I understand all of this. I've already twice mentioned the case where if the writers feel that an injustice was done to the steroid-era players that they could have a process to give special consideration to the players affected. There have been several special committees over the years to take certain groups of individuals into consideration, the most recent of which was the Committee on African-American Baseball (2005-06). The 15 year rule goes out the window in such situations.
"Never" is a long time. Both Barry Bonds and Charlie Hustle will make it to Cooperstown at some point, possibly posthumously.
15 year rule stays in play. What you are referring to is the Veterans Committee. Veterans Committee takes up the voting process from the writers after 15 years. They are separated into 3 distinct eras (Pre-Integration, Golden, Expansion) and evaluate from there. Includes members from media, executives and current Hall of Famers as part of their vote. The Committee of African-American Baseball relayed what they thought was appropriate as the Veterans Committee dealt with that era.
Do you feel as confidently about Alex Rodriguez? I just don't share your optimism.
The most intriguing HOF vote (in regards to an individual) will be when Ken Griffey Jr. is eligible.
And, honestly, if a potential candidate dies after the age of 75, I would rather see their name taken off the ballot. Hall of Fame doesn't mean anything to these guys when they are dead.
My last comment on the matter is that we are about to see a logjam of candidates, meaning some very deserving players will be left out of the voting process by failing to get 5 % of the vote. Next year will be very interesting with how many potential Hall of Famers are there (Maddux, Glavine, Mussina, Luis Gonzalez, Frank Thomas) that if no one gets elected again next year, there is a HUGE problem entering 2015 (Nomar, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield).
There are plenty of "a$$holes" in the HOF, so, I don't think that will be the reason he doesn't make it.
The combination of the 2 is the reason. While he tested positive for PED's, many feel he tainted the record books. The fact he is an a$$hole, as opposed to a guy like Andy Pettitte in the eyes of the media, leaves many people not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I think Alex Rodriguez is going to have the same problem when he is eligible.