Ok i agree i have been off the chart on this but im afraid we are going to make the same mistake we made with Greg and give Doug one year too long. My point is simple. He needs to show significant improvement next year or we should buy out the last year of his contract. Five years does nothing as he will be a lame duck coach and recruiting will suffer. Next year if he is off to a good start give him an extension if not buy his last year out and move forward.
What is the harm in giving Marrone a two year extension during the Spring? That will allow two things. First it will give him 5 years, with the 5th year being 110% all his players. And second and most important it will allow him to recruit for next year's class. That is very very very important. It takes awhile to build a relationship with HS coaches. And supposedly Marrone is to have a break through class this next class. If we do not extend Doug, then he will be trying to recruit next year's class with one hand tied behind his back. That isn't fair to him and HURTS the program. Do you really want the next HC after Marrone to have NOTHING to work with?
So IMO the best thing for the PROGRAM is to extend Marrone two years in the Spring with a VERY favorable buyout for years 6 and 7. If the next year's recruiting class is not Top 40 and Marrone has a mediocre 2012, then in 2013 he will need to have a good year to keep his job. So at worst we keep Marrone two more years, have two mediocre seasons, and have some players for the next HC to work with. At best Marrone figures things out and returns SU FB to a Top 25 program.
IMO that is not a big risk to take. A bigger risk would be letting Marrone go after year 4, and having no players for the next HC to work with. Unless 2012 is a complete cluster , the best thing for SU FB is to give Marrone 5 years.
That being said I have always believed that you can tell what you got in a HC in year 3. Not in terms of Ws and Ls in year 3, but you will be able to fully evaluate systems, in game coaching, how they run the program, and the type of talent they can bring in. That does not necessarily mean that a HC should be fired after 3 years, but you can tell if your HC will be successful or mediocre after 3 years. Unless of course you have a GRobesque HC who is so bad that they deserve to be fired after 3 years.
Well after 3 years I think Marrone will not be successful at SU coaching the way he has thus far. He would have to make drastic changes to be a success. IMO a success would be an average of 8-5 every year or better. Which would mean over .500 in the ACC (5-4), 2-0 vs non BCS/1AA, and 1-1 vs OOC BC/Bowl game. That is more than fair to judge success.
IMO Marrone's systems suck. I do not think his O can be successful at a school like SU. You need too much talent. I also do not think Shafer's D can be successful at SU. Shafer's D asks a lot of the players in it. If you have talent then it can be an awesome D. However with average talent it allows way too many big plays by design. You cannot expect SU talent to consistently make the plays he is requiring them to. So based on systems (which can change), I cannot see Marrone being a success.
I am not a fan of Marrone's in game coaching. I have no problem at all his his sideline demeanor and actually prefer it compare to some of these other knuckleheads. However I do feel we need someone on the sideline who does have emotion. Every staff needs that type of guy to fire people up. I think Marrone has a bunch of zombies on the sideline and this hurts. Of course this is easily something that can be changed. What I do not think will change is Marrone's ultra conservative decisions and awful time management. Those things IMO you either get or you don't. They will not change. So based on in game coaching I do not think Marrone will be a success.
I have no problem and actually like how Marrone is trying to run the program. He seems to get this part of things. What he is trying to teach the kids, how he deals with the media, and tries to involve the community are all good things. Based on this I think he could be a success.
Which leaves the type of talent Marrone can bring in. I like his strategy of direct flights to Syracuse. That is a very smart thing. But in terms of actual talent he has brought in, I am a bit concerned. I like the DBs he has brought in. I like the LBs he has brought in, although I think there are too many of them. I like what we have at DT as well. However I am concerned with the DEs. There doesn't seem to be much there. I am a bit worried of how we will replace Marinovich, and I think he is mediocre at best.
Then there is the O. I like the TEs he has brought in. However I do not think TE is really all that important, and is more of a luxury position. You cannot build an O around them. I will say it is too early to tell with QB and OL. However WR is a bit concerning. That is a position kids can get onto the field early. So far we have seen nothing from that position. And finally we have the RBs. Wow. RB IMO is a position that you can recruit a ton of them, as they can easily be moved to over positions (WR, FB, DB, LB, DE). The fact that we have so few RBs on the roster is alarming. Why do we have no depth? RB is also a position that kids can get on the field early. The fact that we haven't seen production from Marrone RB's is alarming. I am very concern about replacing Bailey and he is nothing special.
I think Marrone has done a good job recruiting depth to the team. That is something that GRob lacked. There aren't as many holes as there used to be. However Marrone hasn't been able to recruit any playmakers and that is a concern. I think based on recruiting it is TBD whether Marrone can be successful, but I am certainly leaning toward that answer being no.
So IMO if you take what we have seen thus far from Marrone as a HC, I do not believe he will be a success at SU. I think he is looking like a HCRE clone. Which will be maddening for SU fans. He will be the type of HC to do just enough to keep his job. Which means he will likely be here 7 years. I cannot see Marrone turning things around unless he makes a bunch of changes.
