OT / General Interest - Bubble Watch and Tourney Comments - Week of March 11 (Part 1)

[longtimefan]

With all the craziness of today and this week, there are now a few new teams that really weren't discussed as problematic entering the week who could be in trouble - Michigan St, Oklahoma and Florida Atlantic (although I targeted them).

Time to go sleep, got back home late - will look at it tomorrow.

4:12 AM EDT? I hope you live in British Columbia.

 

[jncuse]

4:12 AM EDT? I hope you live in British Columbia.

Caught up with a friend at an event in Ottawa yesterday (about 75 minutes away). Then we caught up with a another friend we hadn't seen in years for a drink afterwards around 11:00. Next thing you know its almost 2;00,, and didn't get home until after 3;00. It was late when I got back.

Then had to yap about the craziness from yesterday on this board.

 

[longtimefan]

Caught up with a friend at an event in Ottawa yesterday (about 75 minutes away). Then we caught up with a another friend we hadn't seen in years for a drink afterwards around 11:00. Next thing you know its almost 2;00. It was late when I got back.

Then had to yap about the craziness from yesterday on this board.

See what you got yourself into!

 

[NineOneSeven]

Time to expand to 72!

 

[jncuse]

Here is the current bubble line per the matrix (based on today's 39 submissions only) Given everything that happened yesterday, I don't think it makes sense to use the 67 ones from the prior
day or two

These are the teams I will consider today.

Out of 39

Michigan St 39 (Avg Seed 10.1)
Miss St 37 (Avg Seed 9.4)
Colorado 37 (Avg Seed 10.0)
Florida Atlantic 36 (Avg Seed 9.9)
Oklahoma 32 (Avg Seed 10.2)
Texas A&M 30 (Avg Seed 10.1)
-------
St. John's 17
Seton Hall 3
Virginia 3
Indiana St 1
Pitt 1
Providence 0

Although Michigan St is 39/39, that avg seed is not any stronger than the rest. People are putting them in, but barely. I suspect in the end a few brave people on the matrix will have them out.

As the week progressed things got really ugly for the Big East and ACC teams... and to be fair, they actually didn't "choke" overall. St. John's, Pitt, Providence all had big wins. They just got caught by the numbers game.

 

[jncuse]

I wanted bubble chaos this week and we certainly got it.

As a reminder. from my first post, here was the matrix consensus entering this week. Bolded teams have now moved from in to out.

Rankings (out of 51)
Seton Hall 51
Miss St 49
Virginia 49
St John's 47
Colorado 43
Indiana St 33
----------
New Mexico 28
Villanova 13
Texas A&M 12
Wake 2
Pitt 2
Providence 2

The bolded teams didn't even do that badly, but the bracket busters did chaos that I have never seen,

Indiana St didn't even play - they went from 65% in to 2% per today.

Seton Hall lost to St. John's -- I'm sure many called them a lock / very high even if they lose that game. They go from being on 100% of the brackets, to being on 8% today.

St. John's actually got a huge win over Seton Hall. and played well against UConn. They fall from 92% in, to 31% in.

Virginia, went 1-1 against average teams at the time. Nothing really good, but not typically disastrous either causing you to go from 98% to 5% today.


I also highlighted Texas A&M. They seemed to finally get respect from the matrix. Yes they got two wins, but they jumped well ahead of teams that had 1 themsleves. For those reading my posts for the last week before start of conference week, I said they were the one team that was underrated by the matrix and should get more respect. I think the quality win number (including 3 OOC Q1 victories) just got too much for them to be ignored.

 

[Marsh01]

Indiana state got a death sentence not playing all week. when you have to sit and wait all week you often get leapfrogged

 

[jncuse]

Indiana state got a death sentence not playing all week. when you have to sit and wait all week you often get leapfrogged

Most times they fall, but usually just a spot or two on the matrix Projected last in, might move down to projected first or second out, and then still be fully at whims of the committee. Indiana St went from expecting to be at the "whims of the committee" to DOA.

5 Bubble busters this week was crazy

More years are like our "golden" bubble years of 2016-2018, where teams that are out early (like Syracuse was) dodge almost all the bullets - no bubble busters, fellow bubble teams not winning or the odd Q3 loss in tourney week. Where there was maybe one bubble buster each year. I know we got did in by the A-10 final that one year (2017?)

 

[atlanticuse]

Seton Hall got lit up as much as we did this year.

 

[jncuse]

Seton Hall got lit up as much as we did this year.

They got destroyed in Q1 losses like us, and their Q4 victory margin of around 18 was also subpar to the norm.

Which is why their NET is at a modest 67. If we would have won a few more games, or if there had been less busters this week, it would have been an interesting comparison to us.

They had a solid 13-7 conference record, with some huge wins.

They deserve to get in the tournament more than us. But neither deserves it either right now.

 

[blust2i3d4]

So who are the losers this week from the strong bubble play and potential bubble busters.
1. Indiana St.
2. Potentially The ACC Bubble and the Big East Bubble, who didn't do terribly in general, but might just have one of their members squeezed.

This week we have had the following
3 teams around the line make their conference finals (or semi's in the case of A&M)
- Texas A&M just on the outside to start the week(for some, not me) make a run in the SEC - pick up a Q2 and Q1
- Colorado get to the Pac-12 Final (solidifying their resume which was heavily NET based and susceptible)
- New Mexico get to the MWC Final (Solidifying their resume which was heavily NET based)
1 Bubble Buster, with a few more realistic ones as possibilities.
- Dayton lose in the ACC (Bubble Buster)
- Oregon make the Pac-12 FInal (Potential Bubble Buster)
- NC State make the ACC Final (Potential Bubble Buster)
- Florida Atlantic still look very so-so in the AAC but survive with 2 games to go (Potential Bubble Buster)

If I am Virginia with now "2 Q1 Wins" I am worried.

We will have more Q1 wins than Virginia.

 

[sufan59]

We will have more Q1 wins than Virginia.

Cuse resume can be a great sorting tool for the higher net teams they have to sort through. Worst losses than Syracuse, automatic out of consideration. Less Q1 wins than Syracuse, automatic out of consideration.

 

[jncuse]

Cuse resume can be a great sorting tool for the higher net teams they have to sort through. Worst losses than Syracuse, automatic out of consideration. Less Q1 wins than Syracuse, automatic out of consideration.

Other than Texas A&M there isn't really a bunch of teams with bad losses this year (and Texas A&M has quality - lots of quality)... unless you ding Florida Atlantic who went 4-1 against the P6 in OOC.

In terms of less Q1 wins - there is only one team with less than our 3. Virginia. Almost everybody else has 4 or more, a few with 3.

 

[jncuse]

My projected seeds for the tournament,

Rather than discussing, have to make the picks... based on what I think will happen, and not what deserves to happen. If I have time in the end, I will state a few teams that I think "deserve" be in or out on each side (i.e. Michigan St). A strong bubble this year.


#1 Seeds
Overall #1 - UConn (what's that letter we place in front of them again)
Purdue
Houston
Iowa St

#2 Seeds
UNC
Tennessee
Arizona
Marquette

#3 seeds
Baylor
Creighton
Auburn
Duke

# 4 seeds
Illinois / Wisconsin winner
Kansas
Kentucky
Illinois / Wisconsin loser

#5 seeds
Alabama
BYU
South Carolina
Florida

#6 seed
Texas Tech
San Diego St
St Mary's
Washington St

#7 seed
Clemson
Utah St
Gonzaga
Nevada

#8 Seeds
Nebraska
Boise St
Texas A&M
Northwestern

#9 Seed
Texas
Mississippi St
New Mexico
Dayton

#10 seed
Florida Atlantic
Dayton

#10 seed play-ins
Michigan St vs TCU
Seton Hall vs Colorado

#11 seed
NC St
Oregon
Drake
Grand Canyon

#12 seed
UAB
Duquesne
Mcneese St
James Madison

#13 seeds
Samford
Yale
Charleston
Vermont

#14 seeds
Akron
Oakland
Colgate
Morehead St

#15 seeds
Long Beach St
Western Kentucky
South Dakota St
Longwood


#16 Seeds
Stetson
St Peters


#16 seed Play In'
Wagner
Grambling St
Howard
Montana St

Last 4 in
Michigan St
TCU
Seton Hall
Colorado


First 4 Out
Oklahoma
St John's
Providence
Virginia

 

[jncuse]

Still working on the above, but I decided that Oklahoma will be left out.
The "message" to the B12 and other leagues concering Q4 abundance will be sent this way.
I also have B12 having a team in the play in game. The "message" again.

4 Q1 wins is nice, but its 4-12 with some of those games possibly not Q1 quality.
And 5-0 in Q2 is very nice, and 9-12 overall is fine.

And no teams have ever missed with only Q1 losses.
But its a tight bubble.

And they played 8 Q4 games in a conference that may have ****** around and found out - the "message".

 

[jncuse]

I have Seton Hall as my "surprise" team off the bubble.
13-7 in the Big East, with 2 high quality wins amongst their 5 Q1 wins.
Honestly I was not sure to go with my last pick.

So in the end vs consensus, my only difference is Seton Hall instead of Oklahoma.

 

[rrlbees]

They got destroyed in Q1 losses like us, and their Q4 victory margin of around 18 was also subpar to the norm.

Which is why their NET is at a modest 67. If we would have won a few more games, or if there had been less busters this week, it would have been an interesting comparison to us.

They had a solid 13-7 conference record, with some huge wins.

They deserve to get in the tournament more than us. But neither deserves it either right now.

The NCAA “claims” they don’t use margin of victory. My guess is they’ll use it when it helps their narrative.

 

[Cuse181]

POST IN PROGRESS - My projected seeds for the tournament,

Rather than discussing, have to make the picks... based on what I think will happen, and not what deserves to happen. If I have time in the end, I will state a few teams that I think "deserve" be in or out on each side (i.e. Michigan St). A strong bubble this year.


#1 Seeds
Overall #1 - UConn (what's that letter we place in front of them again)
Purdue
Houston
Iowa St

#2 Seeds
UNC
Tennessee
Arizona
Marquette

#3 seeds
Baylor
Creighton
Auburn
Duke

# 4 seeds
Illinois / Wisconsin winner
Kansas
Kentucky
Illinois / Wisconsin loser

#5 seeds
Alabama
BYU
South Carolina
Florida

#6 seed
Texas Tech
San Diego St

#7 seed


#10 seed
Texas A&M



#10 seed play-in
Michigan St vs TCU

#11 seed
NC St
Oregon
Drake

#11 seed play in
Seton Hall vs Colorado

#12 seed
Grand Canyon
UAB
Mcneese St
James Madison

#13 seeds
Samford
Yale
Charleston
Vermont

#14 seeds
Akron
Oakland
Colgate
Morehead St

#15 seeds
Long Beach St
Western Kentucky
South Dakota St
Longwood


#16 Seeds
Stetson
St Peters


#16 seed Play In'
Wagner
Grambling St
Howard
Montana St

Last 4 in
Michigan St
TCU
Seton Hall
Colorado


First 4 Out
Oklahoma
St John's
Providence
Virginia

Good luck

 

[jncuse]

Trying to rifle a bracket together for old times -- One thing I predict is that the Houston "Dallas" region will be the weakest 1 thru 4, due to the newer location principles.

 

[jncuse]

	BOSTON
	Brooklyn
1​	Uconn
16​	Wagner / Grambling St
8​	Boise St
9​	Texas
	Pittburgh
4​	Illinois
13​	Vermont
5​	South Carolina
12​	Mcneese St
	Charlotte
2​	UNC
15​	Longwood
7​	Gonzaga
10​	Michigan St / TCU
	Omaha
3​	Creighton
14​	Oakland
6​	San Diego St
11​	Oregon

 

[jncuse]

	DETROIT
	Indianopilis
1​	Purdue
16​	St Peters
8​	Texas A&M
9​	Dayton
	Spokane
4​	Kansas
13​	Charleston
5​	Alabama
12​	Duquesne
	Charlotte
2​	Tennessee
15​	Western Kentucky
7​	Clemson
10​	Colorado St
	Salt Lake City
3​	Baylor
14​	Morehead St
6​	Washington St
11​	Grand Canyon

 

[jncuse]

	DALLAS
	Memphis
1​	Houston
16​	Stetson
8​	Northwestern
9​	Miss St
	Spokane
4​	Wisconsin
13​	Samford
5​	BYU
12​	UAB
	Indianopolis
2​	Marquette
15​	South Dakota St
7​	Nevada
10​	Seton Hall / Colorado
	Memphis
3​	Auburn
14​	Akron
6​	Texas Tech
11​	NC ST

 

[jncuse]

	Los Angeles
	Omaha
1​	Iowa St
16​	Montana St / Howard
8​	nebraska
9​	New Mexico
	Pittsburgh
4​	Kentucky
13​	Yale
5​	Florida
12​	James Madison
	Salt Lake City
2​	Arizona
15​	Long Beach St
7​	Utah St
10​	Florida Atlantic
	Brooklyn
3​	Duke
14​	Colgate
6​	St Mary's
11​	Drake