ACC teams projected…that’s also why I feel like 8-5 the remainder of the way is not going to be good enough, just not in this league and how competitive other teams are.
We need quality wins and the league is not providing many opportunities.

I'll put another spin on it. Per the bracket matrix, our "as of now" record is right near the line right now. We are in on 7 of 42.

So we are pretty close. 8-5 to close the season even in a modest ACC is sort of what bubble teams do... they go about .500 if they are in a better conference.. So going 8-5 we shouldn't really lose any ground,,, if anything we hold steady. So we might be right there if we go 8-5 entering conference tourney week.

With lots of teams around the bubble line in the ACC still plenty of ability to accumulate Q1 and Q2 wins. (we are going to need to get some on the road). They are going to end up getting 4 or 5 once it works its way out.

But as you suggest we are going to be inhibited by not having a marquee Q1 win. It's not a must but its very nice to have. That could be our biggest problem - but it really depends on what is going on around us That is why I have 8-5 as the squarely on the bubble number -- it's going to get us in the discussion at least.

Some dialogue as to whether there is a "Q1A" category used by the committee -- my understanding is there is, and its basically just splitting the Q1 quadrant in half. We could get some Q1 wins, but unless we take UNC at home, or take Clemson on the road (Maybe), we will not get a Q1A win.

 

[Windyfly]

I'll put another spin on it. Per the bracket matrix, our "as of now" record is right near the line right now. We are in on 7 of 42.

So we are pretty close. 8-5 to close the season even in a modest ACC is sort of what bubble teams do... they go about .500 if they are in a better conference.. So going 8-5 we shouldn't really lose any ground,,, if anything we hold steady. So we might be right there if we go 8-5 entering conference tourney week.

With lots of teams around the bubble line in the ACC still plenty of ability to accumulate Q1 and Q2 wins. (we are going to need to get some on the road). They are going to end up getting 4 or 5 once it works its way out.

But as you suggest we are going to be inhibited by not having a marquee Q1 win. It's not a must but its very nice to have. That could be our biggest problem - but it really depends on what is going on around us That is why I have 8-5 as the squarely on the bubble number -- it's going to get us in the discussion at least.

Some dialogue as to whether there is a "Q1A" category used by the committee -- my understanding is there is, and its basically just splitting the Q1 quadrant in half. We could get some Q1 wins, but unless we take UNC at home, or take Clemson on the road (Maybe), we will not get a Q1A win.

Agree. 8-5 gets us in the discussion. But I’m not sure I feel confident going into selection Sunday with that.
If we beat UNC and go 8-5 the rest of the way, then I’d feel a bit better and think that gets us in.
Otherwise there’s a lot of teams on our schedule that the “committee”, will expect us to beat considering the ACC might only get 5 teams in.
Compared to other leagues theres less room for error.
We have to take care of business and not give the selection committee a reason to leave us out.

 

[orange79]

My first attempt at bullet posting - my intentions were to go much deeper on some of those points to explain the why, but just wasting too much time with long posts on this thread recently. I was also told by admin that I would be getting paid for driving engagement but they reneged on the offer.

• Tourney selection is a human process. Not a computer process. The NET simply provides data to be help people with subjective selections. Once it comes down to the bubble there are so many ways to subjectively pick teams, and committees have went all over the place be it quality wins, bad losses.
• NET just groups information to help people subjectively make decisions. It doesn't need to be that precise. It just helps sort information to easily isolate the clear in's, If you are on the bubble your good wins get scrubbed on the borders of quads anyway.
• NET will have a lot less strange teams once conference play is done. There won't be many teams that you say hey that team should be Q1 not Q2, or in Q3, or vice versa.
• The biggest impact "Computers" have on the process is actually out of conference play. OOC record as a whole by the conference, will certainly have a big impact on who gets in Q1 and Q2, and what conferences dominate in terms of numbers in.
• But we have had the OOC discussion a lot before. It sucks that the only way to assess the best conferences is play in November and December, but since nobody plays each other after December how else can we do it?

Still failed at keeping length down, but got a lot of points out there in one post.

As I have said on this thread more than a few times in this thread, if we win the NET starts taking care of itself. And even if our NET is just middling in the 50's standalone NET is not the crucial factor for selection,

This is why I tried to start another tourney thread. Unfortunately this thread has turned to a lot of technical mumbo-jumbo at times -- and I take a lot of responsibility for those posts, and I can't stay away even though I tell myself to.

Anyway my goal for this thread is 3 line posts or less every single time.

Write what you want. Posters can scroll on by if they don't want to read the technical details.

If they still feel the overarching need to complain, we'll take care of them.

 

[OptimusOtto]

Agree. 8-5 gets us in the discussion. But I’m not sure I feel confident going into selection Sunday with that.
If we beat UNC and go 8-5 the rest of the way, then I’d feel a bit better and think that gets us in.
Otherwise there’s a lot of teams on our schedule that the “committee”, will expect us to beat considering the ACC might only get 5 teams in.
Compared to other leagues theres less room for error.
We have to take care of business and not give the selection committee a reason to leave us out.

So frustrating that you have to overcome these preseason narratives. I’m not saying the ACC is far and away the best conference in the country but it’s not the little sisters of the poor.

 

[Orangtiz]

So frustrating that you have to overcome these preseason narratives. I’m not saying the ACC is far and away the best conference in the country but it’s not the little sisters of the poor.

Agreed. The ACC has 8 final four teams in the last 8 years most of any conference. Also have won Championship 3 times in that span… most of any conference. The ACC also won the ACC/B1G challenge this year. When it matter most in March, the ACC is far and away the best conference in the country and it isn’t particularly close

 

[Cuse181]

Team Rankings gives Syracuse a 70% chance to make the tournament assuming they finish the schedule as expected (19.5-11.5 overall, 11-9 in conference). That means winning the favored games of Louisville x2, Florida State Home, Notre Dame Home, NC State Home, VT Home, and GT Away. Picking up the BC game on the road is likely where the .5 comes from as that is essentially a 50-50 game. No idea if the metrics are any good but it gives some additional context.

 

[Orangezoo]

We need to cheer Oregon on big time now down the stretch and secure us that second Quad 1 win.

LSU improving to a Q2 would be great too not sure how likely that might be.

 

[NineOneSeven]

We need to cheer Oregon on big time now down the stretch and secure us that second Quad 1 win.

LSU improving to a Q2 would be great too not sure how likely that might be.

We also are competing with Oregon for a spot, potentially.

 

[OptimusOtto]

We need to cheer Oregon on big time now down the stretch and secure us that second Quad 1 win.

LSU improving to a Q2 would be great too not sure how likely that might be.

And Pittsburgh. Big difference in our end of year sheet having those two wins as Q1 & Q2 rather than Q2 & Q3.

 

[jncuse]

Write what you want. Posters can scroll on by if they don't want to read the technical details.

If they still feel the overarching need to complain, we'll take care of them.

It actually has nothing to do with being influenced by others.

Its a rule imposed on myself for writing too many long posts recently on some technical stuff.

 

[jncuse]

We need to cheer Oregon on big time now down the stretch and secure us that second Quad 1 win.

LSU improving to a Q2 would be great too not sure how likely that might be.

If LSU can finish 10-10 in the SEC, it will almost certainly be enough to get them up from #93 to #75. NET wise the SEC is probably #2 or #3, so doing simply decent in that conference should boost your NET.

They also got 2 nice wins recently in SEC.. the 3-2 record is not all against the SEC job teams. So its quite plausible.

 

[jordoo]

It actually has nothing to do with being influenced by others.

Its a rule imposed on myself for writing too many long posts recently on some technical stuff.

I find your long posts to be valuable reads. I appreciate you sharing your specialized knowledge.

 

[jncuse]

So frustrating that you have to overcome these preseason narratives. I’m not saying the ACC is far and away the best conference in the country but it’s not the little sisters of the poor.

It's not a pre-season narrative though. The impact is based on the fact that in OOC play (overall conference records) the ACC didn't perform nearly as well as the B12 and SEC, was behind the BE and BIG, and was about the same level as Mountain West, and ahead of the P12.

• OOC play as a conference (OOC conference record) as a whole is huge in determining the structure of the tournament. When your teams as a whole play well in OOC, it solidifies the NETS for the top conferences and probably amplifies them even more once they start playing each other. The top amongst the "P6" conferences end up getting much more Q1 and Q2 victories, accompanied by NETS above 40, which is the biggest factor in getting lots of teams in.
• I didn't think it would hurt us quite as bad this year, because the gap between the ACC and the top two conferences in OOC was of some decent size, but not as huge as last year. But it has so far - let's see how it plays out could be a learning point,
• The system is what it is -- it helped the ACC when we did better in OOC, and now it does the opposite. Obviously you can say its not fair to put so much weight on November and December play, but then you how else do you do it, since teams don't play each other after that. I'm not sure what a fairer system is? I think the P6 conference teams end up liking it, because in the end it benefits them the most.
• NET doesn't have a pre-season build in component that impacts things now
• A factor that has hurt the ACC the past 2 years is that we have teams that totally crap the bed in OOC play, hurting the conference's OOC performance and NET, then they come into ACC playing much better and knock off some teams on the bubble, and hand them bad losses. Florida St went 2-10 in OOC last year, and then 7-13 in conference. This year they went 6-5, and are now 5-2. Louisville has also not helped in this regard.

 

[jncuse]

I find your long posts to be valuable reads. I appreciate you sharing your specialized knowledge.

Thank you. I just find I am spending too much time in certain aspects of this thread, and its on me.

 

[kirbivore]

We need to cheer Oregon on big time now down the stretch and secure us that second Quad 1 win.

LSU improving to a Q2 would be great too not sure how likely that might be.

That big goofball for Oregon missing a bunny to take the lead with 5 seconds left at Utah really stung.

 

[jncuse]

5 Star Betting Pick for KP Doubters tonight. Take Bowling Green
Since KP rating typically matches lines (or very close to it)

Kent St (#303 Luck) at Bowling Green -1 (#8 Luck)

Other Games not as pronounced
Kentucky (#202 Luck) at South Carolina +6 (#26 Luck)
Ohio (#362 Luck) at Akron -8 (#122 Luck)

Yes I did make the bolded picks in small plays to see what would happen. I think some of these teams due to their "luck" which I think is mislabelled as a term, have had margin outliers impact their ratings good or bad.

I'll see how it works, but it probably has more value closer to December 20th to say January 15th in theory. (Noted to myself as a system play for next year)

 

[orange79]

It actually has nothing to do with being influenced by others.

Its a rule imposed on myself for writing too many long posts recently on some technical stuff.

I, for one, like the technical stuff.

 

[two3zone]

Write what you want. Posters can scroll on by if they don't want to read the technical details.

If they still feel the overarching need to complain, we'll take care of them.

 

[wiseman3]

Stick a fork in us. This ones a killer

 

[UpstateSM]

If Yukon goes on another run this March they are going to have to close the Turning Stone Steakhouse balcony again due to me

 

[Cstate]

Dropped 14 spots

 

[jncuse]

Florida St single handedly messing up the bubble chances of every ACC team. They crap the bed OOC, which hurts the conference, and now they are taking out every team that is around the bubble taking away seeds from everybody (as of now anyway)

They now have 3 Q1 Wins, and 3 Q2 Wins, and are still a Q3 (although not far from Q2 at this point). They also have 3 bad losses.

Yes, part of it could be the NET. But that is what happens when you lose to Lipscomb at Home. And for the hell of it they will probably lose to Louisville to.

 

[Cstate]

Florida St single handedly messing up the bubble chances of every ACC team. They crap the bed OOC, which hurts the conference, and now they are taking out every team that is around the bubble taking away seeds from everybody (as of now anyway)

They now have 3 Q1 Wins, and 3 Q2 Wins, and are still a Q3 (although not far from Q2 at this point). They also have 3 bad losses.

Yes, part of it could be the NET. But that is what happens when you lose to Lipscomb at Home. And for the hell of it they will probably lose to Louisville to.

Exactly! Look at their Quad 3. Yikes. They did however move up 8 spots after what they did to us.

 

[bnoro]

Florida St single handedly messing up the bubble chances of every ACC team. They crap the bed OOC, which hurts the conference, and now they are taking out every team that is around the bubble taking away seeds from everybody (as of now anyway)

They now have 3 Q1 Wins, and 3 Q2 Wins, and are still a Q3 (although not far from Q2 at this point). They also have 3 bad losses.

Yes, part of it could be the NET. But that is what happens when you lose to Lipscomb at Home. And for the hell of it they will probably lose to Louisville to.

Now that they're healthy they're showing they're a good basketball team. If I had to guess they'll end up in the tournament this year. Probably a Q2 when all is said and done.

 

[PoppyHart]

What’s the over under on ACC bids? 3.5 or 4.5?