Pitt opens -11.5 over Syracuse

[FloridaCuse]

Back up to -11.5 tonight.

Some sites, including ESPN, now have it -10.5. A few at -11 & one still at -11.5.

 

[HyattsCuse]

Some sites, including ESPN, now have it -10.5. A few at -11 & one still at -11.5.

Really hate I’m thinking this way, but this feels like free money picking Pitt with the points.

1) Small sample set, but bye weeks have not been favorable in the Fran era so far. Two L’s last year.
2) Pitt just seems to have our number and can’t help but think this is a repeat of last year.
3) A Collins led offense couldn’t put up points against SMU or Duke, but I should believe they will against Pitt?

 

[upperdeck]

Say vs SMU Collins completes 1 3yd pass and 1 wide open deep pass. Both simple passes. SU scores 30+. Do people view the team differently?

Its like the difference between good golf and great golf is 2-3 more makes of 4ft par putts.

 

[hungrychuck]

3 keys to victory:

1. Pitt team that played West Virginia has to show up.
2. Have to win the turnover battle.
3. Competent Red zone offense.

All long shots.

Pitt is more physical, faster and has a much better QB.

Other than that, I think we’re in good shape.

 

[HyattsCuse]

Say vs SMU Collins completes 1 3yd pass and 1 wide open deep pass. Both simple passes. SU scores 30+. Do people view the team differently?

Its like the difference between good golf and great golf is 2-3 more makes of 4ft par putts.

False equivalence. In golf, if you miss a 4 foot putt, that is completely independent of how you do on another hole. Every hole is unique. It’s an individual sport.

In football, one or two plays can easily affect other plays if not the whole flow of the offense in the game because there is a defense. If Collins hits a deep ball, now the defense has to respect that. Since he missed, the D can continue to dare him to try it again which allows them to stack defenders for the run or shorter routes since they know they aren’t going to get beat over the top.

Also suggesting we could have scored 30 points based on a play or two is a stretch. We scored two meaningless TDs in the 4th quarter. Again, SMU would have played differently if the game was still in doubt.

 

[FloridaCuse]

Some sites, including ESPN, now have it -10.5. A few at -11 & one still at -11.5.

Almost all sites now at -10.5

 

[OrangeTarheel]

Almost all sites now at -10.5

That doesn’t seem like a meaningful drop right? If it went from 10.5 to 9.5 that would be more meaningful I would think.

Also, I’m awful at betting anything so there’s that

 

[OttosShoes]

That doesn’t seem like a meaningful drop right? If it went from 10.5 to 9.5 that would be more meaningful I would think.

Also, I’m awful at betting anything so there’s that

Mathematically it's not a huge deal. I see the spread like I see fuel economy. If you've got a Freightliner and pick up 1MPG, going from 7 mpg to 8mpg you just picked up 14% savings on fuel.

If you've got a prius and you pick up 1mpg, 47mpg to 48mpg is only 2%.

Basically, the percentage is what I look at. If it's OSU vs Michigan and it goes from 2.5 to 1.5 that means a lot more than Syracuse vs. Pitt going 11.5 to 10.5.

 

[007]

That doesn’t seem like a meaningful drop right? If it went from 10.5 to 9.5 that would be more meaningful I would think.

Also, I’m awful at betting anything so there’s that

Value-wise, a 3 point swing from the opening line is generally seen as a good play.

From an SU-centric universe, it's interesting that the line opened at "only" +11.5 and has moved down currently from there. Not sure what that means, but both occurrences are interesting to me.

 

[upperdeck]

vegas has been pretty bad on line swings this year

 

[SURules]

vegas has been pretty bad on line swings this year

I hate to say it but take the line with Pitt. Are the lights going to suddenly come on with our now defunct offense that can’t score? Can we hit wide open receivers down field? Can our run game suddenly be effective? Can the defense stop the Pitt run game? Way too many questions on our team right now. I hope I’m wrong but Pitt wins big. I’ll be there in the stands regardless.

 

[DocFlanders]

I hate to say it but take the line with Pitt. Are the lights going to suddenly come on with our now defunct offense that can’t score? Can we hit wide open receivers down field? Can our run game suddenly be effective? Can the defense stop the Pitt run game? Way too many questions on our team right now. I hope I’m wrong but Pitt wins big. I’ll be there in the stands regardless.

Yes this seems like easy money on Pitt

 

[upperdeck]

Pitt has 3-4 guys on offense that are a handful in the open field. Do we have any?

 

[690West]

I hate to say it but take the line with Pitt. Are the lights going to suddenly come on with our now defunct offense that can’t score? Can we hit wide open receivers down field? Can our run game suddenly be effective? Can the defense stop the Pitt run game? Way too many questions on our team right now. I hope I’m wrong but Pitt wins big. I’ll be there in the stands regardless.

1. Yes
2. Yes
3. Yes
4. No

3 out of 4. I think we win Saturday according to this exercise.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Pitt has 3-4 guys on offense that are a handful in the open field. Do we have any?

Yes we do. We just can’t get them the ball.

 

[orangemass]

Pitt seems like a terrible match up. I’ll be watching and wishing for the best. Can a night time liquored up crowd help? Can’t hurt

 

[NineOneSeven]

Pitt seems like a terrible match up. I’ll be watching and wishing for the best. Can a night time liquored up crowd help? Can’t hurt

At kickoff I’m sure it’ll be loud, then when we are down 14 and Rickie throws a pick into 5 defenders it’ll die down and people will complain how dead it sounds and looks in there.

 

[23Zone]

Gotta open the playbook and try some trick plays. Love how Clemson opened the game first play against UNC with double pass for easy score. We need to do this!

 

[FrancoPizza]

At kickoff I’m sure it’ll be loud, then when we are down 14 and Rickie throws a pick into 5 defenders it’ll die down and people will complain how dead it sounds and looks in there.

And someone will still defend the idea that he’s our best chance.

 

[Goin' Deep]

PITT is very aggressive on D.
Blitzes..DBs want to jam up receivers.
So...?
Run at them. Willis needs 20+ carries.
We're in the REDZONE... and it's 3 and 2 from the 4 yd. line?
Put in Villari at QB..he takes the snap and 2 steps forward and dumps a pass
to the TE over the middle.
CUSE needs to win time of possession...significantly. Cannot have repeated 3-and-outs.
Can't trust Collins to repeatedly throw short. 2nd and 4...throw deep.
PITT can be vulnerable...air it out- we'll draw penalties.

 

[Archbold44]

And someone will still defend the idea that he’s our best chance.

You mean Fran Brown??

 

[IthacaBarrel]

And someone will still defend the idea that he’s our best chance.

and someone will defend that he isn't. Nobody knows.

Hey will all hope Carney is the next Baker Mayfield but there are 6 games left and we have no chance in 3 of them. Give Rickie Pitt but if they go to Carney and he looks like a true freshman at ND, Miami, GT they could be all timers. Rough road ahead regardless

We will probably go through a couple Qb's when we play Miami's defense

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If our OL is really that hurt the spread should be double what it is.

 

[FloridaCuse]

It looks like virtually every good Syracuse player is on this list, except the RBs and #5.

 

[sufan59]

Pitt only favored by 8.5 on ESPN