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[QUOTE="Waltdods, post: 2423169, member: 2932"]
I think this (while logical) is actually false.  Studies seem to show the preseason polls being surprisingly predictive,.  Here's a couple articles that make this point, one about football and one about basketball.  I think the intuition is that in-season people over-react too much to small sample-size results, and that in the longer run talent and coaching are powerful drivers of results (and the preseason polls do a pretty good job of picking up talent and coaching).  Not to say they're flawless, obviously, just that it's wrong to say early polls are useless or that they're even necessarily worth less than polls at the end of the year.

[URL="https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/10/9295405/college-football-preseason-polls-accuracy"]The surprising truth about preseason polls[/URL]

[URL="https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/in-n-c-a-a-tournament-overachievers-often-disappoint/?_r=0"]In N.C.A.A. Tournament, Overachievers Often Disappoint[/URL]
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