Predicting MCW's NBA success

[Quazzum69]

Now that MCW has officially announced his entry into the NBA draft ending the intense speculation about his future playing for the Orange, there is another important debate to be had: how will he fare in the Big Leagues? Will he blossom into the game's next great point guard or will he be stuck in the D-League forever? Maybe somewhere in between?

Here is some history of point guards drafted (since 2007):

*There have been 56 point guards drafted in the past six drafts; 35 first-rounders, 21 second-rounders
*Of these 56 PGs drafted, 21 have spent some time in the D-league; the odds of playing at least one game in the D-league are 87% higher for second-round PGs (7/35 1st round vs 14/21 2nd round)
*Of the first-rounders from 2007-2009 drafts, 15/18 are still playing in the NBA (Jonny Flynn is one of those not playing); Still, 17/18 first-round PGs played at least three years (one only made it 2 seasons)

I don't know what the success rate of other positions are, but I doubt they're as high as point guards. I think it's easier to gauge the talent/potential of a college point guard than say, a forward, who might appear better simply because of size/athleticism. It's safe to say that MCW will most likely play in the NBA for a while, especially if he can improve his shooting.

 

[orangenirvana]

I think MCW will be great in the NBA. Maybe not HOF great, but he'll have a long and successful career. He's barely tapped into his potential. As his body and mind mature he will truly come into his own. He has the potential to be a lock-down defender years down the road when he gets stronger. He'll never be a shooter, but that's not as important for a true PG and his size, athleticism, and vision will offset that.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Penny Hardaway -10 ppg

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think MCW will be great in the NBA. Maybe not HOF great, but he'll have a long and successful career. He's barely tapped into his potential. As his body and mind mature he will truly come into his own. He has the potential to be a lock-down defender years down the road when he gets stronger. He'll never be a shooter, but that's not as important for a true PG and his size, athleticism, and vision will offset that.

I was with you until "he'll never be a shooter." Shooting is a skill that can definitely be improved.

 

[orangenirvana]

I was with you until "he'll never be a shooter." Shooting is a skill that can definitely be improved.

Shooting can be improved but it's extremely rare to go from bad to good. He can be serviceable.

 

[jdubs30]

I think he'll be better in NBA. He won't be the vocal point of the defense so it'll be easier for him to penetrate and find open scorers. If he can develop a consistent jumpshot, he'll be an All-Star at some point.

 

[Cuse'91]

MCW may initially face what Rajon Rondo went through early in his career... I.e. left wide open until he can prove some semblance of an outside shot. Rondo hit those wide open shots and MCW will have to do the same. Otherwise, his driving and passing skills will be irrelevant...

 

[jdubs30]

MCW may initially face what Rajon Rondo went through early in his career... I.e. left wide open until he can prove some semblance of an outside shot. Rondo hit those wide open shots and MCW will have to do the same. Otherwise, his driving and passing skills will be irrelevant...

I don't know about that...

 

[JeffCuse]

I guess I will be negative nelly here...

Honestly, and this is not a knock on him coming out because he made the absolute right choice given the draft this year and some of the awful things that his family went through, I think he's a 2-3 year NBA guy who ultimately ends up in Europe. I just don't see his game translating to an elite, or even average NBA player. I felt MUCH stronger about the chances of Jonny Flynn developing into an average to above average talent than MCW.

I think he has the raw tools that MAY allow him to become a good NBA player...and I hope I am wrong...but if you are asking me my honest, unbiased opinion, I see a short NBA career followed by Europe.

 

[anomander]

Shooting can be improved but it's extremely rare to go from bad to good. He can be serviceable.

Jason Kidd comes to mind. If he wants to work on it he can get it to a point where he can keeps opponents honest.

I think he will be a better pro then college player. Rules are skewed to favor the offense. The lane will be much more open, and game plans won't be made to stop him. His game is better suited for the NBA. Plus, just how many point guards are considered very good shooters? Jason Hart made a nice living because he was a lock down defender, MCW is also a great defender, and brings so much more to the court. He will have a nice career.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I guess I will be negative nelly here...

Honestly, and this is not a knock on him coming out because he made the absolute right choice given the draft this year and some of the awful things that his family went through, I think he's a 2-3 year NBA guy who ultimately ends up in Europe. I just don't see his game translating to an elite, or even average NBA player. I felt MUCH stronger about the chances of Jonny Flynn developing into an average to above average talent than MCW.

I think he has the raw tools that MAY allow him to become a good NBA player...and I hope I am wrong...but if you are asking me my honest, unbiased opinion, I see a short NBA career followed by Europe.

I agree with this. Also, a poster above mentioned Rondo. Rondo would leave MCW in the dust in terms of speed. I watch lots of Cavs games and he isn't as quick as Livingston, who he is compared to. He obviously made the right decision but I see more Europe than NBA down the road for him. Nothing wrong with that. I also think he will struggle in M2M D.

 

[moqui]

he's not being drafted for his shooting or his defense, he is being drafted for his point guard skills, which are always in demand in the NBA.

If he can stay injury free, direct an offense without looking for his own shot, and competently execute the pick and roll he can stay in the league for 10 years or more. If you can do those three things, teams will overlook your inability to defend (see Blake, Steve) and up-and-down three point shooting (see Ridnour, Luke).

 

[orangecuse]

I agree with this. Also, a poster above mentioned Rondo. Rondo would leave MCW in the dust in terms of speed. I watch lots of Cavs games and he isn't as quick as Livingston, who he is compared to. He obviously made the right decision but I see more Europe than NBA down the road for him. Nothing wrong with that. I also think he will struggle in M2M D.

I lean towards this sentiment as well...time will tell...

 

[4evaOrange]

May struggle first couple years, maybe not. But I can see him putting up something like 10 and 7 in a rookie season.
Or he could struggle bad and be in the D league for a long time.

It's more or less the team he lands on. Just don't let him land on the Timberwolves!!!

 

[Gabjon]

I think he will excel in the NBA. There is no hand checking in the League and more space in the lane because of all of the shooting on the floor. These are two things that will help his game. He is not going to be scoring in the league in his first season like Dion was able to do, but get in the lane and feed his shooters? He will do that from day one.

 

[McNabb2Brominski]

He reminds me of Shaun Livingston. Big, lengthy pg, cant really shoot. Will have to use his size/height to his advantage big time if he wants to do anything in the league.

 

[Jeremy L.]

I think he has the potential to be a top 10 point guard. But I think he will just end up being a role player, maybe a 6th man that can get you 8 ppg and about 4 assists

 

[ORRange]

He will be fine in the league. Has the potential to be real good for a long time but will have to improve in a couple areas (that have been discussed at length). But the hidden gem in his game is his ability to rebound in traffic. Unreal assest for a point guard. Guards that leak out must face the consequences.

 

[anomander]

he's not being drafted for his shooting or his defense, he is being drafted for his point guard skills, which are always in demand in the NBA.

If he can stay injury free, direct an offense without looking for his own shot, and competently execute the pick and roll he can stay in the league for 10 years or more. If you can do those three things, teams will overlook your inability to defend (see Blake, Steve) and up-and-down three point shooting (see Ridnour, Luke).

He is also being drafted on potential which is arguably the highest in the whole draft. Sure he may be a bust, but there is also a good chance he is a perennial all star. Not many prospects in this class have the ability to say that.

 

[Madbiker]

MCW's success in the NBA will be directly related to how much and how quickly he can improve his outside shooting. He has the PG skills to run an offense and get the ball to scorers in the right places. His ability to get to the rim will be dependent on his making defenders have to respect his mid range shot. He will struggle until he can do that. Reminds me of Rondo but he isn't as quick. Though he is quick enough to be successful if he can develop a shot.

 

[Hoov50]

I won't even try to predict what will happen in the future, with the exception of comparing him to the last SU point guard drafted, but I will share my "expert" opinion:

Positives:
Tall, even for an NBA point guard
Sees the court very well
Delivers accurate passes
Can finish off balance shots in the lane
Most of the time understands what he needs to do to to help his team
Can put moves on defenders

Negatives:
Leaves his feet without having a plan
Average jump shot
Struggles against close, in your face defenders
Seems to lack the quick burst needed after making a move
Occasionally forces passes or shots

I think the positives heavily outweigh the negatives, but he will definitely be drafted based on potential with the drafting team realizing there are areas of his game that need to be worked on.

I think he can be more successful than Jonny Flynn simply because MCW doesn't rely so heavily on athleticism. Flynn's game was predicated on being a better athlete than the opposition, which is a mismatch that rarely occurs in the NBA. MCW's game doesn't rely as heavily on athleticism.

 

[IthacaMatt]

MCW's success in the NBA will be directly related to how much and how quickly he can improve his outside shooting. He has the PG skills to run an offense and get the ball to scorers in the right places. His ability to get to the rim will be dependent on his making defenders have to respect his mid range shot. He will struggle until he can do that. Reminds me of Rondo but he isn't as quick. Though he is quick enough to be successful if he can develop a shot.

He needs to tighten his handle against NBA guards. He's too loose with the ball when you pressure him, IMO.

 

[anomander]

He needs to tighten his handle against NBA guards. He's too loose with the ball when you pressure him, IMO.

nba doesn't press full court, and rarely plays aggressive half court defense. it's more stay in front of your man and lock him down.

 

[alphaorange]

Career journeyman. I see him as a backup. To begin, he'll start based on draft position, but I just don't think he has the fundamentals, strength of mind and the physicality to be a big time player in the league. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[oddo033]

http://theknicksblog.com/knicks/kni...s-and-other-portsmouth-invitational-thoughts/

They will not have a high enough pick..they do enjoy grabbing 2nd rounders though so I can see James in a Knick uniform!