OT: Eliminate NBA draft?

[jncuse]

Stan's brother Jeff was on the radio last week saying college players should be drafted too. Eliminate the choice and have them go where selected. His theory was it eliminates the shady recruiting dealings he also recognized it would never happen.

In Canada we have a draft model for Junior Hockey, where 15 and 16 year olds are told where they have to go. So they have to move, and make moves that may not be best for their development all in the name of parity. Fans are more concerned about keeping the league fair then the well being of a 16 year old.

Some argue with me that the kid made the choice to go ... but he had no other alternative choice for the next few years until the US College route. Just because the kid made a choice to enter the league voluntarily, (or a basketball player voluntarily chose to enter the NCAA), doesn't mean we can't come up with a fairer model for them.

 

[jncuse]

I'm not sure the draft works. Philly has had a top 5 pick for the last decade and it hasn't made them any better.

The Sixers are projected to be around .500 this year. They are certainly becoming better (the BIG risk being Embiid). They now have what seems like a good top core in Embiid, Simmons and Fultz, and many good supporting players now in Furkmaz, Saric, Okafor, Redick, Covington. They also have a future Lakers or Kings pick which should be top 10, plus a lot of cap space when they might become desirable next offseason.

While it seemed like they tanked forever, the tanking process has "only" been 4 years. The Sixers have only had top five picks for 4 years, not 10. It was painful, but I think they are ready to make it work.

 

[moqui]

interesting; here are some adjustments that could help it. just spitballing here

• eliminate the draft
• institute a hard cap for veteran players
• institute a set of rookie slots per team, or total rookie salary per team that does not count against main cap
  
• the latter could be adjusted for competitive balance - small market and/or poorly performing teams get an extra slot(s) or extra $$$

 

[Melancer46]

The Sixers are projected to be around .500 this year. They are certainly becoming better (the BIG risk being Embiid). They now have what seems like a good top core in Embiid, Simmons and Fultz, and many good supporting players now in Furkmaz, Saric, Okafor, Redick, Covington. They also have a future Lakers or Kings pick which should be top 10, plus a lot of cap space when they might become desirable next offseason.

While it seemed like they tanked forever, the tanking process has "only" been 4 years. The Sixers have only had top five picks for 4 years, not 10. It was painful, but I think they are ready to make it work.

Philly actually isn't projected to have any cap space next offseason, especially if they re-sign Joel Embiid. I'm sure they'll probably make a move or two to carve out a little bit of cap space at least, but they don't figure to be major players in free agency right now at all.

Still a pretty nice core if they can all stay healthy though. Having Embiid likely on a max contract could potentially ruin their franchise if his health continues to be an issue though.

 

[Knicks411]

The Sixers are projected to be around .500 this year. They are certainly becoming better (the BIG risk being Embiid). They now have what seems like a good top core in Embiid, Simmons and Fultz, and many good supporting players now in Furkmaz, Saric, Okafor, Redick, Covington. They also have a future Lakers or Kings pick which should be top 10, plus a lot of cap space when they might become desirable next offseason.

While it seemed like they tanked forever, the tanking process has "only" been 4 years. The Sixers have only had top five picks for 4 years, not 10. It was painful, but I think they are ready to make it work.

Fwiw, I'm way under on the Sixers this year. Don't trust Embiid at all.

Philly actually isn't projected to have any cap space next offseason, especially if they re-sign Joel Embiid. I'm sure they'll probably make a move or two to carve out a little bit of cap space at least, but they don't figure to be major players in free agency right now at all.

Still a pretty nice core if they can all stay healthy though. Having Embiid likely on a max contract could potentially ruin their franchise if his health continues to be an issue though.

Is that true? Is that including cap holds on JJ and Amir? It seems like it's hard to get to no cap space from what I'm looking ati, but I've been wrong before

 

[Melancer46]

Fwiw, I'm way under on the Sixers this year. Don't trust Embiid at all.



Is that true? Is that including cap holds on JJ and Amir? It seems like it's hard to get to no cap space from what I'm looking ati, but I've been wrong before

Yeah, I imagine they'll renounce their cap holds to create space if need be. I think that would get them to roughly $20-25 mil in cap space. If they sign Embiid to an extension during the season, that number would go down to probably somewhere around $10-15 mil, which isn't nothing, but they aren't getting another great player with that kinda money.

I don't know why they would even consider signing Embiid until next offseason though, so that hypothetical probably doesn't matter.

For the record, there's only like 5 teams in the entire league that are currently projected to have cap space without making additional moves to create some.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah, I imagine they'll renounce their cap holds to create space if need be. I think that would get them to roughly $20-25 mil in cap space. If they sign Embiid to an extension during the season, that number would go down to probably somewhere around $10-15 mil, which isn't nothing, but they aren't getting another great player with that kinda money.

I don't know why they would even consider signing Embiid until next offseason though, so that hypothetical probably doesn't matter.

Yeah Embiid is a huge question mark; they can create some additional space by using his cap hold and trying to sign him next summer. They've been trying to move Okafor for a while, could move him as well.

They also probably want to sign Covington though, forgot about that.

 

[Melancer46]

Yeah Embiid is a huge question mark; they can create some additional space by using his cap hold and trying to sign him next summer. They've been trying to move Okafor for a while, could move him as well.

They also probably want to sign Covington though, forgot about that.

Yeah, if it's me, I hold off on signing Embiid and Covington to extensions since their cap holds are lower than their new contracts will be. That way they can make the most of their cap space before going over the cap to sign those guys long-term.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah, if it's me, I hold off on signing Embiid and Covington to extensions since their cap holds are lower than their new contracts will be. That way they can make the most of their cap space before going over the cap to sign those guys long-term.

I guess the only thing is you lose a little bit of control of the situation; they could sign one of those Chandler Parsons's RFA deals where it's 2+1 or whatever as opposed to 4 years.

Covington's cap hold is probably going to be so ridiculously low though. There are so many question marks with Embiid. When the guy plays, he's a killer. But how much is he going to play? But someone probably offers him a max next summer, so he probably has no incentive to sign for less before then? Real tough call all around.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I guess the only thing is you lose a little bit of control of the situation; they could sign one of those Chandler Parsons's RFA deals where it's 2+1 or whatever as opposed to 4 years.

Covington's cap hold is probably going to be so ridiculously low though. There are so many question marks with Embiid. When the guy plays, he's a killer. But how much is he going to play? But someone probably offers him a max next summer, so he probably has no incentive to sign for less before then? Real tough call all around.

Not many teams can offer a max.

 

[Knicks411]

Not many teams can offer a max.

Right I keep forgetting everyone has spent all their money, that's a good point.

His max is like 4/70 I think; teams could probably make it work, but if you think the Sixers are gonna match, do you do all that work to open up cap space and tie it up for a few days just to have philly match?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Right I keep forgetting everyone has spent all their money, that's a good point.

His max is like 4/70 I think; teams could probably make it work, but if you think the Sixers are gonna match, do you do all that work to open up cap space and tie it up for a few days just to have philly match?

Probably not.

The guys becoming free agents over the next two years are going to be disappointed.

 

[Knicks411]

Probably not.

The guys becoming free agents over the next two years are going to be disappointed.

NBA 2018 Cap Tracker

Sportrac has 5 teams with at least $30 million in "practical" cap space for next year. You can always make things happen. (Of course one of them is Philly)

 

[OttoinGrotto]

NBA 2018 Cap Tracker

Sportrac has 5 teams with at least $30 million in "practical" cap space for next year. You can always make things happen. (Of course one of them is Philly)

Lebron will suck up the Lakers space.

The Mavs could maybe have an interesting off-season.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

In Canada we have a draft model for Junior Hockey, where 15 and 16 year olds are told where they have to go. So they have to move, and make moves that may not be best for their development all in the name of parity. Fans are more concerned about keeping the league fair then the well being of a 16 year old.

Some argue with me that the kid made the choice to go ... but he had no other alternative choice for the next few years until the US College route. Just because the kid made a choice to enter the league voluntarily, (or a basketball player voluntarily chose to enter the NCAA), doesn't mean we can't come up with a fairer model for them.

American kids get drafted into the Juniors as well.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

I'm not sure the draft works. Philly has had a top 5 pick for the last decade and it hasn't made them any better.

Also eliminates the need for kids to leave college early. Either you get a guaranteed contract and you leave, or you stay in college until the offer is attractive.[/QUOTE
The main reasons the leave are:
To get paid now:
To get through the 1st contract sooner, to get to free agency, to get the bigger bucks earlier.

 

[cuse522]

Also eliminates the need for kids to leave college early. Either you get a guaranteed contract and you leave, or you stay in college until the offer is attractive.

Was wondering when someone would bring that up, as I read through the whole thread today. This would be a great change for college basketball... But, of course, it'll never happen.

In an imaginary world where it could, I think the way to do it would be to:

1. Institute some sort of luxury tax on rookie contracts to keep all of the teams on even footing. If the Lakers want to give a kid a huge deal, they pay a surplus that is divided among the bottom five to 10 revenue teams to be used in their rookie pool the next X years. Also you could cap rookie spending over a five year stretch or something... So the Lakers could go after only one prospect every few years. This would still be enough to be a HUGE advantage, but only if they scouted well and make good decisions. It would also be a source of great intrigue for the sports media.

A better fix to the tanking problem would be something like, you can't pick in the top five in the draft more than twice in three years or three times in five years... Something like that. If you tank that bad for that long, you get to pick sixth after you've used up your top picks. It also increases the risk of getting unlucky and drawing the fifth spot a few times, which likely means not getting a superstar at all for your tanking. Perhaps give the 9th place finisher in each conference a shot in the lottery from like 3rd through 5th, too, and make those exempt from the rule.

That would also make it interesting in years the top of the draft was not as good, with the teams at the bottom furiously trying not to use up one of their top-5 spots that year.

 

[Zelda Zonk]

The draft is like Gun Control. It's never going to be perfect, and it can't prevent every problem, but it's still effective.

Philly 'hasn't improved' because they intentionally selected three players with injuries. They're going to be pretty good this year, no? If everyone has recovered and can play full-ish seasons?

The draft is designed both to uplift the poor and to prevent the elite from too easily becoming 'overly' elite. It's a compressor, in audio terms. But, compressors still permit some high and some low levels to pass through.

I was just thinking maybe there should be something in the system that disallows any playoff team from drafting in the top 10, for any reason. They can't even trade for those picks. But, then a poor team should be allowed to make that assessment, if they're receiving value (to them) for that high pick... I dunno. The issue of tanking seems to be such a media issue, but as a fan, i really have not cared a single bit when Philly or the Knicks or whoever are losing games at the end of the season. I'm just not watching those games, because the interesting side is the teams struggling to make the playoffs. Keep it as a lottery, with odds, but just reduce the variance between the odds. And figure out a way to make the actual lottery draw something that cannot even appear to be corruptible. The whole show of revealing the teams' pick order just seems like such a sham. Have them do a tournament of Choosies or RockPaperScissorsSpock for it, where the final team record determines how many times you have to win. Seriously, though — some sort of Non-Fixable system for determining draft order, where the audience can see it all happening. Give each team rep the appropriate number of pieces of paper squares, fold them, and put them into a Bingo globe spinner. None of that high(er) tech unweighted pingpong balls in a vacuum BS.