Really don't see us being better next year

[PoppyHart]

Next year reminds me of 2005-06, with a senior Cooney just chucking and chucking with impugnity a la Gerry, as it's often the best or only option.

We lose the best player on our team and there is no proven replacement who can offer a fraction of what we're losing.

We will have the same PG, who is extremely limited.

We haven't had a freshman who has been a "valuable" contributor and is not a PG since Donte, so it's hard to get overly excited that next year's frosh class AS FRESHMAN. By valuable, I don't mean nice, solid contributors like CJ or Jerami, I mean top 2-3 players on team, and that is what we will need with Rak gone. With the history of Rak, Melo, Coleman, McCullough as frosh, history suggests it will take time to acclimate.

I'd be surprised if McCullough hits his stride before mid-season, and Coleman is anybody's guess if he'll be able to stay on the court.

I've always been a major Cooney supporter, and I like the improvement by Roberson, but I think it's going to get worse next year before it gets better.

I hope we find a PG in the 2016 class who can step in like Flynn did when he pushed Wright aside. That would really allow the program to regain its stride.

 

[BlackKnight76]

We'll have a senior Cooney, a senior G, healthy and improved McCullough probably, KJ should take a step forward, Roberson should take a step forward...a top five recruiting class...

I'm excited for next year.

 

[syr14]

We go from 8 scholarship players to 12-13. That alone makes us a better team next year. We should be legitimate final 4 contenders IMO if certain players make strides.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Respect your opinion but couldn't disagree more.

Losing rak is huge- he's officially my favorite syracuse player ever- but, even if your prediction of "it gets worse before it gets better" is correct, then what will happen is exactly what some were hoping we would see this year (improve by March). Unfortunately, lots of things are out of place this year.

Depth. I cannot stress that enough.

 

[jekelish]

We will have the same PG, who is extremely limited.

You know, I've only heard rumors about this, but I'm pretty sure I once read that players can actually improve from one year to the next. Particularly freshman point guards who were unexpectedly thrown into the fire when they were recruited as a first year backup.

 

[Delmar]

Don't entirely agree, but the parallel to 2005-2006 is a good one.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Next year reminds me of 2005-06, with a senior Cooney just chucking and chucking with impugnity a la Gerry, as it's often the best or only option.

We lose the best player on our team and there is no proven replacement who can offer a fraction of what we're losing.

We will have the same PG, who is extremely limited.

We haven't had a freshman who has been a "valuable" contributor and is not a PG since Donte, so it's hard to get overly excited that next year's frosh class AS FRESHMAN. By valuable, I don't mean nice, solid contributors like CJ or Jerami, I mean top 2-3 players on team, and that is what we will need with Rak gone. With the history of Rak, Melo, Coleman, McCullough as frosh, history suggests it will take time to acclimate.

I'd be surprised if McCullough hits his stride before mid-season, and Coleman is anybody's guess if he'll be able to stay on the court.

I've always been a major Cooney supporter, and I like the improvement by Roberson, but I think it's going to get worse next year before it gets better.

I hope we find a PG in the 2016 class who can step in like Flynn did when he pushed Wright aside. That would really allow the program to regain its stride.

You may be over the top a bit here, but I think the loss of Rak can't be overstated. Regardless of who we get, they will take time to learn the defense alone, forget the offense that Rak has shown this year. I'm not confident DC II ever really comes back, but if he does, man that will be a great story.

 

[TheCusian]

Next year reminds me of 2005-06, with a senior Cooney just chucking and chucking with impugnity a la Gerry, as it's often the best or only option. We lose the best player on our team and there is no proven replacement who can offer a fraction of what we're losing. We will have the same PG, who is extremely limited. We haven't had a freshman who has been a "valuable" contributor and is not a PG since Donte, so it's hard to get overly excited that next year's frosh class AS FRESHMAN. By valuable, I don't mean nice, solid contributors like CJ or Jerami, I mean top 2-3 players on team, and that is what we will need with Rak gone. With the history of Rak, Melo, Coleman, McCullough as frosh, history suggests it will take time to acclimate. I'd be surprised if McCullough hits his stride before mid-season, and Coleman is anybody's guess if he'll be able to stay on the court. I've always been a major Cooney supporter, and I like the improvement by Roberson, but I think it's going to get worse next year before it gets better. I hope we find a PG in the 2016 class who can step in like Flynn did when he pushed Wright aside. That would really allow the program to regain its stride.

Classic "we just lost" post.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Too negative Pops. Next year will be one of best teams ever. Everything is coming together for it. Need to stop worrying about W-L this year and concentrate on it being the pre-season for next years epic run of destiny.

 

[pearl31]

if none of the current players improve and none of the new players contribute then, yeah, next year would be rough. I just tend to doubt either of those things is going to happen, let alone both.
I am excited about next year's team - with or without Bryant.

 

[Madbiker]

Roberson and Joseph will both improve. IMO Roberson will blossom into a major player. He has made a lot of improvement in the last 10 games. He can be very good. Joseph should be better -- not great but better. He's a long term developmental project -- kind of like Scoop. Still have Cooney and G. The real big question is whether Coleman can play and be effective. He is the best option for a C that can do something offensively. If we don't get Bryant, and DC2 can't play, we will really be hurting at the center with just a freshman Diagne and CO. Center is the most difficult position in the zone to learn. No freshman has done well right away. The most talented, ready to play incoming freshman is Malachi Richardson. But he plays the same position as Cooney (SG) so he won't get a lot of minutes. IMO the other guys are not immediate impact players. They may develop after a year or two to be nice players but probably not next year.

 

[Henny & Coke]

I tend to be on the optimistic side as a poster...but if you really believe that next year's team will be no better than this years, then I officially need to cash in on this somehow. Name the bet. I'm more than willing to take advantage of the craziness/negativity that creeps into a percentage of the fanbase once a few losses hits. Cause I just can't see this being accurate at all (sorry, not trying to rip your opinion...just providing mine, which is the exact opposite of your at the moment.)

 

[PoppyHart]

What is the parallel for Joseph's projected, and needed, improvement from 1 year to the next? I don't think there is one internally.

The last PGs we had that played significantly (i.e. started) and were at similar talent levels were Thues and Edwards. One left, the other was replaced by Autry. The other similar profile would possibly be Scoop, but he took a year hiatus which helped greatly. Perhaps this year would be similar to Lazarus if he was forced to run the show in 1995, but he wasn't.

I think Felix on Texas might be a good comparison to Kaleb. Came in expecting to back up Kabongo, and was clearly overwhelmed when forced to play big minutes early on. Two years later, he's a nice player, but not a game changer by any means.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

We're going to be just fine next season.

 

[SoBristol]

Look at what guys need to do to get better. Joseph is playing at about 165 lbs. He needs to get stronger and he will-- when he does he will be more effective driving. He needs to be more accurate with that pull-up -- and that can happen.

 

[SoBristol]

We're going to be just fine next season.

Well, we will be better in 4 positions, and Roberson & McCullough should be significantly improved. But we won't have much at center, unless McCullough grows into that role. The in-coming frosh are not sure bets to contribute. Richardson might be ready, but he is behind Cooney & Gbinije and those two will certainly log big minutes.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Well, we will be better in 4 positions, and Roberson & McCullough should be significantly improved. But we won't have much at center, unless McCullough grows into that role. The in-coming frosh are not sure bets to contribute. Richardson might be ready, but he is behind Cooney & Gbinije and those two will certainly log big minutes.

Teams have crap centers all the time. Right now we just happen to have a really, really good one that produces like a maniac. Now we think we need that every year to be successful.

 

[jekelish]

What is the parallel for Joseph's projected, and needed, improvement from 1 year to the next? I don't think there is one internally.

The last PGs we had that played significantly (i.e. started) and were at similar talent levels were Thues and Edwards. One left, the other was replaced by Autry. The other similar profile would possibly be Scoop, but he took a year hiatus which helped greatly. Perhaps this year would be similar to Lazarus if he was forced to run the show in 1995, but he wasn't.

I think Felix on Texas might be a good comparison to Kaleb. Came in expecting to back up Kabongo, and was clearly overwhelmed when forced to play big minutes early on. Two years later, he's a nice player, but not a game changer by any means.

I would go with Jason Hart as a possible comparison for Joseph, frankly. Jason wound up putting up decent numbers as a freshman, but anyone who watched that season, particularly early in that season, could see a kid who wasn't ready to lead a high major D1 team. Obviously he got there. Joseph isn't at the same level as Hart was as a freshman, but he's leaps and bounds above Thues.

 

[Conrad13]

I'm usually more optimistic than the average fan, but I'm with you a bit Poppy. I'm mostly worried about the center position. We are going to need either a freshman or Coleman to be pretty solid. Both of those things could happen but big men usually take a while to develop in college.

I do like the odds that both Joseph and Roberson will be two notches better next year than this.

 

[Henny & Coke]

Don't entirely agree, but the parallel to 2005-2006 is a good one.

No, the parallel to the 2005-06 season is not a good one. Not at all.

The 05-06 team lost 2 players that played significant mins & another 2 players that played pretty big roles in 04-05:
Warrick - 21.4ppg, 37.5mpg - graduated
Pace - 10.8ppg, 33.3mpg - graduated
Forth - 4.6ppg, 5.1rpg, 19.5mpg - graduated
Edelin - 4.0ppg, 15.7mpg in 20 games - didn't return next year.

So, basically, the 05-06 team had to replace all those guys. The guys that ended up contributing the most in 05-06 were:
Gerry - 16.0ppg - Prior season's MPG were 35.6, so he was the lone returning player who played similar mins season before
D. Nichols - 13.3ppg - Prior season's MPG were 12.9 in 26 games
Devendorf - 12.2ppg - This is his Freshman year, so obviously he is new to the team in 05-06
T. Rob - 10.7ppg - Prior season's MPG were 18.5
D. Watkins - 7.1ppg - Prior season's MPG were 14.0 in 26 games
J. Wright - 4.3ppg - Prior season's MPG were 8.5 in 19 games

So, basically, the 05-06 team had 2 real starters returning from year before (Gerry & D. Nichols), while everyone else had to increase their role by a good amount. That will not have to happen next year, as we are literally losing only one player (RAK), AND, we are getting 2 others back that we cannot even have suit up for us right now (DC2 & McCullough). Every single other player will be returning...and will have played big minutes this year, and will be all the better for it.

In fact, I feel a better comparison would be the 11-12 team, which only lost Rick Jackson from the season before. That's a much better comp, IMO.

 

[Eagles20]

I definitely think next years team will be better. I have been most surprised lately with the improvement shown by Roberson. I think he will be a beast next year. The summer is so important for player developement. I can't see anyone on this team not getting better.

I tend to be skeptical of incoming freshman until I see them play a few games on the college level. I have been visiting the recruiting board often this year and it sounds promising that Richardson and Diange will be contributors next season.

 

[Henny & Coke]

What is the parallel for Joseph's projected, and needed, improvement from 1 year to the next? I don't think there is one internally.

The last PGs we had that played significantly (i.e. started) and were at similar talent levels were Thues and Edwards. One left, the other was replaced by Autry. The other similar profile would possibly be Scoop, but he took a year hiatus which helped greatly. Perhaps this year would be similar to Lazarus if he was forced to run the show in 1995, but he wasn't.

I think Felix on Texas might be a good comparison to Kaleb. Came in expecting to back up Kabongo, and was clearly overwhelmed when forced to play big minutes early on. Two years later, he's a nice player, but not a game changer by any means.

I have a post that will compare KJ to other, similar type players (terms of recruit ranking, body type, and current season production - MPG/PPG/APG stats) that will provide a comp for what we can expect for next year.

The conclusion I came up with (via my prelim analysis) is that the best comparisons to KJ's situation this year (and projection for next year) is Monte Morris (Iowa St) and Codi Miller-McIntyre (Wake Forrest), but I will provide much more detail tomrw in the post. But, these two guys have increased their PPG by 49% and 56%, respectively, while raising their APG by 59% and 62%, respectively, in their Sophomore seasons from Freshmen stats.

I will test my theory that PG's develop a ton from Freshman to Sophomore years in this post.

 

[Eagles20]

I have a post that will compare KJ to other, similar type players (terms of recruit ranking, body type, and current season production - MPG/PPG/APG stats) that will provide a comp for what we can expect for next year.

The conclusion I came up with (via my prelim analysis) is that the best comparisons to KJ's situation this year (and projection for next year) is Monte Morris (Iowa St) and Codi Miller-McIntyre (Wake Forrest), but I will provide much more detail tomrw in the post. But, these two guys have increased their PPG by 49% and 56%, respectively, while raising their APG by 59% and 62%, respectively, in their Sophomore seasons from Freshmen stats.

I will test my theory that PG's develop a ton from Freshman to Sophomore years in this post.

Looking forward to that...seems very interesting

 

[SoBristol]

Teams have crap centers all the time. Right now we just happen to have a really, really good one that produces like a maniac. Now we think we need that every year to be successful.

Yes, Rak has us spoiled.
We don't always need a maniac on offense (17 points from the center spot), but we need to get inside scoring from somewhere (last year, it was Grant, with Rak being a supplemental part on offense). Our zone needs a center who can stop the opponent's inside stuff (last year, that was Keita, in tandem with Rak). If you can't compete with teams like NC on the inside, you struggle.
Unless you can live on the perimeter with real good outside shooting from more than one guy. Can we?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Yes, Rak has us spoiled.
We don't always need a maniac on offense (17 points from the center spot), but we need to get inside scoring from somewhere (last year, it was Grant, with Rak being a supplemental part on offense). Our zone needs a center who can stop the opponent's inside stuff (last year, that was Keita, in tandem with Rak). If you can't compete with teams like NC on the inside, you struggle.
Unless you can live on the perimeter with real good outside shooting from more than one guy. Can we?

You don't think McCullough will give that?