Next Two Games Will Define This Season

[orangecuse]

On the one hand 8-4 would be the 3rd best record since McNabb. So it is a big accomplishment. On the other hand we had 0.0 P4 OOC games and only played one of the Top 4 ACC teams.

Going 3-5 (7-5 overall) in the ACC is pretty weak. That should be more of a concern going forward and not a celebration.


No matter what, year 3 is really when we need to see real results. We will know by then if the experiment was a success or it is time to move on.



Edit

Also we had an upgrade in talent. Adding one more W vs last year where we had no QB the 2nd half of the season, plus OG and Pena were out all year. That isn't some great accomplishment. We lost 1/2 of Shrader, Alford, Brown and replaced them with McCord, Meeks, Pena, OG, a partial JRS, and maybe Zeed for the last 3, all against a weaker schedule.

Spot on post.

Having a losing record in the ACC, even with this season's quite favorable conference schedule, is pretty much same ol same ol for us since we have been in the ACC. Other than the '18 season (which was a statistical outlier from an actuarial stand point) we have consistently been under .500 in conference. A conference mind you, that has (being kind) been nothing more than mediocre at best sans Clemson.

 

[kirbivore]

At Cal we will need to play at least a B game to have a chance. This will be such a huge game. We will obviously be underdogs.

Yukon "should" be a win but they"ll come in with momentum and a "chip on their shoulder". Cuse plays a C game they could lose.

If they can go 2-0, even a Miami loss, means an 8-4 regular season with good momentum heading into the off season.

Cuse needs to finish at least 8-4 to change the November narrative.

Wishful thinking. I have no faith in this coaching staff to reverse the November slide.

 

[Scooch]

Isn't the daunting schedule a recruiting tool? You're going to get to play in big time games.

Nope.

What power 4 school doesn't play a "big time" schedule these days? Everyone is on national TV constantly.

I mean, maybe if we're trying to get portal guys from the group of 5 or FCS it's a talking point. But I hope we're not trying to bring in too many of those guys.

 

[Dinkyspond]

You gotta crawl before you walk. We were 6-6 regular season last year (6-7 overall) with numerous blowout losses and a blowout loss in a bowl. If we can get to 8 or 9 total wins with only one blowout loss (Pitt) that's improvement. Giving Miami a competitive game would also be part of the improvement.

 

[hoopsupstate]

You gotta crawl before you walk. We were 6-6 regular season last year (6-7 overall) with numerous blowout losses and a blowout loss in a bowl. If we can get to 8 or 9 total wins with only one blowout loss (Pitt) that's improvement. Giving Miami a competitive game would also be part of the improvement.

I’m not sure Miam’s defense can stop us.

 

[Dinkyspond]

Yeah. Ohio exposed a bunch of warts. It's why it is so weird people act surprised when better teams give us trouble. Still, we know we're going bowling with 3 games to play, so we've overcome a lot of the warts. They're not going anywhere before the end of this season. We'll see what Fran and company can do to fix them in his first full offseason.

So true. Tyus, the Ohio RB who some on here anointed as the next Jim Brown, gashed us and since then has only one other 100-yard game. That game was a harbinger of our inability to tackle and stop the run. And we had everybody healthy on the Dline for the Ohio game. We were exposed from game #1.

 

[OttosShoes]

Our schedule appeared to be easy but that changed fairly quickly.

It's downright wild how fast things went from "Oh good, no FSU" to "Aw nuts, no FSU."

 

[orangecuse]

You gotta crawl before you walk. We were 6-6 regular season last year (6-7 overall) with numerous blowout losses and a blowout loss in a bowl. If we can get to 8 or 9 total wins with only one blowout loss (Pitt) that's improvement. Giving Miami a competitive game would also be part of the improvement.

Right. Except, however, we've been stuck in diapers for the better part of two decades plus. We graduated to Underoos stage in ('18), but quickly thereafter reverted to soiling our pants again and back in to diapers. That's what the general population, casuals, national media, etc. see and have seen. If, and only if, we can ever get to running, will the general sentiment, etc. change in the broader scope. Especially, nowadays, with the landscape and P4 level ball being practically viewed as semi-pro.

 

[swish7]

Success or failure basically hangs on a knifes edge now.

4 losses = success
5 losses = failure

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Right. Except, however, we've been stuck in diapers for the better part of two decades plus. We graduated to Underoos stage in ('18), but quickly thereafter reverted to soiling our pants again and back in to diapers. That's what the general population, casuals, national media, etc. see and have seen. If, and only if, we can ever get to running, will the general sentiment, etc. change in the broader scope. Especially, nowadays, with the landscape and P4 level ball being practically viewed as semi-pro.

We just made 3 straight bowls for the first time since the 90s.

 

[orangecuse]

We just made 3 straight bowls for the first time since the 90s.

Yeah, cuz making a bowl game in the 90's was the same feat as it is nowadays where bowls are so plentiful nearly everyone gets a participation trophy today.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Yeah. Cuz making a bowl game in the 90's was the same feat as it is nowadays where nearly everyone gets a participation trophy.

That actually strengthens the argument I'm making by acknowledging the achievement of 3 straight bowls.

It's easier now, and we still have proven incapable as a program of stringing together bowl seasons.

We've been less competitive than people want to acknowledge, and competitiveness is either a virtuous cycle or a vicious cycle.

 

[Scooch]

It's downright wild how fast things went from "Oh good, no FSU" to "Aw nuts, no FSU."

I'm typically skeptical of Strength of Schedule ratings. However, at the moment our SoS is considered easy-to-average by every ranking system I can find.

ESPN FPI: 88
Sagarin: 63
Colley: 60
Massey: 67

The idea that somehow our schedule went from "perceived easy" to "very difficult" just isn't true. At worst it's average. But in reality it's still easier than any schedule this program has played in years and years.

 

[swish7]

The reality is our NIL situation was quite small this past year -- if I told you the number, you'd be amazed at the value we got for it. The school is positioned to take it all over next year and the budget will be larger. I look forward to FB having more resources and ability to close the gap a bit more. FB knows he doesnt need the same amount as a top tier program -- but if you get him 75% of that budget? Oh boy. That was the pitch to donors and last year's portal wasn't done based on money, it was connections. And if you're a donor to SU football, you understand it's not a one year play. We've been awful forever, going all in on recruiting by nature is a multi-year plan.

He level set that he was behind in recruiting 2025's when he got here and that 2026 was the key year. There's a reason we're heavily recruiting the HS ranks in 2025 too. These are depth guys that will take a few years to churn out. Same with some of the guys we got last year.

Key will be using NIL to retain some of the under the radar guys, like Watson, that we got last year and have made a huge difference.

Sounds like you know what the heck you're talking about.

 

[RF2044]

I always believed that the three game stretch [VT, BC, and Cal] would ultimately determine what type of season we were eventually going to have.

The two main reasons I felt this way were [1] that we have had hot starts the prior two seasons offset by midseason swoons that were mostly attributable to injury attrition, and [2] that we haven't fared well in November, again mostly due to injuries impacting key personnel compromising depth.

My hope was that we'd win 2 out of 3 -- and we got off to a good start with a quality win against Virginia Tech. But losing to BC was a step backwards, and now we have a difficult road game, where we also have to deal with the opposite coast challenge. Lose again, and I think it is safe to say that a once-promising season has taken a turn toward the disappointing.

Now, can the season still be salvaged? Sure. Win this upcoming game at Cal [no easy feat], and the ship will be righted, and the fans will quickly put the BC loss behind them. But lose again? Man, hard not to feel like we'd be in tailspin... with the gales of November threatening to capsize us again.

 

[Crusty]

At Cal we will need to play at least a B game to have a chance. This will be such a huge game. We will obviously be underdogs.

Yukon "should" be a win but they"ll come in with momentum and a "chip on their shoulder". Cuse plays a C game they could lose.

If they can go 2-0, even a Miami loss, means an 8-4 regular season with good momentum heading into the off season.

Cuse needs to finish at least 8-4 to change the November narrative.

Exactly correct.

 

[NineOneSeven]

For us bowls matter but in general bowls just don't matter. The CFP expansion does at least make it possible for cinderella seasons. The top P4 schools will always take most of the spots, but look at indiana, Boise St., BYU, heck maybe even SMU.

That said, need 8-4. Then we can see if McCord sits out the bowl game (*backs into bushes*).

 

[Scooch]

For us bowls matter but in general bowls just don't matter. The CFP expansion does at least make it possible for cinderella seasons. The top P4 schools will always take most of the spots, but look at indiana, Boise St., BYU, heck maybe even SMU.

That said, need 8-4. Then we can see if McCord sits out the bowl game (*backs into bushes*).

The bowl game itself doesn't matter. Everyone of consequence will sit out. But agree that making a bowl matters. And making one that doesn't suck matters as well.

Win 8, and don't go to a bowl in the Bronx or Fenway, and that's good.

 

[FrancoPizza]

The NCAA/House settlement was preliminarily approved in October. It's moving forward.

Of course other schools can play the same game but for a private school with not as large of a donor pool as others, we're better served with our school eating the cost because it realizes academics are important long term for the university.

That assumes the decision makers within the university truly understand the bigger picture and can play the long game.

 

[richmondcuse03]

That assumes the decision makers within the university truly understand the bigger picture and can play the long game.

John Wildhack is pretty open about this as is the Chancellor. Can’t speak for others but they’re both aligned and supportive because they recognize athletics are key to the long term success of the university ( ie big time sports helps recruit regular students, builds long term donors, etc). I know people are skeptical since that wasn’t always the case on the Hill but times have changed.

 

[cusefan88]

John Wildhack is pretty open about this as is the Chancellor. Can’t speak for others but they’re both aligned and supportive because they recognize athletics are key to the long term success of the university ( ie big time sports helps recruit regular students, builds long term donors, etc). I know people are skeptical since that wasn’t always the case on the Hill but times have changed.

I think they've steered the University fairly well over the last few years. Considering the mess that was Gross/Cantor, these two have developed a good working partnership.

 

[Moontan]

At Cal we will need to play at least a B game to have a chance. This will be such a huge game. We will obviously be underdogs.

Yukon "should" be a win but they"ll come in with momentum and a "chip on their shoulder". Cuse plays a C game they could lose.

If they can go 2-0, even a Miami loss, means an 8-4 regular season with good momentum heading into the off season.

Cuse needs to finish at least 8-4 to change the November narrative.

And may the portal be with us for 2025!!!!!
It's a very difficult schedule next year. Need another 1-2 yr QB and several linemen.

 

[CuseBlood44]

Likely looking at 6-6 or 7-5 this year, no different than what dino got fired for and this is with a QB that had previously lost only 1 collegiate game and other talented portal adds such as Meeks Ross Simmons and diggs. Yikes. Next season brutal schedule and an unknown at QB, hope Fran doesn’t lose his recruiting mojo

 

[Scooch]

John Wildhack is pretty open about this as is the Chancellor. Can’t speak for others but they’re both aligned and supportive because they recognize athletics are key to the long term success of the university ( ie big time sports helps recruit regular students, builds long term donors, etc). I know people are skeptical since that wasn’t always the case on the Hill but times have changed.

This is a great point, thanks for sharing it.

When you get down to it, SU desperately needs high-level D1 athletics to differentiate itself from other northeastern schools. The cost of attendance is so absurd at this point, and the academic standing of the school so relatively pedestrian, that without high level sports (and the brand identity, school & community spirit, and alumni connections that comes with it) SU really doesn't have a calling card.

I believe our AD and Chancellor completely get that.

 

[David321]

Likely looking at 6-6 or 7-5 this year, no different than what dino got fired for and this is with a QB that had previously lost only 1 collegiate game and other talented portal adds such as Meeks Ross Simmons and diggs. Yikes. Next season brutal schedule and an unknown at QB, hope Fran doesn’t lose his recruiting mojo

I'm hoping Fran focuses on two areas this upcoming portal season; a QB1 who can run (like best available) to hide our offensive line problems and some more beefy dline guys. We need depth there.