Discussion in 'Syracuse Basketball Board' started by orangemass, Jan 9, 2017.
Is 161... Lots of work to do...
Yes sir and lots of great opportunities lie ahead for this team to get that number down
That's why talk of 9-9 getting us in is absolutely cray cray. Has to be 11-7 with a win in the ACCT for insurance.
Sad to say but;
Finish top 3 in ACC reg season
Win ACC's automatic bid
How are you coming up with 9-9 or 11-7. We have 15 games left. Are you counting 3 additional games in the ACCT?
Let's just win the ACCT and be done with it.
Overall ACC regular season record. Including the 3 we've already played.
RPI wasn't a factor last year...9-9 and 2 wins in the ACC Tourney I think we are in. Gotta beat a Top 10 team in there too.
9-9 and we aren't close to the bubble.
We have a stretch coming up with 9 straight games against RPI top 36 teams. As of yesterdays rankings. Go 5-4 during that stretch and i bet our RPI gets into the 60s. Maybe the 50s.
12-6 or we aren't making the NCAAT.
We literally have nothing from the OOC schedule.
Bad losses to UConn/St.Johns/BC.
We need 12 ACC wins and win a ACCT game.
We need 20 wins to make the NCAAT.
Yeah 9-9 would require us to reach the ACC championship game, at a minimum, IMO. I guess it's all relative to how strong/weak the bubble is, however.
Playing 5 - 6 players in a tournament it will be tough to win 2 games, let alone 3.
This sounds right... I'm not sure even the title game would do it but maybe. We'd be 17-14 going in so losing in the title game would make us 20-15. That probably still requires a very weak bubble I think we'd have to win the whole tourney. Even at 10-8 we'd probably still need to make the title game (21-14). We really need to go 11-7.
The RPI is so awful... I guess the committee still looks at it but maybe no longer more than KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI.
At 10-6 we have played some truly awful RPI teams (which overrated SOS) leading to us being #164 as of this post. Yet we are #46 on Sagarin and #52 on KenPom. Huh? That's a 112-118 spot difference! And somehow Wake Forest is RPI #22 at 10-6. What an awful system. RPI has been proven to be the worst tournament predictor of the indexes. Here's an article on CSU being left out at #32 RPI.
RPI no longer important, NCAA tournament makes example of CSU
Every time you make an early RPI post an angel is beaned in the face with a basketball
The numbers can move slightly if we get a disproportionate amount of road wins moving forward, or if teams that we played in general play much better then they have shown.
But those are good estimates in my experience from tracking RPIForecast the past few years.
Just predicting what the committee would think in each scenario about the RPI, even if it has been diminished.
While the RPI has been diminished, they will never ignore the expected #98 that comes from being 9-9. A number like #98, says go look for crap and emphasize that. At 9-9 in the ACC we could have 5 top 50 wins which will be about as many as anybody on the bubble, but the committee would emphasize the bad.
10-8 in the ACC creates an RPI of 82 that is at least close to the highest they have given an at large too. I believe the high is around 75. But still it's a number that will force the committee in my mind to look at the bad losses rather than the top 50 we will inevitably have.
11-7 in the ACC creates an RPI of 68, which is in range of the lowest RPI each year that gets an at large each year. And given that at 11-7 we will have likely have as many or more top 50 wins than anybody else with a good bubble resume, I think we would get in. Once that RPI is around 70 at least it's around what sometimes gets in, so subconsciously the committee can focus more on the good rather than the bad.
12-6 would give us an RPI of 55 that is not out of the ordinary at all for a P5 team on the bubble. You can't win 12 ACC games without loading up on top 50 wins and we would have more top 50 wins than likely anybody else on the bubble.
So in my view 12-6 is the clear lock
11-7 is the same feeling as we had last year entering the ACC tourney. which means it could very well work.
Its not the ACC record that matters most. It's who have you beaten on the path to achieving that record. Go near 500 but beat Duke, UNC, virginia, etc, and its a totally different ballgame than a slightly better record with less impressive wins.
I think it also depends on how many bids the ACC gets. It'd be hard to keep SU out at 11-7 if the conference gets 10 or 11 bids, even 9 bids should be good enough if 11-7 means 6th place all alone or a tie for 6th with one other team. A tie for 6th with no bid would mean 3 teams with worse conference records got bids and 6th all alone would mean 4 got bids.
We'd be on the bubble's bubble
Top 25 wins are better than top 50 wins no doubt. So mix would matter - but I still think that is a more relevant factor if we get to 11-7.
My only concern with your comment is that at 10-8, even with 3 "elite" wins, our RPI would likely still be over 80 entering tourney week. Quality of wins tends not to make difference on RPI based on the formula, if you end up with the same number of wins (unless the mix veers towards road wins) While RPI is diminished I would not want to be the first team trying to get an at large over 80.
I am not going to worry about it now
We also have no wins outside of the Dome. I have no problems with optimism, but comparisons to last year don't work when we had two really strong OOC wins.
the whole issue is that RPI is completely flawed by design and if you play the wrong schedule it looks even worse. you still need to beat good teams to have a shot.
I am comparing going 11-7 in a numerically stronger conference vs 9-9 last year. That is how we sort of equalize the total crap we have achieved to date vs last year.
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