Offensive ppg here on out

[Millhouse]

For every team in the FBS or just us?

Because otherwise the ranking is useless.

it's less useless than leaving it in. think. your way is worse. we got 4 extra possessions from the 25 that at least 100 teams didn't get

 

[Millhouse]

Also - not all drives start on the 20. Are we punishing offenses that get short fields due to TO too?

It's fine to say yards usually are related to ppg. But you can't punish teams for scoring when they get the opportunity to.

If you want to give more value to drives that cover a lot of yards in regulation - go for it. But apply that to all teams, not just ours.

you guys are the one that loves the PPG stats. not me. I'm just saying if you're going to compare teams offensive scoring, you should look at the 60 minutes of regulation so it's apples to apples. most teams play 60, this isn't hard

field position is a reason why you should look at yards per play. but we are better in points per game and the pollyannas here want to think that lester has discovered the magic formula for scoring a lot without moving the ball well

and if you're going to predict points, i wouldn't expect 4 overtime possessions and 2 non-offense TDs over 5 games. you'd have to be stupid to do that

 

[GoSU96]

small correction - they're at 22.2 points of offense in regulation through 5 fbs games, knocks down the projection to 19.2

if we didn't have defensive TD or OT TD, we'd be 100th in TD against FBS and we'd be 96th in scoring.

Now who's the one going all Upperdeck?

 

[GoSU96]

i give up. teams that don't go to overtime and don't have whigham don't have 3 straight drive starts from the 25 in a game. basketball has points per minute stats that corrects for this stuff.

i backed out syracuse's 5 scores, dropped cfbstats in a spreadsheet, divided TDs by number of games for each team. did the same for points.

you can find teams that can move the ball and not score, but you're not going to find teams that score but can't move the ball. everyone here is getting fooled by 4 possessions from the 25 and 2 defensive scores.

And that's why the next 6 games are scary, and tried to get folks to pump the brakes weeks ago.

The offense scored: 31 pts vs URI, 23 against Wake, 24 in regulation against CMU, 24 against LSU, 24 against USF, and 17 in regulation against UVA.

That's in line with the production the offense is generating.

It's certainty better than Gregian when breaching 20 was a rarity, it's better than last year without a doubt, but what it isn't is 32 pts per game of offense. It's a solid start given all the newness. It's not bad news at all.

Problem is, it's going to get harder. I think there is potential on this team to improve and hold those numbers against better defenses, sure, but they are going to have to play much better to do so. Lester is going to earn his check these next six weeks.

 

[Millhouse]

Now who's the one going all Upperdeck?

It's upper decker to compare apples?

 

[cuseguy]

Still not enough game breakers on offense.

 

[Dcuse]

you guys are the one that loves the PPG stats. not me. I'm just saying if you're going to compare teams offensive scoring, you should look at the 60 minutes of regulation so it's apples to apples. most teams play 60, this isn't hard

field position is a reason why you should look at yards per play. but we are better in points per game and the pollyannas here want to think that lester has discovered the magic formula for scoring a lot without moving the ball well

and if you're going to predict points, i wouldn't expect 4 overtime possessions and 2 non-offense TDs over 5 games. you'd have to be stupid to do that

Here's what you don't understand- our defense does not get off the field like they did last year. We spend less time on the field on offense because of it. Lester's offense is the best offense we have had since McNabb was here. I'm sorry but you have to be an idiot not to see that

 

[Millhouse]

Here's what you don't understand- our defense does not get off the field like they did last year. We spend less time on the field on offense because of it. Lester's offense is the best offense we have had since McNabb was here. I'm sorry but you have to be an idiot not to see that

Which is why I think yards per play is a better stat. I agree that the defense is worse, I've said it a million times.

 

[SWC75]

And that's why the next 6 games are scary, and tried to get folks to pump the brakes weeks ago.

The offense scored: 31 pts vs URI, 23 against Wake, 24 in regulation against CMU, 24 against LSU, 24 against USF, and 17 in regulation against UVA.

That's in line with the production the offense is generating.

It's certainty better than Gregian when breaching 20 was a rarity, it's better than last year without a doubt, but what it isn't is 32 pts per game of offense. It's a solid start given all the newness. It's not bad news at all.

Problem is, it's going to get harder. I think there is potential on this team to improve and hold those numbers against better defenses, sure, but they are going to have to play much better to do so. Lester is going to earn his check these next six weeks.

I'm glad I felt good about this team for two weeks after the LSU game.

I know realize this is going to take longer than I had hoped, but I was glad for the hope.

 

[TheCusian]

it's less useless than leaving it in. think. your way is worse. we got 4 extra possessions from the 25 that at least 100 teams didn't get

I think we've largely driven this into the ground - but some final thoughts:

1. While removing OT scores from the ppg stats make sense when ranking teams - the thing that was nagging me was that it's still worth something as far as evaluating the offense. An OT possession is a red zone trip. Scoring TD's with the game on the line 3 times does tell us something about our offense. (I wonder where our OT production would rank)

2. There are roughly 30 OT games a year in CFB. That means about half the teams (60) benefit from OT points (or at least have a chance to). That could reshuffle some teams a bit in the ranking if we removed OT scores from everyone. If we dropped a bunch of spots, you have to imagine other teams would too. Don't know or care to find out if it makes a real difference this season. But there is some noise in the data.

 

[Millhouse]

I think we've largely driven this into the ground - but some final thoughts:

1. While removing OT scores from the ppg stats make sense when ranking teams - the thing that was nagging me was that it's still worth something as far as evaluating the offense. An OT possession is a red zone trip. Scoring TD's with the game on the line 3 times does tell us something about our offense. (I wonder where our OT production would rank)

2. There are roughly 30 OT games a year in CFB. That means about half the teams (60) benefit from OT points (or at least have a chance to). That could reshuffle some teams a bit in the ranking if we removed OT scores from everyone. If we dropped a bunch of spots, you have to imagine other teams would too. Don't know or care to find out if it makes a real difference this season. But there is some noise in the data.

count it in yards per play and red zone stats. that's what is great about rates. it makes it apples to apples, differences in field position, defensive scores, pace, and overtime possessions don't mess it up. my point is that points per game is a lousy stat.

our yards per play is 73rd vs fbs. that sounds about right. our schedule is getting tougher, maybe we get better (although dungey has already been so good)

i never said it was perfect. 4 overtime drives in 5 games is highly unusual. you're much more likely to have zero OT drives than 4 in 5 games. they had no business even playing an overtime game yet this year

 

[upperdeck]

the offense is better, the oline is far worse, you have to be able to run block and thats the thing we do the worst with this group. still if the D makes one stop out of the 6-7 chances down the stretch of the last 2 games we are 4-2 with a shot to tie the game at USF. the converse of all the D issues, is that they have done everything you would want a D to do except get off the field in spots you think they should be able too.. mid 4th quarter other than USF they were sitting in pretty good spots.

 

[TheCusian]

the offense is better, the oline is far worse, you have to be able to run block and thats the thing we do the worst with this group. still if the D makes one stop out of the 6-7 chances down the stretch of the last 2 games we are 4-2 with a shot to tie the game at USF. the converse of all the D issues, is that they have done everything you would want a D to do except get off the field in spots you think they should be able too.. mid 4th quarter other than USF they were sitting in pretty good spots.

This season reminds me of 2012 a bit (not in all ways, not a direct comparison, full disclaimer etc etc) in that it feels like we are better than our results offensively.

The reason I've been fighting against the stat people so much is this year feels and looks so different this the past two Shafer seasons on O.

 

[Millhouse]

the offense is better, the oline is far worse, you have to be able to run block and thats the thing we do the worst with this group. still if the D makes one stop out of the 6-7 chances down the stretch of the last 2 games we are 4-2 with a shot to tie the game at USF. the converse of all the D issues, is that they have done everything you would want a D to do except get off the field in spots you think they should be able too.. mid 4th quarter other than USF they were sitting in pretty good spots.

i want to see a shift in playcalling immediately then. we've already d1cked away two games establishing the stupid.

 

[SWC75]

I think we've largely driven this into the ground - but some final thoughts:

1. While removing OT scores from the ppg stats make sense when ranking teams - the thing that was nagging me was that it's still worth something as far as evaluating the offense. An OT possession is a red zone trip. Scoring TD's with the game on the line 3 times does tell us something about our offense. (I wonder where our OT production would rank)

2. There are roughly 30 OT games a year in CFB. That means about half the teams (60) benefit from OT points (or at least have a chance to). That could reshuffle some teams a bit in the ranking if we removed OT scores from everyone. If we dropped a bunch of spots, you have to imagine other teams would too. Don't know or care to find out if it makes a real difference this season. But there is some noise in the data.

30 OT games a year in CFB. And we've played in two of them halfway through the season!

 

[Millhouse]

This season reminds me of 2012 a bit (not in all ways, not a direct comparison, full disclaimer etc etc) in that it feels like we are better than our results offensively.

The reason I've been fighting against the stat people so much is this year feels and looks so different this the past two Shafer seasons on O.

you have it completely backwards. this is the opposite of 2012 where they were better at moving the ball than scoring. this year we are scoring better (we all know why by now) than we move the ball.

 

[TheCusian]

you have it completely backwards. this is the opposite of 2012 where they were better at moving the ball than scoring. this year we are scoring better (we all know why by now) than we move the ball.

Not looking to argue about stats. Don't care about points or yards. Hence the disclaimer.

It looks and feels like similar in that the offense should be more potent than it is. I don't know if the non-cyborg part of you is capable or if you've been assimilated yet - but "feel" is when your eyes tell you something different than the data.

 

[Millhouse]

Not looking to argue about stats. Don't care about points or yards. Hence the disclaimer.

It looks and feels like similar in that the offense should be more potent than it is. I don't know if the non-cyborg part of you is capable or if you've been assimilated yet - but "feel" is when your eyes tell you something different than the data.

i feel like the offense is stupid and i feel like dungey can continue to make holy plays on his own for different coaches

 

[TheCusian]

i feel like the offense is stupid and i feel like dungey can continue to make holy plays on his own for different coaches

noted. also since you didn't respond, I'll assume you're a cyborg please spare my family