Projecting Syracuse's/Shafer's future

[Quazzum69]

The next four games are probably the most crucial of Shafer's career as Syracuse's head coach: a new AD, a restless fanbase, ... ESPN commentators openly mocking him on national TV. If he wins the next four, he obviously will keep his job but how likely is that?

I looked up some computer ratings systems' estimated probability of Syracuse winning each of the next four games (based on current results - some will change) then averaged several systems' probabilities to get 23% we beat Louisville, 7% we beat Clemson, 23% we beat NCSt, and 55% (whoo hoo!) we beat BC. If you consider all 16 possible outcomes (2^4), the remainder of the season breaks down as follows:

Win 0: 24.8%
Wins 1: 47.0%
Win 2: 23.7%
Win 3: 4.2%
Win 4: 0.2%

The good news: there's 75% chance we win at least one more game. The bad: less than 5% chance we get to 0.500 or a bowl game. So, what does this mean for Shafer?

I imagine that Coyle's cutoff (for firing this year) is 3 wins. The record will not have improved from last year and if Shafer cannot beat at least one of UL, NCSt, or BC (i.e., our football "peers") then he will get canned. Add to that the general buffoonery and he is not in great shape. Shafer has a 75% of keeping his job by my estimation barring some unforeseen improvement.

Given that Shafer gets that next win and is not fired (if Coyle keeps him with only 4 wins), how many wins does he need in 2016 to stay off the hot seat? I suspect that 6 wins is the minimum - three consecutive years of bad, bowl-less football (when 80% of teams get in bowl games each year) should be unacceptable. Then, what is the probability that they get to 6 wins if he's not fired?


P.S. Shafer doesn't strike me as some mastermind genius whose plan takes years to incubate so you can stop right there with your Mac or Cutcliffe or Beamer BS.

 

[TexanMark]

isn't it just a 47% chance to win 1 more game?

 

[TheCusian]

The next four games are probably the most crucial of Shafer's career as Syracuse's head coach: a new AD, a restless fanbase, ... ESPN commentators openly mocking him on national TV. If he wins the next four, he obviously will keep his job but how likely is that? I looked up some computer ratings systems' estimated probability of Syracuse winning each of the next four games (based on current results - some will change) then averaged several systems' probabilities to get 23% we beat Louisville, 7% we beat Clemson, 23% we beat NCSt, and 55% (whoo hoo!) we beat BC. If you consider all 16 possible outcomes (2^4), the remainder of the season breaks down as follows: Win 0: 24.8% Wins 1: 47.0% Win 2: 23.7% Win 3: 4.2% Win 4: 0.2% The good news: there's 75% chance we win at least one more game. The bad: less than 5% chance we get to 0.500 or a bowl game. So, what does this mean for Shafer? I imagine that Coyle's cutoff (for firing this year) is 3 wins. The record will not have improved from last year and if Shafer cannot beat at least one of UL, NCSt, or BC (i.e., our football "peers") then he will get canned. Add to that the general buffoonery and he is not in great shape. Shafer has a 75% of keeping his job by my estimation barring some unforeseen improvement. Given that Shafer gets that next win and is not fired (if Coyle keeps him with only 4 wins), how many wins does he need in 2016 to stay off the hot seat? I suspect that 6 wins is the minimum - three consecutive years of bad, bowl-less football (when 80% of teams get in bowl games each year) should be unacceptable. Then, what is the probability that they get to 6 wins if he's not fired? P.S. Shafer doesn't strike me as some mastermind genius whose plan takes years to incubate so you can stop right there with your Mac or Cutcliffe or Beamer BS.

No ones claiming he's a mastermind. But if you chalk up the first two years to a bad decision in Mcit - and that Lester/Dungey will get better and this years D issues are more blip then trend - then it's not hard to imagine getting more time with just 1-2 wins.

It really depends on what Coyle thinks.

 

[orange79]

isn't it just a 47% chance to win 1 more game?

He said "at least one more game".

Unless I am misunderstanding your question...

 

[SoBristol]

isn't it just a 47% chance to win 1 more game?

No, it is additive. 55% chance just versus BC, plus add the slim chances against each of the other 3.

It projects to pick-em against BC, puncher's chance against NC St, snowball's chances against Louisville and Clemson. So, that would be two snowballs, a puncher, and a pick-em. If that first snowball survives, the second snowball has a better chance.

 

[TexanMark]

Can I trade my snowball tix for puncher Tix?

 

[Moontan]

Can I trade my snowball tix for puncher Tix?

So now we've gone from a puncher's chance to a snowball's chance in hell?