SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 37 minutes season: 229NP in 546 minutes per 40: 16.8
C. J. Fair………………. 14NP in 40 minutes season: 236NP in 695 minutes per 40: 13.6
Tyler Ennis………….. 13NP in 37 minutes season: 265NP in 642 minutes per 40: 16.5
Trevor Cooney…… 10NP in 37 minutes season: 216NP in 591 minutes per 40: 14.6
Baye Moussa Keita 6NP in 19 minutes season: 63NP in 314 minutes per 40: 8.0
Rakeem Christmas 3NP in 21 minutes season: 132NP in 396 minutes per 40: 13.3
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 6 minutes season: 77NP in 242 minutes per 40: 12.7
Tyler Roberson……. -1NP in 3 minutes season: 17NP in 99 minutes per 40: 6.9
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8
Comment: Jerami Grant is really coming on right now and will only get better from here on IMHO. He’s only led in net points twice but he will in a lot more games before this is over. CJ Fair needs to do better. He was 16.3 last year. When we have Christmas, Grant, Fair, Cooney and Ennis on the floor, everybody is averaging at least 13.3NP/40. Only two teams since 1982-83, (that’s how far back the SU website numbers go), have done better than that: the 2003-04 team who were defending national champions and the 2011-12 team that went 34-3.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 9 times, no mean feat for a guard, (but also a comment on what we’ve got up front, where our leaders would normally come from). Trevor Cooney has led 4 times and CJ Fair led 3 times. Rakeem Christmas and Jerami Grant have led twice and DaJuan Coleman once.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. They had 5 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 33 times, (42.4%). When they missed, they got the ball 5 of 30 times (16.7%). It wasn’t just their offensive rebounding. It was our lack of it. We’ve averaged getting 40.5% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.5% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 14 times in 19 games
Of our 5 turnovers, 1 was their steal and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 5 turnovers, 5 were Syracuse steals and none were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (180-285) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (97-109). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 39 rebounds to their 5 turnovers, we had 44 “manufactured possessions”. They had 24 + 5 = 29, so we were +15. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except Pittsburgh and the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +10.7. We’ve won by double figures 12 times. It’s the main reason we are 19-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. And it won this game for us- but not on outside jump shots. We were 16 for 36, (.444) inside the arc, 5 for 11, (.455), outside it and 17 for 27 (.630) from the line. They were 9/29, (.310), 9/17 (.529) and 7/11 (.636). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .504/.350/.693, the opposition .467/.337/.661. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 32 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .504-.467 = +37.
We had 64 points, 24 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 17 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 52-8-27-7 =10 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 23 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 37 for them. We won this game in the paint and on the boards- and they are a big team. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 27/5. We had 13 “second chance” points to 3 for them. I there had been no offensive rounds, we’d have won 51-49.
9 of our 21 baskets were assisted (.429) and 12 of their 18 (.667). For the year we are assisting on 51.3% of our baskets to 64.3% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 16 of 19 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 47 FGA -14 OREBs + 5 TOs + (.475 x 27) = 50.825 possessions. They were 46 –5 + 5 + (.475 x 11) = 51.225 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 51 possessions in which we scored 64 points, (1.255) and 51 possessions in which they scored 52 points, (1.020). For the year we are 1.162 vs. 0.943. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 19-0. We’ve averaged 123 total possessions per game this year but have been below that in every ACC game, (102 in this one), suggesting that our hopes of more wide-open, fast paced games in this conference may not come to pass.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 19-8, 12-18, 13-15, 20-11. The average for the season is: 17-14, 18-15, 17-15, 19-14. We’ve won 50 quarters, lost 20 and tied 6. We’ve scored at least 15 in 58 of 76 quarters and held the opposition under that 41 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 14 points and 4 assists for 18 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Tyler Ennis has led 9 times and CJ Fair have done it 7 times, Trevor Cooney 4 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Tyler Ennis sat us down in the first half with a jumper 54 seconds in. Rakeem Christmas did it with a lay-up 1:12 into the second half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 11 times, Tyler 9 times, Trevor Cooney 6 times, DaJuan Coleman and Rakeem Christmas 5 times and Grant those two times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and 1:12 vs. Miami in the second game (second half)
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 37 minutes season: 229NP in 546 minutes per 40: 16.8
C. J. Fair………………. 14NP in 40 minutes season: 236NP in 695 minutes per 40: 13.6
Tyler Ennis………….. 13NP in 37 minutes season: 265NP in 642 minutes per 40: 16.5
Trevor Cooney…… 10NP in 37 minutes season: 216NP in 591 minutes per 40: 14.6
Baye Moussa Keita 6NP in 19 minutes season: 63NP in 314 minutes per 40: 8.0
Rakeem Christmas 3NP in 21 minutes season: 132NP in 396 minutes per 40: 13.3
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 6 minutes season: 77NP in 242 minutes per 40: 12.7
Tyler Roberson……. -1NP in 3 minutes season: 17NP in 99 minutes per 40: 6.9
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8
Comment: Jerami Grant is really coming on right now and will only get better from here on IMHO. He’s only led in net points twice but he will in a lot more games before this is over. CJ Fair needs to do better. He was 16.3 last year. When we have Christmas, Grant, Fair, Cooney and Ennis on the floor, everybody is averaging at least 13.3NP/40. Only two teams since 1982-83, (that’s how far back the SU website numbers go), have done better than that: the 2003-04 team who were defending national champions and the 2011-12 team that went 34-3.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 9 times, no mean feat for a guard, (but also a comment on what we’ve got up front, where our leaders would normally come from). Trevor Cooney has led 4 times and CJ Fair led 3 times. Rakeem Christmas and Jerami Grant have led twice and DaJuan Coleman once.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. They had 5 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 33 times, (42.4%). When they missed, they got the ball 5 of 30 times (16.7%). It wasn’t just their offensive rebounding. It was our lack of it. We’ve averaged getting 40.5% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.5% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 14 times in 19 games
Of our 5 turnovers, 1 was their steal and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 5 turnovers, 5 were Syracuse steals and none were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (180-285) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (97-109). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 39 rebounds to their 5 turnovers, we had 44 “manufactured possessions”. They had 24 + 5 = 29, so we were +15. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except Pittsburgh and the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +10.7. We’ve won by double figures 12 times. It’s the main reason we are 19-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. And it won this game for us- but not on outside jump shots. We were 16 for 36, (.444) inside the arc, 5 for 11, (.455), outside it and 17 for 27 (.630) from the line. They were 9/29, (.310), 9/17 (.529) and 7/11 (.636). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .504/.350/.693, the opposition .467/.337/.661. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 32 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .504-.467 = +37.
We had 64 points, 24 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 17 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 52-8-27-7 =10 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 23 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 37 for them. We won this game in the paint and on the boards- and they are a big team. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 27/5. We had 13 “second chance” points to 3 for them. I there had been no offensive rounds, we’d have won 51-49.
9 of our 21 baskets were assisted (.429) and 12 of their 18 (.667). For the year we are assisting on 51.3% of our baskets to 64.3% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 16 of 19 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 47 FGA -14 OREBs + 5 TOs + (.475 x 27) = 50.825 possessions. They were 46 –5 + 5 + (.475 x 11) = 51.225 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 51 possessions in which we scored 64 points, (1.255) and 51 possessions in which they scored 52 points, (1.020). For the year we are 1.162 vs. 0.943. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 19-0. We’ve averaged 123 total possessions per game this year but have been below that in every ACC game, (102 in this one), suggesting that our hopes of more wide-open, fast paced games in this conference may not come to pass.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 19-8, 12-18, 13-15, 20-11. The average for the season is: 17-14, 18-15, 17-15, 19-14. We’ve won 50 quarters, lost 20 and tied 6. We’ve scored at least 15 in 58 of 76 quarters and held the opposition under that 41 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 14 points and 4 assists for 18 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Tyler Ennis has led 9 times and CJ Fair have done it 7 times, Trevor Cooney 4 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Tyler Ennis sat us down in the first half with a jumper 54 seconds in. Rakeem Christmas did it with a lay-up 1:12 into the second half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 11 times, Tyler 9 times, Trevor Cooney 6 times, DaJuan Coleman and Rakeem Christmas 5 times and Grant those two times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and 1:12 vs. Miami in the second game (second half)
