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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2026243, member: 1969"]
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The numbers can move slightly if we get a disproportionate amount of road wins moving forward, or if teams that we played in general play much better then they have shown.

But those are good estimates in my experience from tracking RPIForecast the past few years.

Just predicting what the committee would think in each scenario about the RPI, even if it has been diminished.

While the RPI has been diminished, they will never ignore the expected #98 that comes from being 9-9.  A number like #98, says go look for crap and emphasize that.   At 9-9 in the ACC we could have 5 top 50 wins which will be about as many as anybody on the bubble, but the committee would emphasize the bad.

10-8 in the ACC creates an RPI of 82 that is at least close to the highest they have given an at large too.   I believe the high is around 75.   But still it's a number that will force the committee in my mind to look at the bad losses rather than the top 50 we will inevitably have.

11-7 in the ACC creates an RPI of 68, which is in range of the lowest RPI each year that gets an at large each year.   And given that at 11-7 we will have likely have as many or more top 50 wins than anybody else with a good bubble resume, I think we would get in.  Once that RPI is around 70 at least it's around what sometimes gets in, so subconsciously the committee can focus more on the good rather than the bad.

12-6 would give us an RPI of 55 that is not out of the ordinary at all for a P5 team on the bubble.  You can't win 12 ACC games without loading up on top 50 wins and we would have more top 50 wins than likely anybody else on the bubble.

So in my view 12-6 is the clear lock
11-7 is the same feeling as we had last year entering the ACC tourney. which means it could very well work.
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