The
Lacrosse Reference analysis of the game from today's free Expected Goals newsletter:
[My comment: Wild 4th qtr reflected in the Win Probability chart]
Syracuse pulled off a thrilling 19-18 victory over Princeton in the NCAA quarterfinals, securing their spot in Championship Weekend. This tightly contested game saw the Orange claw back from a 3-goal deficit, overcoming a mere 24% win probability at one point in the second half. It was a testament to their resilience and ability to perform under pressure.
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Joey Spallina emerged as the standout player for Syracuse, delivering a remarkable performance both as a scorer and a playmaker. He netted 4 unassisted goals on 10 shots and added 4 assists, all without committing a single turnover. This efficient outing placed him in the 94th percentile for
individual player efficiency, a significant uptick from his season average in the 80th percentile.
Syracuse's defense had a mixed outing against Princeton. While they excelled at limiting the Tigers to just 0.74 shots per possession, indicating strong control over shot volume, their overall defensive efficiency was surprisingly low, sitting in the 5th percentile. This suggests that while they managed to reduce shot opportunities, Princeton was highly effective at converting the chances they did get.
On offense, Syracuse's
shooting efficiency was outstanding, achieving a 53.5% rate adjusted for Princeton's defensive capabilities, placing them in the top percentile. This stellar performance is part of a broader upward trend, as their shooting efficiency has improved to 46.2% over their last four games, also in the 98th percentile. This contributed to an overall offensive efficiency of 52%, marking one of their best performances this season.
To sum it up, Syracuse's win was all about a great offensive game and a key defensive effort that kept Princeton at bay. Heading into Championship Weekend, they're bringing the energy from these better performances on both offense and defense.