Net Points, etc.: Pittsburgh | Syracusefan.com

Net Points, etc.: Pittsburgh

SWC75

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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.


The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.


Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.


Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):


Tyler Ennis………….. 16NP in 40 minutes season: 252NP in 605 minutes per 40: 16.6

Rakeem Christmas 15NP in 29 minutes season: 129NP in 375 minutes per 40: 13.8

Jerami Grant……….. 12NP in 40 minutes season: 213NP in 509 minutes per 40: 16.7

C. J. Fair………………. 9NP in 40 minutes season: 222NP in 655 minutes per 40: 13.6

Baye Moussa Keita 2NP in 11 minutes season: 57NP in 295 minutes per 40: 7.7

Trevor Cooney…… 2NP in 32 minutes season: 206NP in 554 minutes per 40: 14.9

Michael Gbinije …. 1NP in 8 minutes season: 77NP in 236 minutes per 40: 13.1

DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4

Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6

Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 18NP in 96 minutes per 40: 7.5

B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8


Comment: Trevor Cooney’s numbers are fading a big but still strong. Tyler Ennis’ numbers are excellent for a point guard but not on the level of a Pearl Washington or Sherman Douglas who reached 20.9 and 21.1 for full seasons. Of course with Tyler it’s not what he does but when he does it that counts. Still, the overall statistical picture of this team is of a team with a lot of good but no great players. Out national championship team had Carmmelo Anthony at 22.9 and Hakim Warrick at 19.5NP/40. The 1986-87 team that should have won the title had Rony Seikaly at 22.4, Douglas at 21.1 and Derrick Coleman at 19.5. The 1988-89 team, which may have been our best ever, had Coleman at an incredible 28.5, Douglas at 20.3, Stevie Thompson at 19.9 and Billy Owens at 18.3. Our 1995-96 that took Kentucky to the limit in the title game was mediocre overall but had John Wallace at 22.6, carrying us on our back. There’s nobody like that on this team. This is a solid team that finds a way to win but not a powerhouse team that gives the opponent no chance to win.


Tyler Ennis has led in net points 9 times, no mean feat for a guard, (but also a comment on what we’ve got up front, where our leaders would normally come from). Trevor Cooney has led 4 times and CJ Fair led 3 times. Rakeem Christmas has led twice and DaJuan Coleman and Jerami Grant once.


Possession:


Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 4 offensive and 20 defensive rebounds. They had 16 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball only 4 of 23 times, (17.3%). When they missed, they got the ball 16 of 36 times (44.4%). It wasn’t just their offensive rebounding. It was our lack of it. We’ve averaged getting 39.6% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.5% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 13 times in 18 games. It was the first time we’d lost the rebound battle since the St. John’s game and by far the worst we’d lost it all year.


Of our 9 turnovers, 2 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 11 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 4 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (175-280) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (93-109). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt. But this was the first game where we were unable to make up for a rebounding deficit with steals and turnovers.


If you add our 24 rebounds to their 11 turnovers, we had 35 “manufactured possessions”. They had 35 + 9 = 44, so we were -9. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except this and the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +10.5. We’ve won by double figures 11 times. It’s the main reason we wee 17-0 but we had to find another way to win to go 18-0.


Shooting:


It’s still what the game is all about. And it won this game for us- but not on outside jump shots. We were 17 for 26, (.654) inside the arc- an incredible percentage against a great defensive team like Pitt, (would we have been able to do that under last year’s rules?), 4 for 15, (.267), outside it and 13 for 18 (.722) from the line. They were 13/33, (.394)- a great defensive effort against a team known for its inside passing, 5/14 (.357) and 13/23 (.565). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .507/.346/.697, the opposition .476/.329/.662. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 35 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .507-.476 = +31.


We had 59 points, 32 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 13 from the line so we scored only 2 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 54-24-15-13 =2 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had only 14 POP: Points Outside the Paint to only 17 for them. It wasn’t a shooter’s game- it was a drivers game. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5. Pitt had 19 “second chance” points to 2 for us. I there had been no offensive rounds, we’d have won 57-35.


11 of our 21 baskets were assisted (.524) and 10 of their 18 (.556). For the year we are assisting on 51.6% of our baskets to 64.1% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 15 of 18 games, all of which we’ve won.


You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 41 FGA -4 OREBs + 9 TOs + (.475 x 18) = 54.55 possessions. They were 47 –16 + 11 + (.475 x 23) = 52.925 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 54 possessions in which we scored 59 points, (1.093) and 53 possessions in which they scored 54 points, (1.019. For the year we are 1.158 vs. 0.939. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 18-0. We’ve averaged 124 total possessions per game this year but have been below that in every ACC game, (107 in this one), suggesting that our hopes of more wide-open, fast paced games in this conference may not come to pass.


Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 15-12, 10-9, 16-17, 18-16. The average for the season is: 17-14, 19-15, 17-15, 18-14. We’ve won 48 quarters, lost 18 and tied 6. We’ve scored at least 15 in 56 of 72 quarters and held the opposition under that 39 times.


Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 16 points and 3 assists for 19 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Tyler Ennis has led 8 times and CJ Fair have done it 7 times, Trevor Cooney 4 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.


I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Jerami Grant sat us down in both halves with jumpers at 2.13 of the first half 1:38 into the second half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 11 times, Tyler 8 times, Trevor Cooney 6 times, DaJuan Coleman 5 times, and Rakeem Christmas 4 times and Grant those two times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).


Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), and 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half)
 
Your Net Points, especially the comparison to past players really reiterates to me how cautious this team is playing. Not only how long we are milking the shot clock but also how focused JB is on valuing every possession and not wanting to turn it over. I see nearly everyone has noticed on this board how Ennis is hesitant to push it on a potential fast break opportunity. I cant help but think this is part of JBs master plan of limiting turnovers, altho i could be way off. Obviously so far this slow down play has been effective as we are undefeated, but i cant help but think, the way we play low scoring games and let teams hang around (altho not on purpose) will eventually cost us a loss or two in the acc. We just dont get separation and put good teams away the way the teams of the past that you mention did. And that is obviously reflected in scoring margin and Net Points. But having said all that i have no complaints as i think JB knows what hes doing as he builds this team for the post season. No question in my mind JB obviously wants to win the acc, but i cant help but think after his Big East comment after the pitt game that he is beginning to think about an even bigger prize...
 
Your Net Points, especially the comparison to past players really reiterates to me how cautious this team is playing. Not only how long we are milking the shot clock but also how focused JB is on valuing every possession and not wanting to turn it over. I see nearly everyone has noticed on this board how Ennis is hesitant to push it on a potential fast break opportunity. I cant help but think this is part of JBs master plan of limiting turnovers, altho i could be way off. Obviously so far this slow down play has been effective as we are undefeated, but i cant help but think, the way we play low scoring games and let teams hang around (altho not on purpose) will eventually cost us a loss or two in the acc. We just dont get separation and put good teams away the way the teams of the past that you mention did. And that is obviously reflected in scoring margin and Net Points. But having said all that i have no complaints as i think JB knows what hes doing as he builds this team for the post season. No question in my mind JB obviously wants to win the acc, but i cant help but think after his Big East comment after the pitt game that he is beginning to think about an even bigger prize...
And i am not predicting only two losses in acc, just saying not putting teams away earlier could cost us a couple losses against teams maybe we should have beat
 
SWC awesome stuff, these and your upside/downside are some of the best reads on the site.

1 thing that just occurred to me after reading some good insight into our defensive prowess and how we should be making sure we are using per/possession numbers since a game with 20% fewer possessions will have 20% fewer points thus making nominal defensive numbers look better than they might be.

I think we should also account to this in net points to make comparisons across time periods. If our current team is playing at a 20% slower pace than the Sherman teams then we should probably take our net points and divide them by .8 thus normalizing for possessions

i am not asking you to do this, just offering a thought on why we appear to be having a great year but when net points are looked at, it doesn't seem to align with other elite years.

thanks again brother
 
What he said
SWC awesome stuff, these and your upside/downside are some of the best reads on the site.

1 thing that just occurred to me after reading some good insight into our defensive prowess and how we should be making sure we are using per/possession numbers since a game with 20% fewer possessions will have 20% fewer points thus making nominal defensive numbers look better than they might be.

I think we should also account to this in net points to make comparisons across time periods. If our current team is playing at a 20% slower pace than the Sherman teams then we should probably take our net points and divide them by .8 thus normalizing for possessions

i am not asking you to do this, just offering a thought on why we appear to be having a great year but when net points are looked at, it doesn't seem to align with other elite years.

thanks again brother
 
"This is a solid team that finds a way to win but not a powerhouse team that gives the opponent no chance to win. "

True and insightful as always. Our "saving grace" is that we five very good players who are capable of carrying the team on any given night. So even when two or three are having an off night, we are still in the game.
 
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SWC awesome stuff, these and your upside/downside are some of the best reads on the site.

1 thing that just occurred to me after reading some good insight into our defensive prowess and how we should be making sure we are using per/possession numbers since a game with 20% fewer possessions will have 20% fewer points thus making nominal defensive numbers look better than they might be.

I think we should also account to this in net points to make comparisons across time periods. If our current team is playing at a 20% slower pace than the Sherman teams then we should probably take our net points and divide them by .8 thus normalizing for possessions

i am not asking you to do this, just offering a thought on why we appear to be having a great year but when net points are looked at, it doesn't seem to align with other elite years.

thanks again brother


It's a good thought and I invite any reader to do what he wants to with these numbers. Maybe when I get a chance I'll figure out to the possessions for each team on the SU athletics website , (rhey have all the relevant numbers back to 1982-83) and see what the adjustments would look like. http://suathletics.syr.edu/sports/2009/2/3/sidebar_52.aspx?path=mbasket

Right now I'm doing the laundry.
 
I would have to believe that Ennis has the highest per possession net point of any SU guard ever. I mean the guys ahead of him on net points were usually playing at a much higher pace.
 
Your Net Points, especially the comparison to past players really reiterates to me how cautious this team is playing. Not only how long we are milking the shot clock but also how focused JB is on valuing every possession and not wanting to turn it over. I see nearly everyone has noticed on this board how Ennis is hesitant to push it on a potential fast break opportunity. I cant help but think this is part of JBs master plan of limiting turnovers, altho i could be way off. Obviously so far this slow down play has been effective as we are undefeated, but i cant help but think, the way we play low scoring games and let teams hang around (altho not on purpose) will eventually cost us a loss or two in the acc. We just dont get separation and put good teams away the way the teams of the past that you mention did. And that is obviously reflected in scoring margin and Net Points. But having said all that i have no complaints as i think JB knows what hes doing as he builds this team for the post season. No question in my mind JB obviously wants to win the acc, but i cant help but think after his Big East comment after the pitt game that he is beginning to think about an even bigger prize...


I think it's less a "master plan" to control turnovers as it is a willingness to let the other team dictate the pace of the game. We've been very good at winning the type of game the other team wants to play but I really wish we would assert our own will on these games a bit more than we do.
 
I would have to believe that Ennis has the highest per possession net point of any SU guard ever. I mean the guys ahead of him on net points were usually playing at a much higher pace.


Keep in mind that a higher pace might increase the negatives, as well as the positives.
 
Your Net Points, especially the comparison to past players really reiterates to me how cautious this team is playing. Not only how long we are milking the shot clock but also how focused JB is on valuing every possession and not wanting to turn it over. I see nearly everyone has noticed on this board how Ennis is hesitant to push it on a potential fast break opportunity. I cant help but think this is part of JBs master plan of limiting turnovers, altho i could be way off. Obviously so far this slow down play has been effective as we are undefeated, but i cant help but think, the way we play low scoring games and let teams hang around (altho not on purpose) will eventually cost us a loss or two in the acc. We just dont get separation and put good teams away the way the teams of the past that you mention did. And that is obviously reflected in scoring margin and Net Points. But having said all that i have no complaints as i think JB knows what hes doing as he builds this team for the post season. No question in my mind JB obviously wants to win the acc, but i cant help but think after his Big East comment after the pitt game that he is beginning to think about an even bigger prize...

There are a number of explanations for this.

Tyler Ennis is as efficient directing our half-court offensive possessions as any point guard Boeheim has coached.

It plays to this teams strengths and minimizes our weaknesses.

This team needs for our starters to play more minutes than recent starting lineups. Our subs just aren't providing a lot of productive minutes off the bench thus far. Most importantly, we just don't have anyone on our bench who can come in and provide an offensive uplift so almost all of our scoring comes from the starters. There is no Andy Rautins. Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph, Dion Waiters, or James Sutherland coming off the bench this season. This really impacts our offensive numbers and our game strategies.

We have fewer players that can knock down shots from the perimeter with any consistency. Syracuse had more outside shooters that could hit 3s in recent years than we have on this squad. We are going to make fewer 3-pointers this season so scoring is going to be down.

Given the offensive potential of this team and the lack of quality offensive production from our bench players, I think Jim Boeheim is doing a masterful job of coaching this year's team. You have to recognize your team's strengths and weaknesses and try to reach your team's maximum potential from what you have to work with.

The team doesn't have the makeup to outscore everybody we play so our coaching staff is trying to devise a game plan that will work to our advantage. I'm sure Boeheim would love to rest his starters more and have the subs give us more of a lift on offense, but he's doing an amazing job with his coaching strategies this season.

Go Cuse!
 
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Keep in mind that a higher pace might increase the negatives, as well as the positives.

This is where I was thinking the ass to turn over rate as well as his steels rate would add up. He minimizes the negatives.
 
There are a number of explanations for this.

Tyler Ennis is as efficient directing our half-court offensive possessions as any point court Boeheim has coached.

It plays to this teams strengths and minimizes our weaknesses.

This team needs for our starters to play more minutes than recent starting lineups. Our subs just aren't providing a lot of productive minutes off the bench thus far. Most importantly, we just don't have anyone on our bench who can come in and provide an offensive uplift so almost all of our scoring comes from the starters. There is no Andy Rautins. Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph, Dion Waiters, or James Sutherland coming off the bench this season. This really impacts our offensive numbers and our game strategies.

We have fewer players that can knock down shots from the perimeter with any consistency. Syracuse had more outside shooters that could hit 3s in recent years than we have on this squad. We are going to make fewer 3-pointers this season so scoring is going to be down.

Given the offensive potential of this team and the lack of quality offensive production from our bench players, I think Jim Boeheim is doing a masterful job of coaching this year's team. You have to recognize your team's strengths and weaknesses and try to reach your team's maximum potential from what you have to work with.

The team doesn't have the makeup to outscore everybody we play so our coaching staff is trying to devise a game plan that will work to our advantage. I'm sure Boeheim would love to rest his starters more and have the subs give us more of a lift on offense, but he's doing an amazing job with his coaching strategies this season.

Go Cuse!
I agree i definitely think JB is playing slow down to rest the starters. I am not as bleak on the bench as you. Both Keita and Gbinje have outstanding plus minuses this season. For ex, four of the last five games when Gbinje has come in for Cooney the lead has grown. But its JBs team and everyone else as he says can go get their own team. go Cuse
 
I agree i definitely think JB is playing slow down to rest the starters. I am not as bleak on the bench as you. Both Keita and Gbinje have outstanding plus minuses this season. For ex, four of the last five games when Gbinje has come in for Cooney the lead has grown. But its JBs team and everyone else as he says can go get their own team. go Cuse
Actually that was an incorrect statement, i believe when MG came in for TC in the first half of Pitt game, the Deficit went from three points to two points, but still a slight improvement
 
I agree i definitely think JB is playing slow down to rest the starters. I am not as bleak on the bench as you. Both Keita and Gbinje have outstanding plus minuses this season. For ex, four of the last five games when Gbinje has come in for Cooney the lead has grown. But its JBs team and everyone else as he says can go get their own team. go Cuse
And Roberson has a modest plus 4 plus minus in the three acc games he has played. Which suggests he is not a liability in his limited minutes
 
I agree i definitely think JB is playing slow down to rest the starters. I am not as bleak on the bench as you. Both Keita and Gbinje have outstanding plus minuses this season. For ex, four of the last five games when Gbinje has come in for Cooney the lead has grown. But its JBs team and everyone else as he says can go get their own team. go Cuse

Oh man, I did not intend to sound bleak about our bench. I recognize the contributions we are getting from the bench, especially
Keita. I was just pointing out that there is no Joseph, Waiters or Sutherland coming off the bench providing an uplift on offensive.

Bleak is the furthest thing from my mind. I understand our limitations and am extremely excited about this team.

Go Cuse!
 
Oh man, I did not intend to sound bleak about our bench. I recognize the contributions we are getting from the bench, especially
Keita. I was just pointing out that there is no Joseph, Waiters or Sutherland coming off the bench providing an uplift on offensive.

Bleak is the furthest thing from my mind. I understand our limitations and am extremely excited about this team.

Go Cuse!
True enough!
 
Oh man, I did not intend to sound bleak about our bench. I recognize the contributions we are getting from the bench, especially
Keita. I was just pointing out that there is no Joseph, Waiters or Sutherland coming off the bench providing an uplift on offensive.

Bleak is the furthest thing from my mind. I understand our limitations and am extremely excited about this team.

Go Cuse!
To me that is a puzzle, if DC becomes healthy again (according to official reports), will he actually play? I have no idea but it doesnt look good for the big guy at the moment
 
I expect Coleman will get playing time once he is healthy but the number of minutes he will see will be dictated by what he does when he is out on the court. Boeheim will clearly try to utilize him more against opponents whose strength is in the frontcourt. He can provide a valuable breather for our forwards if nothing else.

Go Cuse!
 
I expect Coleman will get playing time once he is healthy but the number of minutes he will see will be dictated by what he does when he is out on the court. Boeheim will clearly try to utilize him more against opponents whose strength is in the frontcourt. He can provide a valuable breather for our forwards if nothing else.

Go Cuse!

Pitt is a perfect squad for Coleman's size downlow.
 

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