SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 33,676
- Like
- 64,818
I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 17NP in 40 minutes season: 365NP in 979 minutes per 40: 14.9
C. J. Fair………………. 12NP in 35 minutes season: 332NP in 1054 minutes per 40: 12.6
Baye Moussa Keita 10NP in 30 minutes season: 93NP in 415 minutes per 40: 9.0
Jerami Grant……….. 3NP in 13 minutes season: 334NP in 854 minutes per 40: 15.6
Trevor Cooney…… 2NP in 38 minutes season: 295NP in 906 minutes per 40: 13.0
Michael Gbinije …. -5NP in 27 minutes season: 95NP in 389 minutes per 40: 9.8
Rakeem Christmas -5NP in 12 minutes season: 216NP in 641 minutes per 40: 13.5
DNP
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 122 minutes per 40: 6.2
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: We now have one player averaging more than 15NP per 40 minutes, although several are close to that. The only year that we didn’t have a 15NP/40 player was 2005-06, the year that GMAC had to perform his miracles to get us into the NCAA tournament. That year Terence Roberts was 14.5, GMAC 14.2, Mookie Watkins 13.9, Demetris Nichols 13.1 and Eric Devendorf 11.1. We wound up 23-12. Somehow, this year we are 26-2.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 12 times. Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair have led 5 times, Rakeem Christmas and Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 10 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds. They had 6 offensive and 28 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 10 of 38 times, (26.3%). When they missed, they got the ball 6 of 28 times (21.4%). We’ve averaged getting 38.9% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.0% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 20 times in 28 games.
Of our 11 turnovers,6 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 8 were Syracuse steals and 10 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 24 of 28 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 138 turnovers on the season, (255-393) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (134-161). We have had single digit turnovers in 12 of 15 ACC games and no more than 11 of them in any conference game. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 32 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 50 “manufactured possessions”. They had 34 + 11= 45, so we were +5. We’ve won that battle 24 times this season in 28 games, with an average margin of +8.7. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s a big reason we are 26-2.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 18 for 41, (.439) inside the arc, 6 for 19, (.316) outside it and 10 for 14 (.500) from the line. They were 6 for 18 (.333), 8/22 (.364) and 19/27 (.704). Through the first Duke game, we were shooting 50.2% inside the arc. We haven’t shot 50% in any game since, averaging 41.3% (118 for 286). It’s not just clanging three pointers that has slowed us down.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .479/.346/.703, the opposition .450/.341/.659. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 44 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .479-.450 = +29. If we’d have shot .571 inside the arc this year, (and the 2010 team did), we’d have scored 206 more points. That would have made this year’s games a little easier to take.
We had 57 points, (we have now scored 61, 57, 58, 56, 59, 60 and 57 points in successive games), 14 in the paint, 18from the arc and 3 from the line so we scored 22 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. That 22 TZ points was the most we’ve scored all year. They had 55-10-24-19= 2 points in the Twilight Zone, so that’s where we won this game from. Overall, we had 40 POP: Points Outside the Paint, (our most since 47 in the Virginia Tech game) to 26 for them. There’s your ball game. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
7 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.292) and 7 of their 14 (.500). For the year we are assisting on 50.9% of our baskets to 64.0% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 24 of 28 games,26 of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 10 OREBs + 11 TOs + (.475 x 6) = 63.85 possessions. They were 40 -6 + 18 + (.475 x 27) = 64.825 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions in which we scored 57 points, (0.891) and 65 possessions in which they scored 55 points, (0.846). For the year we are 1.130 vs. 0.961. In the last 7 games we are averaging 1.010 points per possession, compared to 1.167 in the 21 games before that. Jim Boeheim said in his presser that all our ACC games have been like this.. We’ve won by 5, 20, 10, 12, 5, 12, 10, 2, 6, 13, 2, 1, lost by 3 in OT, lost by 6 and won by 2. No, Jim they haven’t all been like these last five. We’ve won 6 ACC games by double figures and this one should have been #7.
We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 129, so it was a faster paced game than we’ve been having. 0.891 was our worst offensive outing of the year. If we’d averaged per possession what we had averaged going into the game, offensively and defensively, this would have been a 73-63 game. The quality of play of both teams reduced that to a 57-55 mess.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 18-11, 14-13, 12-8, 12-23. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-15, 17-16, 18.5-16. We’ve won 69 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 36 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 74 of 108 quarters and held the opposition under that 60 times. But we’ve only score 15 in 10 of our last 28 quarters, (since the first Duke game).
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 20 points and 3 assists for 23 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 12 times and CJ Fair has done it 10 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Trevor Cooney sat us down in the first half with a trey 1:11 in to the half. CJ Fair did it with a dunk 1:17 into the half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 17 times, Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney 10 times, Rakeem Christmas 9 times, and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. 5:42 first half vs. Boston College. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half), 1:17 vs. Maryland (second half), 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half) and 1:11 vs. Maryland, (first half)
Fouls
We’ve been talking about a stat based on the assumption that a team that attempts more two point shots is more likely to get fouled than a team that attempts more three point shots. Of course, two point shots don’t necessarily mean that you are “going to the basket”. We had 22 points in the “twilight zone in the Maryland game. We average only 8. But we still had more points in the paint, 14-10 and yet they went to the foul line 27 times to 6 for us. In the two games we’ve played so far on this road trip, we’ve attempted 94 two points shots and 28 three point shots. We’ve scored 44 points in the paint. Duke and Maryland have taken 45 two points shots and 43 three point shots and score 38 points in the paint. Yet we got fouled 28 times and attempted 20 free throws and the Duke/Maryland got fouled 39 times and attempted 52 free throws. That seems out of whack.
In the 13 non-conference games we attempted more two pointers 12 times and got fouled more 11 times. We averaged 40 vs. 20 with a percentage of .496, (524 vs. 260). The opposition averaged 27 vs. 17 with a percentage of .619. (352 vs. 218). We’ve averaged 35 points in the paint vs. 20 fouls is .571. The opposition has averaged 22 PIP vs. 17 fouls, (.773).
In the15 conference games we’ve had more two point attempts 11 times, fewer twice and two games were even. We’ve been fouled more 8 times, fewer 4 times with 3 even. We’ve averaged 40 vs. 17 with a percentage of .416, (596 vs. 248). Our opposition has averaged 27 vs. 15 with a percentage of .539, (410 vs. 221). We’ve averaged 26 points in the paint vs. 17 fouls is .654. The opposition has averaged 20 PIP vs. 15 fouls, (.750)
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 17NP in 40 minutes season: 365NP in 979 minutes per 40: 14.9
C. J. Fair………………. 12NP in 35 minutes season: 332NP in 1054 minutes per 40: 12.6
Baye Moussa Keita 10NP in 30 minutes season: 93NP in 415 minutes per 40: 9.0
Jerami Grant……….. 3NP in 13 minutes season: 334NP in 854 minutes per 40: 15.6
Trevor Cooney…… 2NP in 38 minutes season: 295NP in 906 minutes per 40: 13.0
Michael Gbinije …. -5NP in 27 minutes season: 95NP in 389 minutes per 40: 9.8
Rakeem Christmas -5NP in 12 minutes season: 216NP in 641 minutes per 40: 13.5
DNP
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 122 minutes per 40: 6.2
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: We now have one player averaging more than 15NP per 40 minutes, although several are close to that. The only year that we didn’t have a 15NP/40 player was 2005-06, the year that GMAC had to perform his miracles to get us into the NCAA tournament. That year Terence Roberts was 14.5, GMAC 14.2, Mookie Watkins 13.9, Demetris Nichols 13.1 and Eric Devendorf 11.1. We wound up 23-12. Somehow, this year we are 26-2.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 12 times. Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair have led 5 times, Rakeem Christmas and Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 10 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds. They had 6 offensive and 28 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 10 of 38 times, (26.3%). When they missed, they got the ball 6 of 28 times (21.4%). We’ve averaged getting 38.9% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.0% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 20 times in 28 games.
Of our 11 turnovers,6 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 8 were Syracuse steals and 10 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 24 of 28 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 138 turnovers on the season, (255-393) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (134-161). We have had single digit turnovers in 12 of 15 ACC games and no more than 11 of them in any conference game. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 32 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 50 “manufactured possessions”. They had 34 + 11= 45, so we were +5. We’ve won that battle 24 times this season in 28 games, with an average margin of +8.7. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s a big reason we are 26-2.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 18 for 41, (.439) inside the arc, 6 for 19, (.316) outside it and 10 for 14 (.500) from the line. They were 6 for 18 (.333), 8/22 (.364) and 19/27 (.704). Through the first Duke game, we were shooting 50.2% inside the arc. We haven’t shot 50% in any game since, averaging 41.3% (118 for 286). It’s not just clanging three pointers that has slowed us down.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .479/.346/.703, the opposition .450/.341/.659. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 44 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .479-.450 = +29. If we’d have shot .571 inside the arc this year, (and the 2010 team did), we’d have scored 206 more points. That would have made this year’s games a little easier to take.
We had 57 points, (we have now scored 61, 57, 58, 56, 59, 60 and 57 points in successive games), 14 in the paint, 18from the arc and 3 from the line so we scored 22 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. That 22 TZ points was the most we’ve scored all year. They had 55-10-24-19= 2 points in the Twilight Zone, so that’s where we won this game from. Overall, we had 40 POP: Points Outside the Paint, (our most since 47 in the Virginia Tech game) to 26 for them. There’s your ball game. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
7 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.292) and 7 of their 14 (.500). For the year we are assisting on 50.9% of our baskets to 64.0% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 24 of 28 games,26 of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 10 OREBs + 11 TOs + (.475 x 6) = 63.85 possessions. They were 40 -6 + 18 + (.475 x 27) = 64.825 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions in which we scored 57 points, (0.891) and 65 possessions in which they scored 55 points, (0.846). For the year we are 1.130 vs. 0.961. In the last 7 games we are averaging 1.010 points per possession, compared to 1.167 in the 21 games before that. Jim Boeheim said in his presser that all our ACC games have been like this.. We’ve won by 5, 20, 10, 12, 5, 12, 10, 2, 6, 13, 2, 1, lost by 3 in OT, lost by 6 and won by 2. No, Jim they haven’t all been like these last five. We’ve won 6 ACC games by double figures and this one should have been #7.
We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 129, so it was a faster paced game than we’ve been having. 0.891 was our worst offensive outing of the year. If we’d averaged per possession what we had averaged going into the game, offensively and defensively, this would have been a 73-63 game. The quality of play of both teams reduced that to a 57-55 mess.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 18-11, 14-13, 12-8, 12-23. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-15, 17-16, 18.5-16. We’ve won 69 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 36 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 74 of 108 quarters and held the opposition under that 60 times. But we’ve only score 15 in 10 of our last 28 quarters, (since the first Duke game).
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 20 points and 3 assists for 23 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 12 times and CJ Fair has done it 10 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Trevor Cooney sat us down in the first half with a trey 1:11 in to the half. CJ Fair did it with a dunk 1:17 into the half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 17 times, Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney 10 times, Rakeem Christmas 9 times, and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. 5:42 first half vs. Boston College. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half), 1:17 vs. Maryland (second half), 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half) and 1:11 vs. Maryland, (first half)
Fouls
We’ve been talking about a stat based on the assumption that a team that attempts more two point shots is more likely to get fouled than a team that attempts more three point shots. Of course, two point shots don’t necessarily mean that you are “going to the basket”. We had 22 points in the “twilight zone in the Maryland game. We average only 8. But we still had more points in the paint, 14-10 and yet they went to the foul line 27 times to 6 for us. In the two games we’ve played so far on this road trip, we’ve attempted 94 two points shots and 28 three point shots. We’ve scored 44 points in the paint. Duke and Maryland have taken 45 two points shots and 43 three point shots and score 38 points in the paint. Yet we got fouled 28 times and attempted 20 free throws and the Duke/Maryland got fouled 39 times and attempted 52 free throws. That seems out of whack.
In the 13 non-conference games we attempted more two pointers 12 times and got fouled more 11 times. We averaged 40 vs. 20 with a percentage of .496, (524 vs. 260). The opposition averaged 27 vs. 17 with a percentage of .619. (352 vs. 218). We’ve averaged 35 points in the paint vs. 20 fouls is .571. The opposition has averaged 22 PIP vs. 17 fouls, (.773).
In the15 conference games we’ve had more two point attempts 11 times, fewer twice and two games were even. We’ve been fouled more 8 times, fewer 4 times with 3 even. We’ve averaged 40 vs. 17 with a percentage of .416, (596 vs. 248). Our opposition has averaged 27 vs. 15 with a percentage of .539, (410 vs. 221). We’ve averaged 26 points in the paint vs. 17 fouls is .654. The opposition has averaged 20 PIP vs. 15 fouls, (.750)