Polls for Mar 25: Media #3 / Coaches #3 / USALAX #5 | Syracusefan.com

Polls for Mar 25: Media #3 / Coaches #3 / USALAX #5

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At roughly midseason, we’re back to where we started — but nothing has gone to script. Notre Dame is atop the Men’s DI Media Poll, the spot they held the first three weeks of the rankings.

Previous No. 1 Army fell to Boston U on Friday, the fourth time in five weeks the top-ranked team was beaten. The Black Knights fell to No. 6, and BU leapt into the rankings at 17.


Virginia is No. 2 but receiving several first-place votes. The Cavaliers (8-1) took care of Drexel and UAlbany this week.

Syracuse is up to No. 3 amid a five-game winning streak and took down Duke midweek before retaining the Kraus-Simmons Trophy against Hobart. Syracuse and Notre Dame face each other this weekend on the ACC Network.

No. 4 Penn State was tested by Ohio State in a Big Ten battle but prevailed, keeping its seven-game winning streak intact. Their lone loss was on Feb. 3 to Colgate.

Duke responded to its deflating offensive showing midweek against Syracuse with a workmanlike win against Denver on Sunday at the College Lacrosse Live Series.

Maryland (down to 12 from 7) and Michigan (up to 14 from 19) had a lot of movement after the Wolverines' dramatic win. Quinnipiac, which is the lone undefeated men’s DI team and enters the poll for the first time.


Check out the full Men's DI Media Poll.

RankTeamPointsPrev
1Notre Dame (5 - 1)489 (17)2
2Virginia (8 - 1)481 (8)3
3Syracuse (9 - 2)4346
4Penn State (7 - 1)4245
5Duke (9 - 2)3834

 
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USA LACROSSE DIVISION I MEN’S TOP 20​

1. Notre Dame, 5-1 (Prev: 1)
2. Penn State, 7-1 (Prev: 4)
3. Virginia, 8-1 (Prev: 5)
4. Army, 7-1 (Prev: 2)
5. Syracuse, 9-2 (Prev: 9)
6. Duke, 9-2 (Prev: 3)
7. Johns Hopkins, 6-3 (Prev: 10)
8. Georgetown, 6-2 (Prev: 11)
9. Cornell, 5-2 (Prev: 13)
10. Yale, 4-2 (Prev: 7)
11. Denver, 6-2 (Prev: 6)
12. Michigan, 6-3 (Prev: 19)
13. Maryland, 5-3 (Prev: 8)
14. Princeton, 5-3 (Prev: 17)
15. Penn, 6-3 (Prev: 12)
16. Boston U, 6-2 (Prev: NR)
17. Harvard, 6-2 (Prev: 14)
18. North Carolina, 6-3 (Prev: 15)
19. Richmond, 5-4 (Prev: 16)
20. Rutgers, 6-3 (Prev: 18)

Also considered (alphabetical order): Colgate (6-3), Delaware (4-3), High Point (6-4), Navy (5-4), Ohio State (5-5), Quinnipiac (7-0), Saint Joseph’s (5-3), Towson (6-3), Villanova (5-3)
 
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4) Syracuse​

Otto suffocated Duke 10-4 on Wednesday night to solidify their top ten status. This win, following a hard fought gritty victory over Hopkins, is one that resonates. Suddenly Syracuse has a competent defense. Billy Dwan III marked Brennan O’Neil and the rest of the group pushed Blue Devil shooters away from the slot area allowing goalie Will Mark to do his thing. Syracuse has grown up. They have continued to improve, adjust, evolve and move forward. They are more solid in the middle of the field, facing off, clearing and defensively.

#HHH showed maturity at Hobart on Saturday getting the job done while competing in unseasonably wintry weather with snow and cold. Defender Billy Dwan III scored twice on the ice. Trey Deere subbed in for Owen Hiltz and scored twice. SU was sloppy early and then acclimated. When the Orange believe the hype they are vulnerable. When they dig in an just play clean lacrosse, they can be quite good. SU has the strongest strength of record metric in D1.

Cuse at Notre Dame on March 30 in a game I will be covering (ESPN+). Notre Dame’s blowout win a week ago against Michigan is the best lacrosse I’ve seen this spring.
 
GJhG_kdWwAAJL0-



4) Syracuse​

Otto suffocated Duke 10-4 on Wednesday night to solidify their top ten status. This win, following a hard fought gritty victory over Hopkins, is one that resonates. Suddenly Syracuse has a competent defense. Billy Dwan III marked Brennan O’Neil and the rest of the group pushed Blue Devil shooters away from the slot area allowing goalie Will Mark to do his thing. Syracuse has grown up. They have continued to improve, adjust, evolve and move forward. They are more solid in the middle of the field, facing off, clearing and defensively.

#HHH showed maturity at Hobart on Saturday getting the job done while competing in unseasonably wintry weather with snow and cold. Defender Billy Dwan III scored twice on the ice. Trey Deere subbed in for Owen Hiltz and scored twice. SU was sloppy early and then acclimated. When the Orange believe the hype they are vulnerable. When they dig in an just play clean lacrosse, they can be quite good. SU has the strongest strength of record metric in D1.

Cuse at Notre Dame on March 30 in a game I will be covering (ESPN+). Notre Dame’s blowout win a week ago against Michigan is the best lacrosse I’ve seen this spring.

Fair.
 
GJhG_kdWwAAJL0-



4) Syracuse​

Otto suffocated Duke 10-4 on Wednesday night to solidify their top ten status. This win, following a hard fought gritty victory over Hopkins, is one that resonates. Suddenly Syracuse has a competent defense. Billy Dwan III marked Brennan O’Neil and the rest of the group pushed Blue Devil shooters away from the slot area allowing goalie Will Mark to do his thing. Syracuse has grown up. They have continued to improve, adjust, evolve and move forward. They are more solid in the middle of the field, facing off, clearing and defensively.

#HHH showed maturity at Hobart on Saturday getting the job done while competing in unseasonably wintry weather with snow and cold. Defender Billy Dwan III scored twice on the ice. Trey Deere subbed in for Owen Hiltz and scored twice. SU was sloppy early and then acclimated. When the Orange believe the hype they are vulnerable. When they dig in an just play clean lacrosse, they can be quite good. SU has the strongest strength of record metric in D1.

Cuse at Notre Dame on March 30 in a game I will be covering (ESPN+). Notre Dame’s blowout win a week ago against Michigan is the best lacrosse I’ve seen this spring.

I wonder which programs Quint is thinking about here?: "I have a feeling that we could be seeing massive coaching turnover at the end of the 2024 season. I sense some coaches are now on the hot seat. Two or three key jobs that domino into five or six changes at “Power 5” programs. Let’s see how April shakes down."

One I have to imagine is UNC (he refers to them as "falling into the abyss" earlier in the piece). OSU? Rutgers? Brown?
 
I wonder which programs Quint is thinking about here?: "I have a feeling that we could be seeing massive coaching turnover at the end of the 2024 season. I sense some coaches are now on the hot seat. Two or three key jobs that domino into five or six changes at “Power 5” programs. Let’s see how April shakes down."

One I have to imagine is UNC (he refers to them as "falling into the abyss" earlier in the piece). OSU? Rutgers? Brown?

Likely OSU, not sure the Rutgers Admin realizes the recruiting issues Brecht has and he did get to a final four a few years ago. Ohio State seems to be in a real tough spot right now, they likely need a complete re-set. The UNC situation is also fascinating. Breschi seems to have 9 lives but you figure the walls are closing in barring some crazy scenario where UNC goes on a run in the ACC and somehow makes the tourney (highly unlikely). I know the expectation is that Petro will slide in there but after what happened at Hopkins is that really the path UNC wants to take? Maybe for recruiting purposes they keep Petro with that great 2025 class but man that's a big gamble and the vultures are gonna be circling for those commits either way (they likely already are including SU). The flip side is if they let Breschi go and hire say the High Point Coach, then maybe little Petro or some of the other impact young guys take off as well. The UNC admin has trapped themselves a bit here.

As an aside that UNC game sneakily remains the biggest game on the schedule, SU HAS to win that game.
 
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I wonder which programs Quint is thinking about here?: "I have a feeling that we could be seeing massive coaching turnover at the end of the 2024 season. I sense some coaches are now on the hot seat. Two or three key jobs that domino into five or six changes at “Power 5” programs. Let’s see how April shakes down."

One I have to imagine is UNC (he refers to them as "falling into the abyss" earlier in the piece). OSU? Rutgers? Brown?
Might have included JHU if they had blown another lead against Rutgers that they were on their way to doing.
 
x.com/laxreference/status/1772270233333444787?s=46&t=QhAqAA_66MZX8ukCD1Y_ZQ

This guy is such a weirdo. Had Duke as a “lock” two weeks ago, hilariously took them out of the lock category after they lost to us, and now has them back as a lock for the tourney after they beat Denver. How are they a lock with 4 games left to play??? If Duke loses out they will have gone 0-4 and missed the ACC tourney. They ain’t making it if they do that and their best win is a Denver team that could easily get passed by GTown in the big east.

Just the fact he is taking teams in and out of the “lock” category is hilarious. Almost as hilarious as having our projected over under for wins this season at 5.5! Very hard to take the dude seriously, despite him occasionally providing some interesting stats.
 
Might have included JHU if they had blown another lead against Rutgers that they were on their way to doing.

Mililman has done a pretty godo job there, quarters last year and played ND tough in that game. Team's a bit uneven offensively which has effected them in several of their losses including that bizarre one to Navy. I can't see any scenario where he is fired even if Hop somehow lost out. The bigger issue for him is what does that team look like next year. They are a very upper class heavy team and lose a ton to graduation including Angelus, Degnon, McDermott, Peshko, Szuluk, Ierlan, Grimes, their top defender Scott Smith, every SSDM on the depth chart including Aviles, Raposo, Brett Martin and Jaronski along with Stoebner who was starting at close and moved to LSM when Kilrain bumped up. They also lose one half of the fogo combo in Dunn and there's a couple other guys who have an extra year of eligibility who may or not use it in Melendez and Deans.

Hop brings in a good class but they will likely have to hit the portal hard but the competition will again be fierce as hell as ND and Duke also lose a boatload and UVA loses its top 2 scorers. Not to mention SU will again be active and can offer a team who will likely be a title favorite.
 
x.com/laxreference/status/1772270233333444787?s=46&t=QhAqAA_66MZX8ukCD1Y_ZQ

This guy is such a weirdo. Had Duke as a “lock” two weeks ago, hilariously took them out of the lock category after they lost to us, and now has them back as a lock for the tourney after they beat Denver.

Just the fact he is taking teams in and out of the “lock” category is hilarious. Almost as hilarious as having our projected over under for wins this season at 5.5! Very hard to take the dude seriously, despite him occasionally providing some interesting stats.

He (really, his model) took them out of the lock category because he was incorrectly projecting with 9 at-large bids available until I pointed that out, here:


https://twitter.com/laxreference/status/1769710743081959795

I disagree with Zack's model using probabilistic projections of future results to "lock" teams, and at the time he (incorrectly) had Duke as a lock, the first time, I did not even have them as a seed at that point.

With all that said - about "locks" - I personally feel that Syracuse is very close to lock status right now, which is what I assume most of the people here care about.

9-6 Syracuse would likely get in unless there's absolute chaos with a bunch of off the wall teams winning the AQs in Big Ten/Ivy/BE.
 
66016349862a5.jpg



At roughly midseason, we’re back to where we started — but nothing has gone to script. Notre Dame is atop the Men’s DI Media Poll, the spot they held the first three weeks of the rankings.

Previous No. 1 Army fell to Boston U on Friday, the fourth time in five weeks the top-ranked team was beaten. The Black Knights fell to No. 6, and BU leapt into the rankings at 17.


Virginia is No. 2 but receiving several first-place votes. The Cavaliers (8-1) took care of Drexel and UAlbany this week.

Syracuse is up to No. 3 amid a five-game winning streak and took down Duke midweek before retaining the Kraus-Simmons Trophy against Hobart. Syracuse and Notre Dame face each other this weekend on the ACC Network.

No. 4 Penn State was tested by Ohio State in a Big Ten battle but prevailed, keeping its seven-game winning streak intact. Their lone loss was on Feb. 3 to Colgate.

Duke responded to its deflating offensive showing midweek against Syracuse with a workmanlike win against Denver on Sunday at the College Lacrosse Live Series.

Maryland (down to 12 from 7) and Michigan (up to 14 from 19) had a lot of movement after the Wolverines' dramatic win. Quinnipiac, which is the lone undefeated men’s DI team and enters the poll for the first time.


Check out the full Men's DI Media Poll.

RankTeamPointsPrev
1Notre Dame (5 - 1)489 (17)2
2Virginia (8 - 1)481 (8)3
3Syracuse (9 - 2)4346
4Penn State (7 - 1)4245
5Duke (9 - 2)3834

I wonder if the Michigan coach still thinks the B1G is the best lacrosse conference.
 
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He (really, his model) took them out of the lock category because he was incorrectly projecting with 9 at-large bids available until I pointed that out, here:


https://twitter.com/laxreference/status/1769710743081959795

I disagree with Zack's model using probabilistic projections of future results to "lock" teams, and at the time he (incorrectly) had Duke as a lock, the first time, I did not even have them as a seed at that point.

With all that said - about "locks" - I personally feel that Syracuse is very close to lock status right now, which is what I assume most of the people here care about.

9-6 Syracuse would likely get in unless there's absolute chaos with a bunch of off the wall teams winning the AQs in Big Ten/Ivy/BE.
I would consider ND and UVA virtual locks, not Duke. I wouldn't put Cuse as a lock yet but close - if we lose to ND and UVA, would make things tougher for sure. I would be very surprised if we don't beat UNC handily.
 
Mililman has done a pretty godo job there, quarters last year and played ND tough in that game. Team's a bit uneven offensively which has effected them in several of their losses including that bizarre one to Navy. I can't see any scenario where he is fired even if Hop somehow lost out. The bigger issue for him is what does that team look like next year. They are a very upper class heavy team and lose a ton to graduation including Angelus, Degnon, McDermott, Peshko, Szuluk, Ierlan, Grimes, their top defender Scott Smith, every SSDM on the depth chart including Aviles, Raposo, Brett Martin and Jaronski along with Stoebner who was starting at close and moved to LSM when Kilrain bumped up. T

You are correct: Milliman isn't going anywhere. Even when the real Hopkins crazies wanted him gone after the 2-8 all conference play regular season in 2021 or the sub-.500 regular season in 2022... it was obvious he was going to get plenty of time to attempt a turnaround and has tentatively succeeded. Hopkins was in a very bad place when Milliman took over.

^ Does this sound familiar to 'Cuse fans in any way?

Your bolded point above has been what I've been most interested in ever since the 2023 season ended. I felt that Hop had a likely quarterfinal/possible final 4 level team heading into 2024. Of course, I'd like to see Hopkins live up to that potential while the talent is on the roster. But next season will be more telling: is 23-24 Hopkins the real level of the program again or an unusual confluence of an good amount of talent at once? Time will tell.

I will be happy if Hopkins is a top 10 level team, competing for an at-large bid/lower seed in 2025. It would make me feel a lot better about the future of the program if an NCAA bid is once again on the table in what seems like it could be a down year.
 
I would consider ND and UVA virtual locks, not Duke. I wouldn't put Cuse as a lock yet but close - if we lose to ND and UVA, would make things tougher for sure. I would be very surprised if we don't beat UNC handily.

Syracuse has a much stronger profile than UND or UVA right now. Don't pay attention to the polls, they mean nothing in terms of tourney status.

Syraucse has two top 5 wins currently. Had Maryland not flipped into the top 10 of RPI yesterday, there was a real debate over whether UND and UVA even deserved seeds as of right now. Duke is in the same general boat as UND/UVA.

No one is a lock yet, but Syraucse is very close.
 
I would consider ND and UVA virtual locks, not Duke. I wouldn't put Cuse as a lock yet but close - if we lose to ND and UVA, would make things tougher for sure. I would be very surprised if we don't beat UNC handily.
I don't want to exaggerate, but this seems like the most volatile D1 rankings I can remember in a while. So many teams are hard to figure out. Cuse is a great example - we could be steadily getting better and be a final 4 lock or...not. I don't know what to make of Duke - where is the offense? Maryland is not as dominant, Iveys inconsistent etc etc
 
I would consider ND and UVA virtual locks, not Duke. I wouldn't put Cuse as a lock yet but close - if we lose to ND and UVA, would make things tougher for sure. I would be very surprised if we don't beat UNC handily.

Quoting for follow up if you don't mind.

I expected there would be a ton of push back from people who only watch the games and not the nerdy/mathy stuff about the current evaluations of the ACC teams, with only Syracuse really being in a strong position.

Looking at these profiles, do you still feel that Notre Dame and Virginia rise above the rest?

GJhIZlyWgAAqUaR.jpg
 
Quoting for follow up if you don't mind.

I expected there would be a ton of push back from people who only watch the games and not the nerdy/mathy stuff about the current evaluations of the ACC teams, with only Syracuse really being in a strong position.

Looking at these profiles, do you still feel that Notre Dame and Virginia rise above the rest?

View attachment 239106
I hear you - not compelling numbers for UVA and ND. I think the polls and many of us are all influenced by last season's results, the talent on ND and UVA and the elite coaching they have.

Should be a very interesting next few weeks.
 
I think Syracuse HAS to beat NC to "lock in" a bid. If they lose all 4 remaining games they are likely not in the ACC Tournament losing the 1-4 tiebreaker to NC. If Syracuse beats just Cornell it "might" be enough to get a bid. Might. Remember Gary said he scheduled strong so they'd be in a place to get a bid even if they didn't win an ACC game. But they lost to Maryland & Army and those losses aren't as less bad now as they were at the time. Beating Duke helps.
 
He (really, his model) took them out of the lock category because he was incorrectly projecting with 9 at-large bids available until I pointed that out, here:


https://twitter.com/laxreference/status/1769710743081959795

I disagree with Zack's model using probabilistic projections of future results to "lock" teams, and at the time he (incorrectly) had Duke as a lock, the first time, I did not even have them as a seed at that point.

With all that said - about "locks" - I personally feel that Syracuse is very close to lock status right now, which is what I assume most of the people here care about.

9-6 Syracuse would likely get in unless there's absolute chaos with a bunch of off the wall teams winning the AQs in Big Ten/Ivy/BE.
Ahhh thank you that makes more sense. At least he is not actually taking teams in and out of the lock category. Still I definitely agree it is odd to call a team a lock just based on projecting them to win enough games. Duke would certainly not be a lock if they ended the year 9-6 with no ACC wins right? Seems like their schedule was designed around performing well in the ACC or bust.
 
Fieldystick is too modest, but here is their most recent bracketology. Good stuff, I always get way too engrossed in bracket prediction. I've long thought his predications are better than what the actual committee comes up with.

Fiedly (if I may call you that), this seems like a silly question, but here goes. Bracketology is always done as a point in time projection (at least that is my understanding). Have you ever thought to do it as a predicative exercise? Say if "favored" teams win out the rest of the way? I've always wondered if that might be helpful, since the season still has so much more to go.

Last thing, but how much does the selection committee take into account RPI and SOS? I always think they go mostly with RPI, but maybe in recent years less so since it's not the best for sports with small sample sizes (Quint mentioned this in his column this week). Given that RPI seems so far off this season to what the polls are telling us (I think Yale, despite coming off a loss is still #1), I wonder if how much the committee will weigh it. I know they can shift priorities when they meet, but I thought there was some sort of agreed upon criteria they have before the season starts. Thanks,

 
Might have included JHU if they had blown another lead against Rutgers that they were on their way to doing.
he just got an extension after their quarterfinals appearance last year. his seat is safe for the next few years at least. quint is certainly talking about:

myers - osu
breschi - unc
daly - brown

barring massive turnarounds at least one or two of those guys will be gone. i like buczek for osu. "buczek wouldnt leave cornell" you say...well he is from ohio and they would probably break the bank to get him. near home/family + $$$ = leaving your alma mater...and never underestimate coaches desire to get the heck out of the ivy league, especially cornell lol

toomey is probably going to have to shake up his staff at loyola after this year. they cant keep doing what they're doing

i know they just beat hop but i dont see amplo at navy longterm. lots of discontent there

i dont see any other earth shattering moves this cycle... brecht is not the problem at rutgers. it just isnt an attractive place to go to school for undergrad compared to other big ten schools, accs, ivies, gtown etc. they recruit at a lehigh-towson-st. joes-umass-drexel type of level and have for many years
 
he just got an extension after their quarterfinals appearance last year. his seat is safe for the next few years at least. quint is certainly talking about:

myers - osu
breschi - unc
daly - brown

barring massive turnarounds at least one or two of those guys will be gone. i like buczek for osu. "buczek wouldnt leave cornell" you say...well he is from ohio and they would probably break the bank to get him. near home/family + $$$ = leaving your alma mater...and never underestimate coaches desire to get the heck out of the ivy league, especially cornell lol

toomey is probably going to have to shake up his staff at loyola after this year. they cant keep doing what they're doing

i know they just beat hop but i dont see amplo at navy longterm. lots of discontent there

i dont see any other earth shattering moves this cycle... brecht is not the problem at rutgers. it just isnt an attractive place to go to school for undergrad compared to other big ten schools, accs, ivies, gtown etc. they recruit at a lehigh-towson-st. joes-umass-drexel type of level and have for many years

Just curious why especially Cornell? I know they haven't won a Championship in years but seems like their tradition is as good as almost anyone else in the Ivy?
 
Having top 20 rankings but a 16 team tournament just doesn't make any sense to me.
 
Still I definitely agree it is odd to call a team a lock just based on projecting them to win enough games. Duke would certainly not be a lock if they ended the year 9-6 with no ACC wins right?

So to me "lock" means that you can lose out and still get in, no matter what, no questions asked. That is what I interpret that word to mean and what I assume most fans interpret it as.

I do not think 9-6 Duke is a lock. Could they get in at 9-6? Maybe. But it would be a pretty weak case. I would not want to go into selection Sunday with this profile if I were them.

If Duke wins one of BU/UNC, that's probably enough to get in. But still bubble.

If Duke wins both of those, they're a lock. Or, if Duke beats either of Notre Dame/Virginia and gets another high value win - they're a lock (regardless of results in BU/UNC games).
 

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