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Message: [QUOTE="imdevo, post: 891998, member: 1759"] Slow morning at work, so I decided to project out the rest of the ACC season. The probabilities for each game are determined by the Pomeroy ratings (which are based on opponent adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency) as of this morning. A few notes: ExpW is the team's expected amount of wins through the end of the ACC regular season, Luck is how many wins a team has over-performed or under-performed to date (based on the current iteration of statistics, SOS is the team's projected strength of schedule (given in generic win percentage, which is the chance that a team will beat an average team on a neutral court), and SOSTD is that team's strength of schedule to date. I have a few other tabs such as The Standings tab. This has the projected standings as well as charts, detailing the probability that each team will win a given amount of games through the end of the season and the probability that each team will win at least a given amount of games through the end of the season. I came up with these numbers by running a brute force simulation, which details the chances that every possible outcome of games for that team will occur. Also have a Teams tab that provides a game-by-game breakdown for each team, most notably, the win probability in each game. I won't share everything because I do not want to bore everyone. Let me know your thoughts, and my apologies if this is all boring stuff. Love to hear your opinion. [B]Syracuse Location Win Loss Result[/B] Miami Home 0.92380 0.07620 W Virginia Tech Away 0.89872 0.10128 W North Carolina Home 0.87129 0.12871 W Boston College Away 0.89346 0.10654 W Pittsburgh Home 0.69872 0.30128 Miami Away 0.76978 0.23022 Wake Forest Away 0.79772 0.20228 Duke Home 0.79791 0.20209 Notre Dame Home 0.92761 0.07239 Clemson Home 0.85811 0.14189 Pittsburgh Away 0.39011 0.60989 North Carolina St Home 0.94113 0.05887 Boston College Home 0.96816 0.03184 Duke Away 0.52128 0.47872 Maryland Away 0.74757 0.25243 Virginia Away 0.47213 0.52787 Georgia Tech Home 0.95583 0.04417 Florida St Away 0.46589 0.53411 Games Played 4 Wins 4 Avg Prob To Date 0.89682 ExpW 14.31 Avg Prob Remaining 0.73657 Avg Prob 0.77218 SOS To Date 0.67065 SOS 0.83927 SOS Remaining 0.86357 Luck 0.41 [/QUOTE]

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