Nice gag job by uconn | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

Nice gag job by uconn

You’re absolutely right about Creighton. I think this year it’s really up in the air about which team and conference are great and which aren’t. There just aren’t enough data points to really know. I mean we lost to Creighton 3 times but we beat Georgetown easily twice. The second time we were up by 30 or so at half. At the same time we beat Xavier on the road without Bouknight and they beat Oklahoma by 22. We also beat Marquette twice easily and they beat Wisconsin and North Carolina. Does that mean we’re better than any of those teams? We just don’t know. You would normally have 5+ more games in the OOC to weight the strengths of conferences. I do believe that the Big East is down this year based on the amount of skill that graduated last year but not as much as records may show. There are probably 4-6 teams this year that are almost equal and essentially bubble teams and beating each other up. In a normal year the Big East would have their top tier of Nova and whoever was challenging them, the next tier of teams that are solid tourney teams and then 2 or 3 bubble teams. This year you only have 2 top teams, one second tier team in UConn and then a bunch of teams knocking each other out of contention.

The only thing that I can definitively point to is that UConn, when healthy, doesn’t lose to teams that it is equal or better to based on the metrics and that’s due to their defense. It’s been really good. It’s hard to pinpoint our ceiling but their floor is deserving of a spot in the NCAAs. I think it is similarly difficult to judge Syracuse. You have one great win against VT (similar our USC win), a few more good wins than we do, but worse losses. I think the thing that is true about both teams is that their seeding is crucial. Both could be knocked out first or second round or make a small run of 2 or 3 games depending on the opponents. Either way it should be fun.
that’s cute and everything. We beat VaTech who beat a fully healthy Nova; something you couldn’t do. Clemson beat Purdue, Maryland and Alabama.

if your only argument is “we beat team A who beat team B”, that’s pretty weak. The fact is UConn, up until yesterday, had beat 1 tournament team all year, and that was in December.

Nova and Creighton combined for 10 conference losses - none against UConn.

if it wasn’t for a miracle run by GTown and a 4-seed winning the America East, UConn would have 1 win against the field, which came all the way back in December
 
You’re absolutely right about Creighton. I think this year it’s really up in the air about which team and conference are great and which aren’t. There just aren’t enough data points to really know. I mean we lost to Creighton 3 times but we beat Georgetown easily twice. The second time we were up by 30 or so at half. At the same time we beat Xavier on the road without Bouknight and they beat Oklahoma by 22. We also beat Marquette twice easily and they beat Wisconsin and North Carolina. Does that mean we’re better than any of those teams? We just don’t know. You would normally have 5+ more games in the OOC to weight the strengths of conferences. I do believe that the Big East is down this year based on the amount of skill that graduated last year but not as much as records may show. There are probably 4-6 teams this year that are almost equal and essentially bubble teams and beating each other up. In a normal year the Big East would have their top tier of Nova and whoever was challenging them, the next tier of teams that are solid tourney teams and then 2 or 3 bubble teams. This year you only have 2 top teams, one second tier team in UConn and then a bunch of teams knocking each other out of contention.

The only thing that I can definitively point to is that UConn, when healthy, doesn’t lose to teams that it is equal or better to based on the metrics and that’s due to their defense. It’s been really good. It’s hard to pinpoint our ceiling but their floor is deserving of a spot in the NCAAs. I think it is similarly difficult to judge Syracuse. You have one great win against VT (similar our USC win), a few more good wins than we do, but worse losses. I think the thing that is true about both teams is that their seeding is crucial. Both could be knocked out first or second round or make a small run of 2 or 3 games depending on the opponents. Either way it should be fun.

Your second paragraph is sensible. A whole lot of conjecture in para 1 though (team A beat B, so C is better than B, etc). Uconn has talent, I fully agree with that. But they have beaten almost nobody. 4 Q1 wins are nice and all, but peel the onion a bit. What are those wins. Only USC is remotely impressive. The Big East has a bunch of teams at 500 or worse. It is just really, really down talent-wise right now. Watching several games, most teams look mid-majorish. Nova and uconn, and I would say Georgetown based on athleticism, look like high majors. The others, Creighton absolutely included, look like over-achieving MAC squads. Which Creighton pretty much was until joining the BE a few years ago.
 
that’s cute and everything. We beat VaTech who beat a fully healthy Nova; something you couldn’t do. Clemson beat Purdue, Maryland and Alabama.

if your only argument is “we beat team A who beat team B”, that’s pretty weak. The fact is UConn, up until yesterday, had beat 1 tournament team all year, and that was in December.

Nova and Creighton combined for 10 conference losses - none against UConn.

if it wasn’t for a miracle run by GTown and a 4-seed winning the America East, UConn would have 1 win against the field, which came all the way back in December
I think my point is it’s very difficult to gauge where teams are this year. Also, VT beat Nova 3rd game of the year as did UConn to USC. So does that invalidate the VT win?

I do agree that UConn doesn’t have a ton of wins over teams in the tournament but there weren’t a ton of opportunities. The 2 COVID stoppages killed several OOC opportunities. Aside from Creighton who we were swept by, we only had one opportunity to play Villanova. They decided not to reschedule the rematch at UConn. Also, up until a few weeks ago it looked like we had wins over 2 more tourney teams in Seton Hall and Xavier. So yeah the sample size isn’t great but do I think we’re a tournament team. Absolutely. Are we great? Probably not.
 
Your second paragraph is sensible. A whole lot of conjecture in para 1 though (team A beat B, so C is better than B, etc). Uconn has talent, I fully agree with that. But they have beaten almost nobody. 4 Q1 wins are nice and all, but peel the onion a bit. What are those wins. Only USC is remotely impressive. The Big East has a bunch of teams at 500 or worse. It is just really, really down talent-wise right now. Watching several games, most teams look mid-majorish. Nova and uconn, and I would say Georgetown based on athleticism, look like high majors. The others, Creighton absolutely included, look like over-achieving MAC squads. Which Creighton pretty much was until joining the BE a few years ago.
I pretty agree with this. I would say there are other teams that have high major parts of the their teams. Marquette and Seton Hall have great front courts but their backcourts are scrubs. The only thing I would disagree with is that Creighton is the most streaky team in the country and are definitely a high major when playing well. They blew out a full strength Nova (which only a handful of teams can do) and lose to Butler. I mean What? I think they’ll either make the Elite Eight or get knocked out the first round.
 
I think my point is it’s very difficult to gauge where teams are this year. Also, VT beat Nova 3rd game of the year as did UConn to USC. So does that invalidate the VT win?

I do agree that UConn doesn’t have a ton of wins over teams in the tournament but there weren’t a ton of opportunities. The 2 COVID stoppages killed several OOC opportunities. Aside from Creighton who we were swept by, we only had one opportunity to play Villanova. They decided not to reschedule the rematch at UConn. Also, up until a few weeks ago it looked like we had wins over 2 more tourney teams in Seton Hall and Xavier. So yeah the sample size isn’t great but do I think we’re a tournament team. Absolutely. Are we great? Probably not.
It doesn’t invalidate UConn’s win at all - I was just saying it’s been a long time since they beat a tournament team.

UConn is definitely a tournament team, and has a better resume than us, but it’s probably not by a whole lot
 
It doesn’t invalidate UConn’s win at all - I was just saying it’s been a long time since they beat a tournament team.

UConn is definitely a tournament team, and has a better resume than us, but it’s probably not by a whole lot
I agree entirely and kind of wish we had your projected seed because the 8/9 game is not ideal.
 
It doesn’t invalidate UConn’s win at all - I was just saying it’s been a long time since they beat a tournament team.

UConn is definitely a tournament team, and has a better resume than us, but it’s probably not by a whole lot

I take issue with the 'better resume' point. Yes better by computer metrics. But who has uconn beaten? USC, and... Seton Hall? Xavier? Georgetown, yes that one looks better now.

VTech, UNC, Clemson is better. It just is. That said, computer metrics do not agree, hence uconn is higher up the S-curve. But beating 1 at large team over the course of the season is hardly something to be proud of. Overall, the profiles are pretty pedestrian and seeding would be similar based on sensible analytics. Doesn't always work that way though.
 
I take issue with the 'better resume' point. Yes better by computer metrics. But who has uconn beaten? USC, and... Seton Hall? Xavier? Georgetown, yes that one looks better now.

VTech, UNC, Clemson is better. It just is. That said, computer metrics do not agree, hence uconn is higher up the S-curve. But beating 1 at large team over the course of the season is hardly something to be proud of. Overall, the profiles are pretty pedestrian and seeding would be similar based on sensible analytics. Doesn't always work that way though.
UConn has no bad losses (Pitt is our bad loss). And like I said earlier, the weakness of the BE gave them chances to beat fairly average teams on the road, which helped their NET
 
I agree entirely and kind of wish we had your projected seed because the 8/9 game is not ideal.
Not sure where either team will be seeded, but I'd much rather be a 12 seed than an 8/9.
 
UConn has no bad losses (Pitt is our bad loss). And like I said earlier, the weakness of the BE gave them chances to beat fairly average teams on the road, which helped their NET

Agree. It seems to be a fundamental flaw with the NET calc. The middle of the Big East is pretty poor in terms of basketball product, but winning on the road still seems to net a significant advantage per the metrics..
 
Agree. It seems to be a fundamental flaw with the NET calc. The middle of the Big East is pretty poor in terms of basketball product, but winning on the road still seems to net a significant advantage per the metrics..
I agree with this. The NET is useless this year. Besides you guys there doesn’t seem to be much of a home court advantage. I also think the main difference between the ACC and Big East is the middle. The top few teams in both are pretty much equal. The Big East bottom is better (doesn’t mean much). But there are better teams in the middle of the ACC.
 
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