New Bracketology out

[Eric15]

Lunardi has us as a 12 seed in a play-in game vs. UCLA, with the winner playing Kentucky.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

We simply have to win these next three games. With a lot of tough games down the stretch, I think a loss in any of these three games would be a damaging step back for us.

 

[Brooky03]

I'd take that. Kentucky blows

 

[MSOrange]

My manager at work went to UCLA. That could be fun

 

[Cusefan0307]

FWIW Lunardi is incredibly inaccurate with his seeding. Palm has us a 10. I think we can get up in the single digit range eventually if we keep winning.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

 

[RandygoCuse]

Are they changing the naming of the rounds? I saw something calling it the "first four" and the next the first round. Back to the way it should be.

 

[CusefanATL]

I'd take that. Kentucky blows

it also means we are SQUARELY on the bubble. go 3-0 over the next 3 and we prob only move up a few spots meaning we are still on the bubble.

 

[Dave85]

FWIW Lunardi is incredibly inaccurate with his seeding. Palm has us a 10. I think we can get up in the single digit range eventually if we keep winning.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

I agree. I'd hate to be a play-in 12th seed. They will probably have us play the game LA and then fly back to the East with one day in between to play the first game.

 

[Eric15]

FWIW Lunardi is incredibly inaccurate with his seeding. Palm has us a 10. I think we can get up in the single digit range eventually if we keep winning.

Has there every been an analysis of how accurate these guys (Lunardi, Palm, etc.) are over time? Honestly curious.

 

[Knicks411]

I think Lunardi is low on us right now. Someone needs to tell me how LSU has a better resume than we do. LSU's best win according to Ken Pom is Kentucky, at home. We probably have 3 wins better than that. The big knock on our resume is the loss to St. Johns's, and no question, that's an awful loss. (They're 255 in KP). LSU has 3 losses to teams worse than 100 in KP, including a loss to Wake at home, and that doesn't include a loss to Houston, who is 86. LSU has one win over a team in Lunardi's field, the UK home win. We've beaten 4 teams in Lunardi's current field, with 3 of those coming away from the dome.

 

[Eric15]

LSU's best win according to Ken Pom is Kentucky, at home. We probably have 3 wins better than that..

A&M is the only win we have that's better than that.

 

[CorduroyG]

id be surprised if we were in 1 of the play in games as it stands right now. i think we're better than that, they'd take 5-2 in acc with boeheim into consideration.

 

[jncuse]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Google Paymon Score, and you can see how people's last tourney forecast came out... which of course is only part of bracketology.

I would refer to the Bracket Matrix before Lunardi. Lunardi is really no better than the consolidated group. But he was one of the leaders to create passion for it several years ago. Many have now jumped on, including myself at times, and can do just as well if you put some time into it. You need to put some time into recognizing trends and how it works, but once you put the time in it is not rocket science.

I used to be on the matrix for 3 years when I was on another site -- my last prediction was better than averageone year, average once, and terrible the next. The last 2 years I tracked my score, and while I did not publish them, I would have been one of the top 5% brackets 2 years ago... and probably bottom 20% last year.

Really it is up and down, and in my view a good bracketologist is not one who can piece something good at the end. But it is one who provides good explanations, trends, things to watch out for throughout the year. That is what I try to do with my posts here, whether people agree or not.. provide insights, share some tools I use, and what I am gathering from those tools.

One of the insights I was making by December 10th was that the Pac12 was likely to be all over the middle of the seed lines and bubble this year and be much better then normal. Trends like that are easily identifiable by mid December.


-------------------

With respect to the matrix.

Before yesterday's games (if we only look at the recent brackets on the matrix), rather than the rolling totals, we are the 8th last team IN:

That means there are seven teams currently in by consensus who have a bigger shot at the play in game


Florida St
Seton Hall
Texas Tech
Washington
Butler
UConn
George Washington


Of course the difference between Syracuse and those teams is marginal, and it can move quickly with any one result from say a 9/10 seed to a 11/12 seed.

 

[Frozen]

I agree. I'd hate to be a play-in 12th seed. They will probably have us play the game LA and then fly back to the East with one day in between to play the first game.

I could be wrong but aren't all the play-in games held in Dayton? Or is that just the 16 seed vs. 16 seed games?

 

[kirbivore]

I could be wrong but aren't all the play-in games held in Dayton? Or is that just the 16 seed vs. 16 seed games?

They all are

 

[jncuse]

A&M is the only win we have that's better than that.

Quality Wins
Syracuse has wins over the following current tourney teams - Texas AM, UConn, Duke, Notre Dame
LSU has wins over the following current tourney teams: Kentucky, (Vandebilt??)

Bad Losses
Syracuse has one bad loss against teams projected sub 100 RPI - St. John;s
LSU has 5 losses against teams projected sub 100 RPI - Marquette, Charleston, NC St, Houston, Wake Forest

A few of those teams may end up top 100, but my point is the losses are no good

RPI
Syracuse: Current 42, Expected 53 (9-9 conference record)
LSU; Current 82, Expected 90 (11-7 conference record). If they get to 13-5, which is possible, they get up to 60

Consensus
21 Brackets on the Matrix submitted since January 30
Syracuse is in 21 of 21
LSU is in 4 of 21

For Lunardi to have LSU higher, much less even in the tourney on an "As of Now" basis, is an absolute farce. Beyond ridiculous.

 

[kirbivore]

In that bracket if su beats ucla the game vs Kentucky is played in providence. Huge crowd edge for su

 

[jncuse]

I agree. I'd hate to be a play-in 12th seed. They will probably have us play the game LA and then fly back to the East with one day in between to play the first game.

Thankfully all the games are in Dayton every year, so we might have some representation at the game.

 

[Dave85]

Thankfully all the games are in Dayton every year, so we might have some representation at the game.

I've seen the map. Every game is a home game!

 

[texascpa]

I think Lunardi is low on us right now. Someone needs to tell me how LSU has a better resume than we do. LSU's best win according to Ken Pom is Kentucky, at home. We probably have 3 wins better than that. The big knock on our resume is the loss to St. Johns's, and no question, that's an awful loss. (They're 255 in KP). LSU has 3 losses to teams worse than 100 in KP, including a loss to Wake at home, and that doesn't include a loss to Houston, who is 86. LSU has one win over a team in Lunardi's field, the UK home win. We've beaten 4 teams in Lunardi's current field, with 3 of those coming away from the dome.

Didn't you know, LSU has Ben Simmons! That's right, the next coming of LeBron, Michael and Larry all rolled into one. That makes LSU a great team, regardless of who they have beaten...or who they've lost to.

 

[djcon57]

I honestly think seed is irrelevant with this team. Just get in and we'll make a run or not.
We can beat anyone or lose to anyone.

 

[creatorsgam]

My manager at work went to UCLA. That could be fun

Sounds like you should be managing them.

 

[Orangeblue2]

id be surprised if we were in 1 of the play in games as it stands right now. i think we're better than that, they'd take 5-2 in acc with boeheim into consideration.

It's an interesting situation, does the NCAA take into consideration Boeheim's absence? I'd feel better about that if it wasn't that "august body" that sat him down to begin with.

 

[jncuse]

I honestly think seed is irrelevant with this team. Just get in and we'll make a run or not.
We can beat anyone or lose to anyone.

And there is decent chances that you will not even be playing your "likely" seed opponent by round 3 as this thing could get whacky.

 

[jncuse]

How about Syracuse vs UConn in a play in game at Dayton (although they try to avoid rematches in the first round)

 

[Eric15]

Quality Wins
Syracuse has wins over the following current tourney teams - Texas AM, UConn, Duke, Notre Dame
LSU has wins over the following current tourney teams: Kentucky, (Vandebilt??)

Bad Losses
Syracuse has one bad loss against teams projected sub 100 RPI - St. John;s
LSU has 5 losses against teams projected sub 100 RPI - Marquette, Charleston, NC St, Houston, Wake Forest

A few of those teams may end up top 100, but my point is the losses are no good

RPI
Syracuse: Current 42, Expected 53 (9-9 conference record)
LSU; Current 82, Expected 90 (11-7 conference record). If they get to 13-5, which is possible, they get up to 60

Consensus
21 Brackets on the Matrix submitted since January 30
Syracuse is in 21 of 21
LSU is in 4 of 21

For Lunardi to have LSU higher, much less even in the tourney on an "As of Now" basis, is an absolute farce. Beyond ridiculous.

Fair enough, I wasn't saying LSU had a better resume than we do. I was simply responding to that one point.