Official 2015 Offensive Prediction thread

[orangenauburn]

2014 Passing - 2,209 YDs; 6 TD / 17 INT
2014 Rushing - 1,750 YDS; 12 TD
2014 Offense - 3,959 YDS; 18 TD
2014 Average - 330 YDs and 1.5 TD per game
2014 ST - 17/23 FG; 20/21 XP
2014 PPG - 17.08

2015 Passing - 2,600 YDs; 19 TD / 10 INT
2015 Rushing - 2,400 YDs; 16 TD
2015 Offense - 5,000 YDs; 35 TD
2015 Average - 417 YDs and 2.92 TD per game
2015 ST - 18/24 FG; 37/39 XP
2015 PPG - 25.08

Edit - conservative guess

 

[CUSU]

2015 Passing - 2,500 YDs; 15 TD / 11 INT
2015 Rushing - 2,100 YDs; 15 TD
2015 Offense - 4600 YDs; 30 TD
2015 Average - 383 YDs and 2.5 TD per game
2015 ST - 22/30 FG; 31/32 XP
2015 PPG - 23

 

[orangenauburn]

2015 Passing - 2,500 YDs; 15 TD / 11 INT
2015 Rushing - 2,100 YDs; 15 TD
2015 Offense - 4600 YDs; 30 TD
2015 Average - 383 YDs and 2.5 TD per game
2015 ST - 22/30 FG; 31/32 XP
2015 PPG - 23

we were so baaaaaaad last year ... I thought I was being safe, but the numbers I put down for this year dwarf last year

 

[CUSU]

we were so baaaaaaad last year ... I thought I was being safe, but the numbers I put down for this year dwarf last year

The difference is I think we actually score this year. A few times.

 

[SUskibum]

2015 Passing - 2,600 YDs; 13 TD / 11 INT
2015 Rushing - 2,600 YDs; 26 TD (6-7 of these will be Hunt's bringing his total TD/INT ratio to close to 2)
2015 Offense - 5200 YDs; 39 TD
2015 Average - 400 YDs and 3 TD per game
2015 ST - 26/35 FG; 31/32 XP
2015 PPG - 27

Based on a 13 game season (obviously!)

 

[SUskibum]

we were so baaaaaaad last year ... I thought I was being safe, but the numbers I put down for this year dwarf last year

It helps to look at 2013 and go incrementally from there, at least that what I did :noidea:

EDIT: another tidbit I found helpful was that average FBS team scored 1 point for every 15 yards gained on average over the last two seasons (and both those seasons were similar as well)

 

[SUFaninNJ]

Just be much better please.

 

[Millhouse]

2014 Passing - 2,209 YDs; 6 TD / 17 INT
2014 Rushing - 1,750 YDS; 12 TD
2014 Offense - 3,959 YDS; 18 TD
2014 Average - 330 YDs and 1.5 TD per game
2014 ST - 17/23 FG; 20/21 XP
2014 PPG - 17.08

2015 Passing - 2,600 YDs; 19 TD / 10 INT
2015 Rushing - 2,400 YDs; 16 TD
2015 Offense - 5,000 YDs; 35 TD
2015 Average - 417 YDs and 2.92 TD per game
2015 ST - 18/24 FG; 37/39 XP
2015 PPG - 25.08

Edit - conservative guess

i work backwards from rankings. it's easy to talk myself into whatever yardage or TDs but when I see where it stacks up in the national rankings, then I get more skeptical

your predicted total yardage would've been 57th last year. scoring would've been 89th.

i guess i'm less hopeful about yardage and more hopeful about scoring. as bad as the offense was last year, the red zone was worse. maybe there is some regression to the mean where we are the same in offense and in the red zone (however good or bad both might be)

being 80th in both would get you to 27 ppg and 388 yards per game.

when the offense is so bad the year before, it's hard to predict anything because you end up asking yourself, is it really possible that their scoring could improve 60% (my example of going from 17 to 27)

 

[TheCusian]

i work backwards from rankings. it's easy to talk myself into whatever yardage or TDs but when I see where it stacks up in the national rankings, then I get more skeptical

your predicted total yardage would've been 57th last year. scoring would've been 89th.

i guess i'm less hopeful about yardage and more hopeful about scoring. as bad as the offense was last year, the red zone was worse. maybe there is some regression to the mean where we are the same in offense and in the red zone (however good or bad both might be)

being 80th in both would get you to 27 ppg and 388 yards per game.

when the offense is so bad the year before, it's hard to predict anything because you end up asking yourself, is it really possible that their scoring could improve 60% (my example of going from 17 to 27)

Yep. I'm not sure predicting things from one OC to another or from tons of injuries to health is all that meaningful either.

I'd be shocked/floored if we weren't better than last season. I'd bet, just based on the recruiting star analysis that everyone loves to cite, that we should be about in the middle. What % was injury + Mcit? How much worse do teams normally get just losing their 1st team QB?

Can we get 60% better if 40% of the issues were removed?

 

[Millhouse]

Yep. I'm not sure predicting things from one OC to another or from tons of injuries to health is all that meaningful either.

I'd be shocked/floored if we weren't better than last season. I'd bet, just based on the recruiting star analysis that everyone loves to cite, that we should be about in the middle. What % was injury + Mc. . . . it? How much worse do teams normally get just losing their 1st team QB?

Can we get 60% better if 40% of the issues were removed?

different way to look at it.

improvement in yards per play to get to different ranks in yards per play

90th = 8% improvement
80th = 10%
70th = 12%
60th = 16%
50th = 20%
* i'm going to keep going even though c'mon this isn't happening
40th = 23%
30th = 27%
20th = 33%
10th = 37%

 

[TheCusian]

different way to look at it. improvement in yards per play to get to different ranks in yards per play 90th = 8% improvement 80th = 10% 70th = 12% 60th = 16% 50th = 20% * i'm going to keep going even though c'mon this isn't happening 40th = 23% 30th = 27% 20th = 33% 10th = 37%

You did some analysis - how much would it go up if we just replaced those bubble screens with something upfield?

I'm shocked those % aren't higher we were so bad last year.

 

[TheCusian]

Also - we face less imposing defenses this year. Playing 4th string QB's vs top 30 D's really makes it extreme

 

[Millhouse]

You did some analysis - how much would it go up if we just replaced those bubble screens with something upfield?

I'm shocked those % aren't higher we were so bad last year.

it would've helped hunts qb efficiency a lot but i don't know how much difference in yards per play. it's definitely super easy low hanging fruit though.

 

[CuseCactus]

25 points per game including Rhode Island. Take out Rhode Island, 22.5 points per game. We're dropping fifty Friday night.