Notre DAME: OLD BE, Catholic 7, and ACC--Stealth unveiled

[arbitragegls]

I finally realize that I really cannot be so stealth on what I am trying to communicate. As mentioned in a thread a while ago, I had been asked to tone down the actual statements (source) and allude to issues in roundabout way. Me bad...so here goes in clearer terms:
1. Old BE is new whatever and owned by ESPN
2. Catholic 7 is owned by FOX
3. ACC is owned by ESPN
4. Notre Dame football is contracted to NBC (the real loser in this new push for the Catholic 7 and old BE )

• Do you think that ESPN wants the Notre Dame Football brand on FOX or NBC...?
• Do you think that ESPN wants Notre Dame (minus football brand into the ACC as quickly as possible...?
• Do you believe that ESPN is not upset with FOX for pushing Catholic 7 out of the BE as well as motivating the B1G to take Rutgers and Maryland out of ESPN conferences...?

What this Notre Dame decision is coming down to is what is ESPN decision to spend on the ACC...negotiations are heating up on the ACC/ESPN side...the first line of demarcation is about to be determined...the worst outcome is Notre Dame to Catholic 7 as regardless of what it says about Catholic 7 it SAYS SO MUCH MORE ABOUT WHETHER ESPN OR FOX OR NBC END UP WITH NOTRE DAME'S NEW FOOTBALLTV CONTRACT IN TWO YEARS. (and yes Notre Dame did agree to exit fee for leaving ACC and will be in the ACC in '14-'15--but that is not FOOTBALL THAT IS INDEPENDENT).
This discussion is really about which network will have the upper hand in tying up Notre Dame Football in its next TV contract.

• If Notre Dame is in ACC '13-'14 ESPN believes it has a shot at Notre Dame's new TV football contract and possibility of tying into ACC contract in some manner including NETWORK
• IF Notre Dame non football goes to FOX and Catholic 7 even for 1 year of other sports than does FOX now have ear of Notre Dame and possibility of getting its Football TV contract

This is a end game played by the Networks as well as Notre Dame...for its Football TV contract...this is big dollars and a bigger decision for ESPN and ACC.

Previous thread had terrific discussion and comments...I am sorry that I did not communicate information better...this should be a good discussion and more meaningful than previous one...thanks for understanding!

 

[orange79]

Well, this could get interesting...

 

[SU2NASA]

1. Old BE is new whatever and owned by ESPN8, The Ocho.

Fixed.

 

[PeteCalvin]

F Notre Dame.

 

[kcsu]

ND will stay in the ACC. The 7 does not make any sense ND as it is not a home for their Olympic teams. I truly think that ND put a ton of time and thought into the ACC and that the formation of the 7 will not have any influence on their long term plans. My sense is that ESPN will step up in a big way and Grab the Irish for football that they will end up playing 5 games against ACC teams and the rest independent. All other sports will remain in the ACC. This is the best solution for the Irish and if ESPN want the Irish when their contract is up they will get them. Digital distribution is only going to grow and within two years the foot print of non traditional distribution will be through the roof. ESPN is so far ahead in alternative distribution channels that i truly believe it will be hard for the others to catch up. Again who knows this is all just a guess but if you break it down i believe this scenario makes the most sense for ND

 

[HtownOrange]

Just a thought:

ND could have stayed with the C7 after Syracuse, Pitt and WVU announced. They consciously chose the ACC. I'm not convinced they will want to play with the C7 going forward. The C7 deal is a bluff, which ND may have to follow through for the one year but I cannot see where they will greatly benefit from being with the C7 in the long haul.

I think Arb hit the nail on the head with the real issue being Fox' 1 year window to work ND over regarding the football games. ND is not going all-in in football any time soon and this could really impact ESPN. I think ESPN can handle NBC still showing ND football but Fox is the real player, direct competition for control/influence of the CFB world.

 

[Alsacs]

I agree with what your saying that, but remember one thing in this war ESPN realized they were getting a competitor in the market it was their decision to allow FOX to be that competitor over NBCSN. The reason why is because NBC is now owned by Comcast and if ESPN allowed Comcast into the Sports World they could play hard ball with how ESPN rates on all of Comcast. ESPN worked with FOX which was unprecedented to keep the Pac-12 off of NBCSN. ESPN may realize FOX is a challenger, but its a challenger they allowed to grow. From what I have heard ESPN/FOX will joint bid on the B1G contract after the 2016 like they have on the Big XII and Pac-12 and this will allow the B1G to get more money by allowing ESPN/FOX to joint bid than either bidding independently. I doubt FOX is a threat for Notre Dame IMO its either ESPN or NBC. ESPN has more platforms than FOX and I think ESPN is a huge underdog to challenge NBC for Notre Dame Football because NBC is going to overpay to keep its crown jewel. I think ESPN has the ACC in its corner to back channel to ND what they will pay. I think if I was handicapping the favorite for ND's football rights it would be
NBC 1:1
ESPN 4:1
FOX 10:1
CBS/Turner 20:1
NFL Network 100:1

Here are really good articles about ESPN/FOX vs. NBCSN/Comcast
http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2013...ering-nbc-sports-network-s-growth-part-i.html
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2011/05/09/Media/Pac-10.aspx

 

[mscanlo]

i dont think ND to C7 is a bluff, but i only think it is in the interim 1 year if they can't jump to the acc right away. ND rather be associated with the C7 for a year than the crap leftovers of the BE. however, ND rather be in the ACC than the C7. id be shocked if the decide to stay in the C7 rather than the ACC. money aside, they care a lot more about their olympic sports (now) then people think

 

[xc84]

i dont think ND to C7 is a bluff, but i only think it is in the interim 1 year if they can't jump to the acc right away. ND rather be associated with the C7 for a year than the crap leftovers of the BE. however, ND rather be in the ACC than the C7. id be shocked if the decide to stay in the C7 rather than the ACC. money aside, they care a lot more about their olympic sports (now) then people think

If ND leaves the BE "early", they will pay a premium on their exit fee. If they do that, they won't go to the new league with many other Catholic schools. They will go to the ACC which is what they want to do anyways.

 

[OrangeChris]

Notre Dame's home game football contract isn't ending up on any platform other than NBC OTA. I doubt ESPN or FOX views luring ND away as even a remote possibility. ESPN is primarily concerned with securing the 6th ACC/ND game since that ensures a 3rd away game every year on their networks (instead of the 2.5 they'll average with the current arrangement). ND will absolutely take less money to guarantee 100% of their home games on an OTA channel, meaning ESPN would have to guarantee every single game on ABC (with no "regional" tricks in which they show different games in different markets). That strikes me as difficult to pull off given ABC's commitments to other conferences, whereas NBC can basically give ND whatever they want in terms of exposure.

 

[Btstimpy]

I finally realize that I really cannot be so stealth on what I am trying to communicate. As mentioned in a thread a while ago, I had been asked to tone down the actual statements (source) and allude to issues in roundabout way. Me bad...so here goes in clearer terms:
1. Old BE is new whatever and owned by ESPN
2. Catholic 7 is owned by FOX
3. ACC is owned by ESPN
4. Notre Dame football is contracted to NBC (the real loser in this new push for the Catholic 7 and old BE )

• Do you think that ESPN wants the Notre Dame Football brand on FOX or NBC...?
• Do you think that ESPN wants Notre Dame (minus football brand into the ACC as quickly as possible...?
• Do you believe that ESPN is not upset with FOX for pushing Catholic 7 out of the BE as well as motivating the B1G to take Rutgers and Maryland out of ESPN conferences...?

What this Notre Dame decision is coming down to is what is ESPN decision to spend on the ACC...negotiations are heating up on the ACC/ESPN side...the first line of demarcation is about to be determined...the worst outcome is Notre Dame to Catholic 7 as regardless of what it says about Catholic 7 it SAYS SO MUCH MORE ABOUT WHETHER ESPN OR FOX OR NBC END UP WITH NOTRE DAME'S NEW FOOTBALLTV CONTRACT IN TWO YEARS. (and yes Notre Dame did agree to exit fee for leaving ACC and will be in the ACC in '14-'15--but that is not FOOTBALL THAT IS INDEPENDENT).

This discussion is really about which network will have the upper hand in tying up Notre Dame Football in its next TV contract.

• If Notre Dame is in ACC '13-'14 ESPN believes it has a shot at Notre Dame's new TV football contract and possibility of tying into ACC contract in some manner including NETWORK
• IF Notre Dame non football goes to FOX and Catholic 7 even for 1 year of other sports than does FOX now have ear of Notre Dame and possibility of getting its Football TV contract

This is a end game played by the Networks as well as Notre Dame...for its Football TV contract...this is big dollars and a bigger decision for ESPN and ACC.


Previous thread had terrific discussion and comments...I am sorry that I did not communicate information better...this should be a good discussion and more meaningful than previous one...thanks for understanding!

How much does Notre Dame have to pay the Big East Conference to come to the ACC in 2013? WVU had to pay $20 million to do this, but they were a football member.

 

[riskylogic]

How much does Notre Dame have to pay the Big East Conference to come to the ACC in 2013? WVU had to pay $20 million to do this, but they were a football member.

Since the yearly value of a top-tier MBB contract is 2-3 mil per year, I would guess that is the range they are negotiating in.