Re: SU's Go-To Guy -- an opinion. . .

[VaBeachOrFan]

I'm beginning to think SU not having a true Go-To Guy may not be a problem for this particular team. Melo may have been our Go-To Guy in the NC game, but it was Hak's block that saved it. This year's team is so deep and so balanced, anyone could break out in any given game.

But, more importantly, the team's identity is built on passing up the good shot for the better shot (love how Mookie passed up several shots because he wasn't in rhythm, even with 25,000 fans screaming for him to shoot -- and that's your 11th player showing good BBIQ!). With that mentality, everyone's always looking for the open player who has time to shoot in rhythm. That's money in the bank, so why try to force a pass to your designated Go-To-Guy when the other team knows that's where you're going? Setting up the best shot is better than forcing to set up the best player.

That said, however, I'm thinking Dion's the best candidate for wanting the ball in crunch time and delivering under pressure.-VBOF

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'm beginning to think SU not having a true Go-To Guy may not be a problem for this particular team. Melo may have been our Go-To Guy in the NC game, but it was Hak's block that saved it. This year's team is so deep and so balanced, anyone could break out in any given game.

But, more importantly, the team's identity is built on passing up the good shot for the better shot (love how Mookie passed up several shots because he wasn't in rhythm, even with 25,000 fans screaming for him to shoot -- and that's your 11th player showing good BBIQ!). With that mentality, everyone's always looking for the open player who has time to shoot in rhythm. That's money in the bank, so why try to force a pass to your designated Go-To-Guy when the other team knows that's where you're going? Setting up the best shot is better than forcing to set up the best player.

That said, however, I'm thinking Dion's the best candidate for wanting the ball in crunch time and delivering under pressure.-VBOF

I think it's a myth that we don't have a Go-To-Guy. His name is Kris Joseph. He's the one they look to for a bucket when we need a response. Dion I would consider a second Go-To-Guy.

 

[VaBeachOrFan]

According to the Coach's Show transcript, Tom in Pulaski asked if Coach would rather have a team with a star or a team with no stars like this one. JB: I’d rather have a lot of good players and one star- a star can be stopped.

That's my point. If your bread and butter is getting the ball to the open man with the best shot, and you play that way all season long, then that's your best play even at crunch time.-VBOF

 

[Cuseology]

A go to guy is not always the best talent but rather the guy who both wants the ball and who his teammates look for to have the ball when they need a play. I think all great teams have that guy. KJ is it for this team, although i think Scoop plays that role in some games. Dion is growing into it as well. The great thing about this team may be that the go to guy will change based on the game. Not sure i have ever seen that before on a team and not sure it works at crunch time, but we have a number of players that can take over a game, and who have the confidence of their teammates to do so. Unusual combination..

 

[jordoo]

We are in a great possition IMO. We are hard to stop in a situation were we need a bucket because you do not know who we are going for. We may not have a guy going off every night and being a dominant offensive force but we have guys who are willing and capable. Scoop , Kris, Brandon and Dion are all able to get their own shots as well as make jumpers. You can't leave any of them. James and CJ are also guys that must be defended, con't leave them to help. Fab may still become a force on the blocks as well, he has it in him he just needs to do it IMO.

 

[jekelish]

We may not have a traditional go-to guy, but we have four guys I feel pretty comfortable with taking a big shot (Dion, Kris, Scoop and Brandon, in that order).

 

[VaBeachOrFan]

Yeah, and the best thing about having Dion, Scoop or Brandon taking that last shot is you still have KJ, CJ and Fab ready to put back a miss or take a last-second dish. I like our chances. -VBOF

 

[moqui]

But, more importantly, the team's identity is built on passing up the good shot for the better shot (love how Mookie passed up several shots because he wasn't in rhythm, even with 25,000 fans screaming for him to shoot -- and that's your 11th player showing good BBIQ!). With that mentality, everyone's always looking for the open player who has time to shoot in rhythm. That's money in the bank, so why try to force a pass to your designated Go-To-Guy when the other team knows that's where you're going? Setting up the best shot is better than forcing to set up the best player.

Unfortunately, that is not the case.

Bilas made the observation about the 09-10 squad that "the go-to guy is the open man." That team set the Syracuse standard for unselfishness on both ends of the floor. This year's team is emulating that only on the defensive side of the floor.

On the offensive end, the assist rate is surprisingly low. I noted this yesterday in the "importance of transition"thread:

this team does not pass the ball as much as other recent editions. Right now, Syracuse ranks just 116th (edit: 113th after changes due to last night's games) in the nation in assist percentage, 55.8%. Last year, it was 60.5% and ranked 36th, the great 09-10 team was 7th in the nation at 64.6%. The assist rate may be down partially as a factor of the revved up transition game. After 14 games, 259 of 1124 points have come off the fast break - 23%. Compare that to 2009-10 when, again after 14 games, the Orange had tallied 237 fast break points out of 1212 total - 19.6%.

 

[longtimefan]

Unfortunately, that is not the case.

Bilas made the observation about the 09-10 squad that "the go-to guy is the open man." That team set the Syracuse standard for unselfishness on both ends of the floor. This year's team is emulating that only on the defensive side of the floor.

On the offensive end, the assist rate is surprisingly low. I noted this yesterday in the "importance of transition"thread:

Always take the assist rate with a grain of salt. There is, unfortunately, way too much subjectivity involved. I saw a piece on line a couple of weeks ago (can't remember where) concerning the validity of assist totals. The writer-researcher had reviewed tapes of more than a few games, and compared the play-by-play transcripts with what he was viewing. He found big differences from one home court to another. I seem to remember that Pitt was a major offender. He pointed out a couple of glaring instances where bogus assists were credited (probably to Woodall). In one case, at least two passes ensued between the assister's pass and the scoring shot; in another, the person credited with an assist did not even touch the ball on that possession.

 

[strumpfasaurus]

I think people overemphasize this necessity to have a "go to guy" to win the national championship. In the last 15 years aside from Kemba walker and Carmelo anthony I can not think of a team that won the NCAA championship that was built around one offensive player carrying their team to the championship.

 

[moqui]

Always take the assist rate with a grain of salt. There is, unfortunately, way too much subjectivity involved. I saw a piece on line a couple of weeks ago (can't remember where) concerning the validity of assist totals. The writer-researcher had reviewed tapes of more than a few games, and compared the play-by-play transcripts with what he was viewing. He found big differences from one home court to another. I seem to remember that Pitt was a major offender. He pointed out a couple of glaring instances where bogus assists were credited (probably to Woodall). In one case, at least two passes ensued between the assister's pass and the scoring shot; in another, the person credited with an assist did not even touch the ball on that possession.

that would be stronger a point if we were comparing different schools to one another (rather than different editions from the same school), but through 14 games you are basically comparing the same scorekeepers - in 2009-10, there had been 10 home games, 2 road games, and 2 games at MSG; last year's squad had 11 home games, 2 in Atlantic City and 1 at MSG; while this year where there have been 11 home games, 1 road game and 2 games at MSG. For all intents and purposes, you are basically comparing the SU scorekeeper to the SU scorekeeper, plus whoever did the MSG games was likely the same.

Through 14 games, the 09-10 squad had 295 assists on 461 field goals - a .640 percentage.
Through 14 games, the 10-11 squad had 248 assists on 390 field goals - a .636 percentage.
Through 14 games, the current squad has 237 assists on 423 field goals - a .560 percentage.

I will modify the implication of my original post - this does not mean the current squad is "more selfish;" if I spend more time with the data, I might find that the difference in offensive rebounding and transition scoring provides all the explanation.

 

[longtimefan]

that would be stronger a point if we were comparing different schools to one another (rather than different editions from the same school), but through 14 games you are basically comparing the same scorekeepers - in 2009-10, there had been 10 home games, 2 road games, and 2 games at MSG; last year's squad had 11 home games, 2 in Atlantic City and 1 at MSG; while this year where there have been 11 home games, 1 road game and 2 games at MSG. For all intents and purposes, you are basically comparing the SU scorekeeper to the SU scorekeeper, plus whoever did the MSG games was likely the same.

Through 14 games, the 09-10 squad had 295 assists on 461 field goals - a .640 percentage.
Through 14 games, the 10-11 squad had 248 assists on 390 field goals - a .636 percentage.
Through 14 games, the current squad has 237 assists on 423 field goals - a .560 percentage.

I will modify the implication of my original post - this does not mean the current squad is "more selfish;" if I spend more time with the data, I might find that the difference in offensive rebounding and transition scoring provides all the explanation.

Percentage-wise, the difference seems significant. But, in terms of raw numbers, it's about 2+ assists per game. And certainly, the subjectivity factor comes into play.

Also, even assuming that the scorekeeper at the Dome and MSG is unchanged over the 3 years (or wasn't sick or something for a game), and that there hasn't been an NCAA directive which has come down tightening the definition of an assist--there is a different scorekeeper involved in 5 of the 42 games. Which could be significant.

Anyway, unless someone wants to go all scientific and study this in much greater detail (my hand is not up), I think you've shown that these stats may be very meaningful. Or not.

 

[tbonezone]

i looked at the BE stats this morning and only 2 cuse players show up in the top 5 of the major categories.
fab leads the lead in blocks and dion is 4th in steals.

 

[Knicks411]

I think that is a pretty drastic difference in assists that can't be chalked up to score keeping.

I think we have some players who can score without assists this year; I'm thinking mainly of Dion and Kris. We did have Kris in 2010, but he is probably playing a bigger role in this offense, and Dion definitely is playing a bigger role.

Sometimes have a really high assist rate can be a bad thing; means you don't have guys who can create for themselves.

 

[mark79]

I think it's a myth that we don't have a Go-To-Guy. His name is Kris Joseph. He's the one they look to for a bucket when we need a response. Dion I would consider a second Go-To-Guy.

Agree. At the NC State game when we were a little rattled it was Kris who took key shots. Agree also that Dion is second. He may surpass Kris as number one soon tho if his incredible play continues to evolve. He is our best isolation player that's for sure. Gets to the hoop at will.

 

[JoeSU]

We may not have a traditional go-to guy, but we have four guys I feel pretty comfortable with taking a big shot (Dion, Kris, Scoop and Brandon, in that order).

I agree - JB has several legit options depending on the circumstances. It has to be extremely difficult to for the opposing coach to set-up his defense because there is more than one guy who could be taking that last shot.

 

[RoysRunts]

I think people overemphasize this necessity to have a "go to guy" to win the national championship. In the last 15 years aside from Kemba walker and Carmelo anthony I can not think of a team that won the NCAA championship that was built around one offensive player carrying their team to the championship.

Mateen Cleves/Tony Delk/Juan Dixon/Joe Smith/Miles Simon/Bibby throw in a couple of Fla Players