punting from LOU 40 down 19-6 win probabilities

[Millhouse]

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/4thdncalc1.php

go for it, you have a win probability of 9%

punt, you have a win probability of 5%

this uses NFL data but it's close enough

nice going #hardhead

 

[upperdeck]

didnt we end up getting a turnover anyway and getting the ball right back at the same spot? I thought with the lack of energy going for it was the call, but lou was doing nothing on offense so why give them a short field?

I dont think the NFL stats equate in any way to the way SU moves the ball. even a bad NFL offense has a qb/wr set way better and can usually function.

 

[Millhouse]

didnt we end up getting a turnover anyway and getting the ball right back at the same spot? I thought with the lack of energy going for it was the call, but lou was doing nothing on offense so why give them a short field?

I dont think the NFL stats equate in any way to the way SU moves the ball. even a bad NFL offense has a qb/wr set way better and can usually function.

louisville ended up punting a couple minutes later

you're losing. you need to score. worrying about short fields is really stupid when everything has to go right to have a chance

 

[GoSU96]

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/4thdncalc1.php

go for it, you have a win probability of 9%

punt, you have a win probability of 5%

this uses NFL data but it's close enough

nice going #hardhead

The third down call was the killer.

 

[Millhouse]

The third down call was the killer.

both sucked. if they picked up 2 yards, it wouldn't have changed the WP much

they have no foresight at all. it doesn't have to be a passing down.

 

[Delmar]

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/4thdncalc1.php

go for it, you have a win probability of 9%

punt, you have a win probability of 5%

this uses NFL data but it's close enough

nice going #hardhead

This happened with Notre Dame. We kept running the clock when we should have been taking a shot at the end zone if we had any intentions of winning the game, AND as Herman Edwards says, ...

 

[PhatOrange]

The third down call was the killer.

remind me, what was the call/scenario?

 

[Millhouse]

remind me, what was the call/scenario?

3rd and 4 incomplete pass, empty backfield i think

 

[GoSU96]

remind me, what was the call/scenario?

They went empty with AAM in going in motion. The pass ended up going to him as there was early pressure.

 

[Millhouse]

They went empty with AAM in going in motion. The pass ended up going to him as there was early pressure.

lol i forgot about the AAM part