Princeton Gameday... | Syracusefan.com

Princeton Gameday...

OrangeXtreme

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Syracuse at Princeton
Friday, February 27, 2026 | 4:00 p.m.

Streaming: ESPN+
Cody Crusciel, Alex Schoen

Radio: TK99 (99.5 FM) / WAER (88.3 FM)
Tim Leonard, Kyle Fetterly

 
LACROSSE REFERENCE Preview
via free Expected Goals Email Feb 27, 2026

Preview: Princeton vs Syracuse

[td]LaxElo sees this as a slight lean toward Princeton despite Syracuse's higher national profile. Based on the current ratings (Princeton 10th, Syracuse 4th), if these teams played 100 times, we would expect Syracuse to win 44 of those games, once we account for Princeton's home-field bump. That framing underscores how thin the margin is here: both outcomes are very much in play.

From a matchup standpoint, though, most of the underlying numbers tilt toward Syracuse.

On the defensive end, Syracuse brings one of the country's elite units. They rank 2nd in opponent‑adjusted defensive efficiency, meaning they have done a better job than almost anyone at limiting high‑quality looks after accounting for the strength of their schedule. Princeton's offense, by contrast, sits 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency. That is a solid profile, but it suggests the Tigers are more “good” than “overwhelming,” and they will be facing a group that has consistently pushed opposing offenses out of their comfort zones. In practical terms, Princeton probably cannot count on a shootout where they simply outscore Syracuse; they will need to be sharp in shot selection and extra‑man chances to keep pace.

Flipping the field doesn’t help Princeton much. Syracuse’s offense ranks 3rd in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, while Princeton’s defense is 18th. Both Tiger units are solid, but on both sides the Orange are a bit more efficient once you adjust for schedule. That combo—top-3 offense and top-2 defense—helps explain why the numbers see Syracuse as the more complete team, even if LaxElo still leaves the door open for a Princeton win.

The possession game is where the gap looks most stark. After adjusting for opponent quality, Syracuse is averaging +2.1 more offensive possessions than their opponents, 32nd nationally. Princeton, on the other hand, sits at a ‑5.1 possession margin, 62nd nationally. Over a full game, that kind of seven‑possession swing between typical profiles can be decisive, especially when the more efficient team is also the one gaining the extra chances.

A deeper look at faceoffs helps explain that edge. Syracuse's John Mullen is rated 21st in the Faceoff Elo rankings, while Princeton's Andrew McMeekin is 25th. That is not a massive gap, but combined with the broader possession‑margin numbers, it suggests Syracuse is slightly more likely to generate incremental advantages at the stripe and then convert those into additional offensive trips. If Princeton cannot at least play Mullen to a draw over the course of the game, they will be asking their defense to absorb a heavy workload against a top‑tier offense.

Overall, the numbers point the same way: Syracuse rates higher on offense and defense and does a better job picking up extra possessions. LaxElo still leans a bit toward Princeton because of home field, and because in a single game those edges don’t always show up on the scoreboard. If Princeton can trim the possession gap—through faceoffs, riding pressure, or fewer turnovers—they have enough talent to make that slight Elo edge count. If not, Syracuse’s efficiency and extra volume give the Orange a clear path to control the game.
[/td]
 
LACROSSE REFERENCE Weekend Game Stats Preview
via free Expected Goals Email Feb 27, 2026

#3: Princeton vs Syracuse​

Fri, Feb 27 @ 4pm ET

Princeton Summary​

Record: 1 - 1
LaxElo Rank: 10th
LaxElo Movement (this season): -25 rating points
Offense: 34.2% efficiency (16th nationally)
Defense: 25.5% efficiency (18th nationally)
Faceoffs: 50.1% win rate (44th nationally)
Highest Usage: Tucker Wade (10.0% play share)
Most Efficient: Peter Buonanno (1.97 usage adjusted EGA; 6.7% play share)
Quarterback: Nate Kabiri (18% of the team's assists)
Finisher: Tucker Wade (21% of the team's shots)
Most Productive: Nate Kabiri (3 devittes)
Vacuum: Hunter Spiess (11% of the team's ground balls)
Disruptor: Hunter Spiess (4 total caused turnovers)
FOGO: Andrew McMeekin (39% faceoff win rate)
Goalie: Ryan Croddick (43% save percentage)


Syracuse Summary​

Record: 3 - 1
LaxElo Rank: 4th
LaxElo Movement (this season): +31 rating points
Offense: 41.4% efficiency (3rd nationally)
Defense: 18.2% efficiency (2nd nationally)
Faceoffs: 59.2% win rate (14th nationally)
Highest Usage: Joey Spallina (15.1% play share)
Most Efficient: Wyatt Hottle (2.60 usage adjusted EGA; 4.6% play share)
Quarterback: Joey Spallina (28% of the team's assists)
Finisher: Joey Spallina (25% of the team's shots)
Most Productive: Joey Spallina (15 devittes)
Vacuum: Riley Figueiras (9% of the team's ground balls)
Disruptor: Vincent Bolognino (4 total caused turnovers)
FOGO: John Mullen (60% faceoff win rate)
Goalie: Jimmy McCool (59% save percentage)
 
What I’d like to see today (still learning the game, so take it for what it’s worth):
  • Better wing play. It feels like we’re not getting much impact there, especially in key transition moments.
  • Get Hottle more involved. Things seem to be clicking for him this year, and I’d love to see that momentum leaned into.
  • Move McCarthy to SSDM full-time. If he wants a few offensive runs, sure but he feels more valuable stabilizing that matchup consistently.
  • Quicker defensive adjustments. It felt like we waited until the 4th quarter to address Harvard’s middies blowing by our SSDMs. A faster tweak there might’ve changed the tone of the game.
  • McCool making timely saves. The 60% season number looks good, but the last two games (55% and 50%) tell a different story. He had similar rough outings against Harvard and Maryland last year. Need a couple of momentum saves in big spots.
  • Leo at attack. I think that’s where he’s most dangerous. Him and Bear both need to bump up production.

That's what I got
 
Does anyone know when ESPN+ will be included with YouTube TV? I wish this was on accnx
The last mention I saw was not until the Fall. FYI - Comcast hasn't gotten it yet either; I think they will shortly. I do know that DirecTV Satellite has it. I believe Spectrum does also.
 
Last edited:
What I’d like to see today (still learning the game, so take it for what it’s worth):
  • Better wing play. It feels like we’re not getting much impact there, especially in key transition moments.
  • Get Hottle more involved. Things seem to be clicking for him this year, and I’d love to see that momentum leaned into.
  • Move McCarthy to SSDM full-time. If he wants a few offensive runs, sure but he feels more valuable stabilizing that matchup consistently.
  • Quicker defensive adjustments. It felt like we waited until the 4th quarter to address Harvard’s middies blowing by our SSDMs. A faster tweak there might’ve changed the tone of the game.
  • McCool making timely saves. The 60% season number looks good, but the last two games (55% and 50%) tell a different story. He had similar rough outings against Harvard and Maryland last year. Need a couple of momentum saves in big spots.
  • Leo at attack. I think that’s where he’s most dangerous. Him and Bear both need to bump up production.

That's what I got
Definitely agree on wing play. Would like to see us try some new faces there. Some guys like Hottle seem too undersized on the wing.
 
LACROSSE REFERENCE Preview
via free Expected Goals Email Feb 27, 2026


Preview: Princeton vs Syracuse


[td]LaxElo sees this as a slight lean toward Princeton despite Syracuse's higher national profile. Based on the current ratings (Princeton 10th, Syracuse 4th), if these teams played 100 times, we would expect Syracuse to win 44 of those games, once we account for Princeton's home-field bump. That framing underscores how thin the margin is here: both outcomes are very much in play.

From a matchup standpoint, though, most of the underlying numbers tilt toward Syracuse.

On the defensive end, Syracuse brings one of the country's elite units. They rank 2nd in opponent‑adjusted defensive efficiency, meaning they have done a better job than almost anyone at limiting high‑quality looks after accounting for the strength of their schedule. Princeton's offense, by contrast, sits 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency. That is a solid profile, but it suggests the Tigers are more “good” than “overwhelming,” and they will be facing a group that has consistently pushed opposing offenses out of their comfort zones. In practical terms, Princeton probably cannot count on a shootout where they simply outscore Syracuse; they will need to be sharp in shot selection and extra‑man chances to keep pace.

Flipping the field doesn’t help Princeton much. Syracuse’s offense ranks 3rd in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, while Princeton’s defense is 18th. Both Tiger units are solid, but on both sides the Orange are a bit more efficient once you adjust for schedule. That combo—top-3 offense and top-2 defense—helps explain why the numbers see Syracuse as the more complete team, even if LaxElo still leaves the door open for a Princeton win.

The possession game is where the gap looks most stark. After adjusting for opponent quality, Syracuse is averaging +2.1 more offensive possessions than their opponents, 32nd nationally. Princeton, on the other hand, sits at a ‑5.1 possession margin, 62nd nationally. Over a full game, that kind of seven‑possession swing between typical profiles can be decisive, especially when the more efficient team is also the one gaining the extra chances.

A deeper look at faceoffs helps explain that edge. Syracuse's John Mullen is rated 21st in the Faceoff Elo rankings, while Princeton's Andrew McMeekin is 25th. That is not a massive gap, but combined with the broader possession‑margin numbers, it suggests Syracuse is slightly more likely to generate incremental advantages at the stripe and then convert those into additional offensive trips. If Princeton cannot at least play Mullen to a draw over the course of the game, they will be asking their defense to absorb a heavy workload against a top‑tier offense.

Overall, the numbers point the same way: Syracuse rates higher on offense and defense and does a better job picking up extra possessions. LaxElo still leans a bit toward Princeton because of home field, and because in a single game those edges don’t always show up on the scoreboard. If Princeton can trim the possession gap—through faceoffs, riding pressure, or fewer turnovers—they have enough talent to make that slight Elo edge count. If not, Syracuse’s efficiency and extra volume give the Orange a clear path to control the game.
[/td]

Interesting and detailed breakdown, Cuse better in more categories then I initially anticipated. Still from a vibes standpoint something about this matchup I just don't like. I worry a lot about SU trying to slow down that Princeton midfield. Wish the schedule was flip flopped and we had Penn today and Princeton Sunday.

Big day for the Gait ultra difficult schedule call.
 
Alex Schoen on the call for ESPN+. Played in 6 games as a 5’7”, 165 lb. true freshman walk-on for SU football in 2013. Transfers to Rutgers, gives up football, & later goes 12-23 on faceoffs vs Danny Varello to help them upset SU in 2018.
 
Interesting and detailed breakdown, Cuse better in more categories then I initially anticipated. Still from a vibes standpoint something about this matchup I just don't like. I worry a lot about SU trying to slow down that Princeton midfield. Wish the schedule was flip flopped and we had Penn today and Princeton Sunday.

Big day for the Gait ultra difficult schedule call.
Agree, but I wonder how much his Princeton's stats are affected by their disasterous first quarter against Penn St. in their opening game.
 
I keep forgetting this game is today.

I'm not sure what to expect. This one might just come down to who has the ball more. I don't think either defense is built to stop the other. I like the idea of having two alpha defenders that the Tigers do not have, but that might not be enough to quell Princeton of offense.

I think it's really important that Mullen have a good game - the Princeton FOGO hasn't had a good start to the year, though he has played two tough groups in Penn State and Maryland. Still he can be inconsistent. Mullen has struggled a bit recently, the best way to stop the Princeton offense is to keep the ball away from them.

Curious how the offense looks today. I am assuming that they play Leo and Anderson at attack with Thomson at midfield. I don't really love two lefties at attack, but I think the team looks best with Leo at attack. Also hoping that Hottle is bumped to midfield, that really gives a defense a hard time to try and decide who to pole. Hopefully the second line middies mature and grow throughout the season.

McCarthy just has to be moved to SSDM, it seems like the most obvious thing in the world. Gotta hope that unit as a whole shows serious improvement this weekend.

Go 'Cuse.
 
I keep forgetting this game is today.

I'm not sure what to expect. This one might just come down to who has the ball more. I don't think either defense is built to stop the other. I like the idea of having two alpha defenders that the Tigers do not have, but that might not be enough to quell Princeton of offense.

I think it's really important that Mullen have a good game - the Princeton FOGO hasn't had a good start to the year, though he has played two tough groups in Penn State and Maryland. Still he can be inconsistent. Mullen has struggled a bit recently, the best way to stop the Princeton offense is to keep the ball away from them.

Curious how the offense looks today. I am assuming that they play Leo and Anderson at attack with Thomson at midfield. I don't really love two lefties at attack, but I think the team looks best with Leo at attack. Also hoping that Hottle is bumped to midfield, that really gives a defense a hard time to try and decide who to pole. Hopefully the second line middies mature and grow throughout the season.

McCarthy just has to be moved to SSDM, it seems like the most obvious thing in the world. Gotta hope that unit as a whole shows serious improvement this weekend.

Go 'Cuse.
With Rawson and Kraftson (who I thought looked good in his limited runs against St. Joes) as options at middie, I agree the move with McCarthy has to happen now. If he gets some occasional runs as a two way guy that is fine, but we need the speed of McCarthy at ssdm more than we do at middie right now.
 
I keep forgetting this game is today.

I'm not sure what to expect. This one might just come down to who has the ball more. I don't think either defense is built to stop the other. I like the idea of having two alpha defenders that the Tigers do not have, but that might not be enough to quell Princeton of offense.

I think it's really important that Mullen have a good game - the Princeton FOGO hasn't had a good start to the year, though he has played two tough groups in Penn State and Maryland. Still he can be inconsistent. Mullen has struggled a bit recently, the best way to stop the Princeton offense is to keep the ball away from them.

Curious how the offense looks today. I am assuming that they play Leo and Anderson at attack with Thomson at midfield. I don't really love two lefties at attack, but I think the team looks best with Leo at attack. Also hoping that Hottle is bumped to midfield, that really gives a defense a hard time to try and decide who to pole. Hopefully the second line middies mature and grow throughout the season.

McCarthy just has to be moved to SSDM, it seems like the most obvious thing in the world. Gotta hope that unit as a whole shows serious improvement this weekend.

Go 'Cuse.
just my 2 shillings, @ some point i think march is gonna figure out 2 guys with the same skillsets from the same spots on the field isn't going to result in 2x the production.

over the season, they need/want to replace hiltz' 70+ pts (and english, too) and i just don't see how that can happen that way.

they have one of the top finishers in the game. anderson and likely leo are not ++ players at attack, to date at least. and leo is a 45-50 pt 1st teamer at midfield. anderson... they (or he) don't seem willing to give anything but spot iso's. & thomson is a vortex that keeps teams from sliding off of him, think he needs to be on the field.

and any combination of rhoa, leo/anderson, hottle on a 1st line would give a d coordinator migraines. we shall see.
 
just my 2 shillings, @ some point i think march is gonna figure out 2 guys with the same skillsets from the same spots on the field isn't going to result in 2x the production.

over the season, they need/want to replace hiltz' 70+ pts (and english, too) and i just don't see how that can happen that way.

they have one of the top finishers in the game. anderson and likely leo are not ++ players at attack, to date at least. and leo is a 45-50 pt 1st teamer at midfield. anderson... they (or he) don't seem willing to give anything but spot iso's. & thomson is a vortex that keeps teams from sliding off of him, think he needs to be on the field.

and any combination of rhoa, leo/anderson, hottle on a 1st line would give a d coordinator migraines. we shall see.
If teams want to put a short stick on Thomson they will pay the price by him setting picks for Spallina and getting him on the short stick. That is how we got the goal to go ahead 12-10, and it created other quality looks earlier in the game as well. He is the best in the business at creating looks or matchup switches through picks.
 

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