Ranked ? | Syracusefan.com

Ranked ?

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Not that it matters but it is nice to see us Ranked?

When exactly do the polls come out ?
 
Ranked would be nice, but I certainly don't see it this week. Hopefully we can make the list by the end of January.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
We won’t be ranked unless we win out in the OOC and beat VPI at home New Years.
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I think we would be on the cusp if we beat Buffalo and the Bonnie's but not quite there yet. I could see us being very close in the coaches poll, where we seem to be getting more respect.
 
We were basically #35 in last week’s poll. No chance we move ahead of 10 teams based on a road win against a largely unproven, unchallenged Gtown team.
 
We were #43 in the AP last week in terms of votes, but after #28 it was highly dispersed. I can certainly seeing us get more votes, but others can certainly pick other teams that were in the #29-#43 group. We won at Georgetown... a good win, but nothing great either that makes you jump others that were well in front of you.

Teams #26-28, had clearly separated themselves from #29-43 before this week. They will get dibs on the first spots that open in the AP Top 25.
#26 Creighton won -- they will climb in, deserved or not
#27 Oklahoma won at Wichita St -- they are jumping in easily.
#28 Texas lost, so they are out of discussion, and we will jump them,

Who falls out of the top 25:
Florida should and with 4 losses we should jump them,
#20 -Tennessee might after losing to a top 10 team at home. (But we are not jumping them)
#19 - Florida St might after losing to Oklahoma St (But we are not jumping them)
#18 - Notre Dame might after losing to Indiana at home (But we are not jumping them)
#15 - Seton Hall might after losing to Rutgers (But we are not jumping them)

So Creighton and Oklahoma take two of the teams that fall out. I think the other 3 teams above might come in at 26, 27, 28.

Louisville and Arkansas had 19 and 17 points, compared to our 2 and won on neutral courts. They probably stay ahead of us. Around #30 will be our peak. (My guess is #33) No chance at the top 25.
 
jncuse said:
We were #43 in the AP last week in terms of votes, but after #28 it was highly dispersed. I can certainly seeing us get more votes, but others can certainly pick other teams that were in the #29-#43 group. We won at Georgetown... a good win, but nothing great either that makes you jump others that were well in front of you.

Teams #26-28, had clearly separated themselves from #29-43 before this week. They will get dibs on the first spots that open in the AP Top 25.
#26 Creighton won -- they will climb in, deserved or not
#27 Oklahoma won at Wichita St -- they are jumping in easily.
#28 Texas lost, so they are out of discussion, and we will jump them,

Who falls out of the top 25:
Florida should and with 4 losses we should jump them,
#20 -Tennessee might after losing to a top 10 team at home. (But we are not jumping them)
#19 - Florida St might after losing to Oklahoma St (But we are not jumping them)
#18 - Notre Dame might after losing to Indiana at home (But we are not jumping them)
#15 - Seton Hall might after losing to Rutgers (But we are not jumping them)

So Creighton and Oklahoma take two of the teams that fall out. I think the other 3 teams above might come in at 26, 27, 28.

Louisville and Arkansas had 19 and 17 points, compared to our 2 and won on neutral courts. They probably stay ahead of us. Around #30 will be our peak. (My guess is #33) No chance at the top 25.
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If you loose to Rutgers how can you remain ranked
 
Flacusian said:
Currently 11th in ESPN RPI... seeing us sneak into the top 25 is not out of the question
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I suspect very few if any are looking at current RPI to rank the top 25. I suspect a few more, but hardly the majority, look at KenPom, BPI or Sagarin but we are not close to top 25 in those either (39,52 and 62). The chance of getting in the AP top 25 simply based on how it has always worked is 0.0001%.
 
kcsu said:
If you loose to Rutgers how can you remain ranked
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I'm just basing it on how the AP rank typically moves, not what I would do. I think they will be in the #24-#28 range. Teams at #15 don't just fall out of view after a road loss to a 10-3 team.
 
This conversation scratches the surface of how polls work and why it's difficult to move into the Top 25 once the season starts.

A team's starting point is based upon a guess or a projection as to how good a team is going to be based on what they did last year, who they still have on the roster and a really wild-assed guess on how much they are going to be helped by incoming talent.

Once a team is put at say, #20, they have to lose games to drop down. And because almost everyone's OOC schedule is chocked full of gimme games, that doesn't happen all that frequently.

Coming from #35 to #20 takes a herculean effort.

At the end of the year, the Top 25 will approximate which are the best 25 teams. Early in the season, we know it does not. It's near meaningless.
 
Townie72 said:
This conversation scratches the surface of how polls work and why it's difficult to move into the Top 25 once the season starts.

A team's starting point is based upon a guess or a projection as to how good a team is going to be based on what they did last year, who they still have on the roster and a really wild-assed guess on how much they are going to be helped by incoming talent.

Once a team is put at say, #20, they have to lose games to drop down. And because almost everyone's OOC schedule is chocked full of gimme games, that doesn't happen all that frequently.

Coming from #35 to #20 takes a herculean effort.

At the end of the year, the Top 25 will approximate which are the best 25 teams. Early in the season, we know it does not. It's near meaningless.
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Arizona State was unranked to start the year and is in the top 5 now.
You move up when you win quality games.
If we had beaten Kansas we would be ranked now.
You can’t move up when your unranked unless you beat ranked teams.
We don’t deserve to be ranked yet.
 
Alsacs said:
Arizona State was unranked to start the year and is in the top 5 now.
You move up when you win quality games.
If we had beaten Kansas we would be ranked now.
You can’t move up when your unranked unless you beat ranked teams.
We don’t deserve to be ranked yet.
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How accurately does the current Top 25 reflect which are 2017-18's best 25 teams?
 
Townie72 said:
How accurately does the current Top 25 reflect which are 2017-18's best 25 teams?
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They are the top 25 of 60+ voters thru 12-18-17.
It’s subjective.
Our resume isn’t worthy of top 25 votes and we weren’t perceived strong enough to start the year to get the benefit of the doubt.
 
Alsacs said:
They are the top 25 of 60+ voters thru 12-18-17.
It’s subjective.
Our resume isn’t worthy of top 25 votes and we weren’t perceived strong enough to start the year to get the benefit of the doubt.
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You answered my question when you said "It's subjective" and that it based on the perception at the beginning of the year (pretty much without data)

Your starting point has a great deal to do with your ranking throughout the season, absent some upset wins. It's harder to move up the polls than to retain your position.
 
Townie72 said:
You answered my question when you said "It's subjective" and that it based on the perception at the beginning of the year (pretty much without data)

Your starting point has a great deal to do with your ranking throughout the season, absent some upset wins. It's harder to move up the polls than to retain your position.
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It helps a lot when you start ranked but if you lose you will drop out quickly.
Arizona was #2 and lost 3 times in a row and fell out completely.
Arizona State was unranked they beat Kansas, Kansas State, Xavier and Butler they are now #5.

If we had beaten Kansas we are ranked now.
We were unranked 2 years and won the battle for Atlantis and went up to 14 from unranked.
You can move up from unranked you just need quality wins.
Georgetown will get us more votes but it won’t get us ranked.
 
Alsacs said:
It helps a lot when you start ranked but if you lose you will drop out quickly.
Arizona was #2 and lost 3 times in a row and fell out completely.
Arizona State was unranked they beat Kansas, Kansas State, Xavier and Butler they are now #5.

If we had beaten Kansas we are ranked now.
We were unranked 2 years and won the battle for Atlantis and went up to 14 from unranked.
You can move up from unranked you just need quality wins.
Georgetown will get us more votes but it won’t get us ranked.
Expand...

In the absence of significant wins or losses (or lots of losses), you tend to stay where you are based upon the pre-season perception of the voters. That's why early polls are BS and that's why a comparison of the end of year polls (actually based on data) to the pre-season polls show that.
 
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