Dual was 2nd on the team for McNesse St in minutes/game (27mins)
He doesn't need to be a "breakout player" to be successful. That would require him to be a ball dominant PG - something he is not. Dual is here because of his positional size/length, assist to turnover ratio, and his rep as an elite defender. Those are the things he needs to continue to do well vs ACC level talent. The risk is more about how well those skills translate and not whether he can make a the leap to being a breakout star.
That's not quite what I said.
I said it's not a formula for success usually to take a guy from a lower level and have them play more minutes at a higher level. That's a general statement that isn't speaking to Dual specifically.
Dual is an interesting case though, because if I'm right, that means we're in rough waters if Dual say, plays 32 minutes a game, 5 more than he averaged for McNeese St.
And Dual is also relevant because he is the surest thing at point guard on the roster, currently. We will need his minutes to come at the 1. Which means even though he has positional versatility, would we expect any of those minutes to be off the ball given the other guys on the roster? I don't think they would be. I suspect he's the lead ball handler every minute he plays. Sure, one of the wings might bring the ball up and initiate the offense for a possession here or there, but Dual is still the point guard.
I feel like I'm giving the impression that I don't like Dual, and that's not the case. I think he's a good pickup and will have a solid final season of college basketball.
I really, really do not expect him to thrive in the ACC if he's asked to play much more than he did at McNeese St., and I really, really do not like the lineup when he isn't on the floor of the PG2 minutes get soaked up by Moesch/whichever wing gets assigned that.
That can resolve itself several ways, but as of right now they all seem unlikely.
Maybe Moesch is ready to give competent minutes right away. I'm skeptical, but maybe. This is maybe the one option where Dual is also on the floor at the same time, and Moesch plays the 1 because there's nowhere else for him to go. But that's a backcourt combo that can't be expected to provide much shooting.
Maybe one of the wings emerges. Tobiason maybe has it in him, but that means you've moved the most proven catch and shoot player on the roster to lead ball handler. So it can work but comes at a cost that maybe isn't great.
People have talked about Doty as a possibility, but now we're expecting him to not just make the jump to the ACC while maintaining some level of efficiency to his offensive game, but also add in some competent point guard minutes? I understand people are excited for him and he's Gerry's guy and everything but that's a lot.
Kiyan maybe has some ability here but I'm one of his biggest fans on the board and I don't think it's a great idea to put much expectation on him there.
I don't think we necessarily need a point guard better than Dual, but if we want a winning, tournament qualifying season we probably do need a better PG2 option than the current grab bag.
Plus, the talk about the roster construction has been about depth so there can be roster resilience.
We're brittle at PG1. Why would we be inconsistent with the roster philosophy at such a critical position?