Pomeroy on the SU schedule

[moqui]

his statements are all true and really not that controversial, but will blow a few gaskets among our family of posters, I am sure

I'll just post an excerpt; link here for the full thing if you are a subscriber

But no, this is not a lecture about your eyes. Where was I? Oh yeah, this is a lecture about your opinion of Syracuse. Because the ACC schedule-maker played a cruel trick on them and in a few hours they are about to begin a stretch that includes at least three, and maybe four games that are at least as tough to win as playing Duke at home. They will probably lose one, two, or maybe even three games before the NCAA tournament begins.

This won’t necessarily be a negative reflection on Syracuse. If you think Syracuse is the best team in the country, these losses will not be inconsistent with that opinion. I suspect the Orange is #1 in the polls right now both because they’ve played well and because the schedule has been friendly. But I also know there are some people that truly think Jim Boeheim’s team is the best in the land. So basically, what I’m saying to the latter group is: Unless you deny the existence of home-court advantage, the best team in the land could, and actually should, lose some of these upcoming games. So stick to your guns over the next month. Perhaps I’m too pessimistic, but I’m guessing that will be impossible for you to do.

FWIW, I am one of those who think we have the best team in the country, and that is not going to change even with 2 or 3 losses, unless they suffer another injury or just look completely worn out.

 

[Lawrinson14]

It's a moot point if we win tonight. Very few programs have the home court that Pitt has. And we also have yet to play at Duke. THE HARDEST place to play in the country.

 

[moqui]

It's a moot point if we win tonight. Very few programs have the home court that Pitt has. And we also have yet to play at Duke. THE HARDEST place to play in the country.

I don't think it's a moot point yet . . . Pitt is reeling right now. UVA and Duke will be the more serious road tests, IMO.

 

[Knicks411]

Don't need to be a subscriber to read the entire article

This kind of goes hand in hand with the fact I pointed out earlier today; that Pitt has a higher % of winning tonight than this weekend at UNC

 

[CorduroyG]

Pomeroy! We're #1!

 

[Bornorange]

Hard to ever take Pomeroy's ratings seriously, his algorithm over rewards big margins of victory.
We have a coach who just cares about the win and not about by how much.
I always think we are the best team and if we lose I blame the refs and evil spirits.

 

[djcon57]

I think his points are 100% fair to "evaluate teams" and make up rankings and where you should be seeded, etc. I love hard road games cause I think it helps us long term in the season like the 2003 win @ Michigan State.

BUT...lots of people (not KenPom, more talking head types) really overrate road games for sake of the purpose of the season. The tourney is played on a neutral court. The champion will win 6 neutral court games with the highest seeded teams basically have 2 to 4 HOME/Neutral games. (except last year when we had to play Cal in San Jose, What)

 

[Orangezoo]

honestly louisville lost 3 in a row in their toughest stretch last year and like us were the fairly clear top team in all the land. Someone is going to get a big enough lead with too little time for us to come back or make enough plays to not allow us over the hump while down and beat us. Maybe once, maybe twice maybe 3 times. It is inevitable. And it still changes nothing regarding how good we are.

 

[Orangezoo]

Also not sure how others feel, and while I love cuse hoops, I could really be ok watching them play tonight, at duke , at UVA and then get to tourney time. Not yet excited about the ACC tourney in mourning for what the BE tourney has been. Just looking forward to Buffalo then hopefully MSG then hopefully arlington and hopping down to texas to watch our boys get JB #2. Kinda bummed there are so many games in between there of mild significance to us other than we gotta win.

 

[jncuse]

I think his key point is that we can lose 3 games, and if your position is that we are #1, it can still be held after that.

If we lose 3 games, some people will be blowing a gasket on this board.

 

[Knicks411]

I think his points are 100% fair to "evaluate teams" and make up rankings and where you should be seeded, etc. I love hard road games cause I think it helps us long term in the season like the 2003 win @ Michigan State.

BUT...lots of people (not KenPom, more talking head types) really overrate road games for sake of the purpose of the season. The tourney is played on a neutral court. The champion will win 6 neutral court games with the highest seeded teams basically have 2 to 4 HOME/Neutral games. (except last year when we had to play Cal in San Jose, What)

I think it's more about using road games to evaluate a team's quality. You're right everything in the tournament is (mostly) a neutral site. But winning on the road is much tougher than winning at home, and I think the average fan doesn't seem to get that. (Not calling out anyone in this thread)

The funny thing about Pomeroy is that last year, when we went through our bad stretch at the end of the season, his system didn't really overreact to it at all. Before the 4 losses in 5 game stretch started, we were 7th in his rating. After the debacle in DC (what a wasted trip), we had fallen all the way to 12th. I can assure you if you don't remember, the general consensus on this board after that loss was not that we were one of the top 12 teams in the country.

And he's right in the blurb too; if we lose a few games down the stretch a lot of people here are going to overreact and say now we suck or whatever. And it's not going to be the case.

And the cal in San Jose thing is just more proof the committee doesn't really look at locations of games after the first round.

 

[MGP]

Pretty fair and accurate assessment, I would say. We still have a valid argument as being the best in the land even if we drop 2 or 3 down the stretch. Remember, that will not constitute everyone else running the table as well. When the smoke clears, I think even 2 or 3 losses will stand against most team's 6 or 7.

 

[djcon57]

I think it's more about using road games to evaluate a team's quality. You're right everything in the tournament is (mostly) a neutral site. But winning on the road is much tougher than winning at home, and I think the average fan doesn't seem to get that. (Not calling out anyone in this thread)

Oh yeah I agree with that, especially the quality line.
And I think it should affect seeding accordingly.

 

[br801]

FWIW, I am one of those who think we have the best team in the country, and that is not going to change even with 2 or 3 losses, unless they suffer another injury or just look completely worn out.

Based on what I've seen of this SU team and the competition this season, I fully expect a run to at least the second weekend, but I will be pleasantly surprised if this team goes into the NCAAT with fewer than 3 or 4 losses.

Even before BMK was hurt, this schedule had tough games and potential losses lurking on the back end. The important thing is to get BMK healthy, keep everyone else in one piece, and continue to play consistently hard on both ends of the court. I won't start to pace the floor until we're trailing in the second half of an NCAAT game.

 

[Fly Rodder]

If we lose 3 games, some people will be blowing a gasket on this board.

It's tough. There are only 8 regular season games left and SU hasn't lost. I'm fine with them dropping a game here or there. Undefeated is undeniably difficult and rare.

That said, it's hard not to be emotional about a loss. I'll watch tonight and root for SU to win. But I can't say that I'm not going to be oft-piste (some olympic skiing humor) when they're down 6 and Jermai clangs a should-be dunk or Cooney buries back rim or Rak gets whistled for his 3rd foul before the under 8 timeout in the first half.

 

[BuffOrange]

Hard to ever take Pomeroy's ratings seriously, his algorithm over rewards big margins of victory.
We have a coach who just cares about the win and not about by how much.
I always think we are the best team and if we lose I blame the refs and evil spirits.

He does adjust margin of victory for tempo though. Pretty sure we would rank a lot worse if he didn't.

I think his points are 100% fair to "evaluate teams" and make up rankings and where you should be seeded, etc. I love hard road games cause I think it helps us long term in the season like the 2003 win @ Michigan State.

BUT...lots of people (not KenPom, more talking head types) really overrate road games for sake of the purpose of the season. The tourney is played on a neutral court. The champion will win 6 neutral court games with the highest seeded teams basically have 2 to 4 HOME/Neutral games. (except last year when we had to play Cal in San Jose, What)

Agreed. Good road wins are a nice bragging right in February; and it's fine to weigh them extra heavily in rankings/seedings. But I don't think they mean a whole lot in March - other than the obvious causation/correlation that good teams are more likely to get them.
2010 is the posterchild for this. Cuse and Kansas were beating ranked teams on the road just about every week. Meanwhile Duke was getting beat by every decent team they played on the road - including getting run off the floor @G'town (but only losing by 12 'cause G'town eased up the last 2min's up 20).

 

[pearl31]

As evidenced in recent weeks with Kansas, Mich St and Arizona (the 3 best teams besides SU, IMO) - it's hard to win on the road, especially when your team is banged up. We might end up losing 3 of the games (tho I doubt it) but it won't take us out of the "true contender" grouping.

 

[Knicks411]

Fwiw, Duke was the #1 team at Pomeroy before the 2010 tournament

 

[BuffOrange]

I know. Until proven otherwise, I'm attributing that to Gonzaga getting drunk in NYC the night before they lost by 40. Seriously, they played all NIT teams in the ACCT. What.

 

[Knicks411]

I know. Until proven otherwise, I'm attributing that to Gonzaga getting drunk in NYC the night before they lost by 40. Seriously, they played all NIT teams in the ACCT. What.

Haha i remember looking at us playing Gtown in the quarters of the BET, who I think ended up a 3 seed, and then seeing who Duke played all the way through. Frustrating...

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

It's a moot point if we win tonight. Very few programs have the home court that Pitt has. And we also have yet to play at Duke. THE HARDEST place to play in the country.

Agreed...let's beat Pitt...the rest will take care of itself...