Reasons to believe

[GoSU96]

Again I get who they have played but there are a lot of indicators that this could be a good year.

The identity of this team is shaping up as a team that P and Marrone would put together. Run the ball and stop the run, 27th in rushing offense, 12th in rushing defense. If that held for the year you would be looking at more than a good season.

Regardless of where they end up ranked Dino is playing to the team’s strengths. Slowing tempo, 63 plays per game, running the ball more than passing, giving a talented, but thin defense, a chance to not be wiped out late in the game. True complementary football.

This defense has been shockingly good so far. Two consecutive games with less than 3yds per play, 200 yd total offense; first time since 2009. Lowest three game total allowed since at least 2009.

At this point in the season, 29th in scoring, 12th in rushing, 24th in passing, 4th in total, 9th in sacks, 3rd in TFL, 20th in opponent 3rd down conversion, 3rd in long plays from scrimmage allowed. A constant problem with this team has been allowing explosive plays in bunches, so far they haven’t allowed a single play of 40 and more yds. They have only given up 18 plays of 10 or more yds.

Thats nuts for this program regardless of opponents. Some context is that starting with 2015 total defense rankings have been 99th, 122nd, 106th, 88th, 115th, 112th.

is this really one of the 10 best defenses in d-1, probably not, but it’s already way better than it’s been at any time under Babers. Tear up tony whites contract, double it and extend it. Even a top 40 defense puts 8 or 9 wins on the table.

worried about lb and db depth, but if they stay healthy i like their chances.

offense has upside. I think Devito has been perfect on play action, that is going to be there even more. The screen game has been good. If opponents load up against the run, Devito has the skill set to take advantage. look for them to take more downfield shots on first down and 2nd and short.

Biggest area that needs to be improved is 3rd down.

If this team ends up in the 60s on offense and 40s on defense 6 is almost a lock, 7/8 likely, and could be better.

 

[CuseCrew08]

Agreed, the offense is still very much a work in progress. I hope the young (more talented) WR's get more run as they learn the offense. Getting our OL 100% back and Rhino will help.

Defense keeps flying around making plays, TO's have been low but I can only imagine they eventually start happening.

It's not like the rest of our schedule is a murderers row. WF might be our second toughest opponent left on schedule.

 

[Ragman2000]

We're winning out goddamnit. We were evenly matched with Rutgers and some epically horrible calls had a big influence on that game, just as easily could have ended up a win.

I think things are coming together nicely and there is huge upside this year. At a minimum I expect we'll have a winning record in the ACC. We got this.

 

[TheCusian]

Agreed, the offense is still very much a work in progress. I hope the young (more talented) WR's get more run as they learn the offense. Getting our OL 100% back and Rhino will help.

Defense keeps flying around making plays, TO's have been low but I can only imagine they eventually start happening.

It's not like the rest of our schedule is a murderers row. WF might be our second toughest opponent left on schedule.

Clemson is like "whew"

 

[RF2044]

Again I get who they have played but there are a lot of indicators that this could be a good year.

The identity of this team is shaping up as a team that P and Marrone would put together. Run the ball and stop the run, 27th in rushing offense, 12th in rushing defense. If that held for the year you would be looking at more than a good season.

Regardless of where they end up ranked Dino is playing to the team’s strengths. Slowing tempo, 63 plays per game, running the ball more than passing, giving a talented, but thin defense, a chance to not be wiped out late in the game. True complementary football.

This defense has been shockingly good so far. Two consecutive games with less than 3yds per play, 200 yd total offense; first time since 2009. Lowest three game total allowed since at least 2009.

At this point in the season, 29th in scoring, 12th in rushing, 24th in passing, 4th in total, 9th in sacks, 3rd in TFL, 20th in opponent 3rd down conversion, 3rd in long plays from scrimmage allowed. A constant problem with this team has been allowing explosive plays in bunches, so far they haven’t allowed a single play of 40 and more yds. They have only given up 18 plays of 10 or more yds.

Thats nuts for this program regardless of opponents. Some context is that starting with 2015 total defense rankings have been 99th, 122nd, 106th, 88th, 115th, 112th.

is this really one of the 10 best defenses in d-1, probably not, but it’s already way better than it’s been at any time under Babers. Tear up tony whites contract, double it and extend it. Even a top 40 defense puts 8 or 9 wins on the table.

worried about lb and db depth, but if they stay healthy i like their chances.

offense has upside. I think Devito has been perfect on play action, that is going to be there even more. The screen game has been good. If opponents load up against the run, Devito has the skill set to take advantage. look for them to take more downfield shots on first down and 2nd and short.

Biggest area that needs to be improved is 3rd down.

If this team ends up in the 60s on offense and 40s on defense 6 is almost a lock, 7/8 likely, and could be better.

When have we ever tackled well -- this team has been REALLY impressive making tackles in the open field.

Great to see.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Good post and I agree we just have to show that we can run a competent offense versus everybody else on our schedule, we don't need to be world beaters but we need production and sustained drives and like you said average offensive production. The strength of the offense is the running backs but need get creative there on how to use them effectively. I like the 60- 40 split and situational football.

and keep Tommy out of 3rd and 9-10 and worse

 

[GoSU96]

When have we ever tackled well -- this team has been REALLY impressive making tackles in the open field.

Great to see.

They have played well at all three levels. The d line has far exceeded expectations, and that’s with McKinney and Kingsley missing more than 1/2 the time. Lockett looks like he could be this years jay bromley. Fuentes is a big dude, stout.

‘’Caleb and Cody have been lights out. The Dline and LBs have spent much of the time in the opponents backfield. This week is a step up in class, but I don’t think they are going to get run over like last year. The only db that has looked lost in coverage is Nunn that I have seen.

not getting gashed on runs, beat over the top passing. Best thing is 11 guys playing down hill instead of chasing.

 

[bigmike]

And throw in our defense getting a few well timed turnovers, and we’ll be in business.

 

[GoSU96]

Good post and I agree we just have to show that we can run a competent offense versus everybody else on our schedule, we don't need to be world beaters but we need production and sustained drives and like you said average offensive production. The strength of the offense is the running backs but need get creative there on how to use them effectively. I like the 60- 40 split and situational football.

and keep Tommy out of 3rd and 9-10.

Yep right now 3rd and long still = death. Protection needs to be better, receivers need to win their matchups.

 

[TheCusian]

I love the optimism (as you and everyone else knows) but we've not played a good offense yet. The good news is that Liberty is not a balanced team.

Team	+ Off Ranking	+ Def Ranking
Ohio	#71	#117
Rutgers	#102	#49
Liberty	#25	#80

 

[javadoc]

I love the optimism (as you and everyone else knows) but we've not played a good offense yet. The good news is that Liberty is not a balanced team.

Team	+ Off Ranking	+ Def Ranking
Ohio	#71	#117
Rutgers	#102	#49
Liberty	#25	#80

What a delightfully named statistic.

 

[Chip]

Looks like I found my pre-game music for Friday.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Looks like I found my pre-game music for Friday.

I will crack that out at the tailgate right after Ratt and Night Ranger!

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I love the optimism (as you and everyone else knows) but we've not played a good offense yet. The good news is that Liberty is not a balanced team.

Team	+ Off Ranking	+ Def Ranking
Ohio	#71	#117
Rutgers	#102	#49
Liberty	#25	#80

In crunch time we also did not play to our strength against Rutgers.

4:38 to 3:19 left in the 3rd 7-7
3 and out all pass plays

0:24 left in 3rd to 14:06 in the 4th 7-14
3 and out all pass plays

10:28 left in the 4th 7-14
1 pass play fumble

We had 3 drives and called 7 plays none of which were runs or involved our best player. There is so much unknown with this team, even though we are 1/4 of the way through the season. Can we trust the OC which his play calls against teams other than Ohio and Albany? Can we trust Tommy to produce against teams other than those two? If we get good Gilbert and good Tommy we can have a winning season. If we have one bad, we won't make a Bowl. If we have both bad, good bye Dino.

 

[SUDadx2]

I love the optimism (as you and everyone else knows) but we've not played a good offense yet. The good news is that Liberty is not a balanced team.

Team	+ Off Ranking	+ Def Ranking
Ohio	#71	#117
Rutgers	#102	#49
Liberty	#25	#80

Do Ohio and Rutgers not have good numbers because they played Syracuse?

Liberty hasn't played a very talented schedule so far; Campbell, Troy and Old Dominion.

Liberty is the best offense our defense will see so far, but those numbers would be more meaningful if all three teams had played the same opponents. Statistics...

 

[GoSU96]

If you want to see the meat and potato play of this offense go to 830 of the first quarter Of the Albany game. There was an oline penalty that negated it, but that play hasn’t been stopped all year. And look to the top and how Alford runs his route. That seven yds will be there all day.

 

[orangenauburn]

Malik Willis is such an x factor

 

[qdawgg]

In crunch time we also did not play to our strength against Rutgers.

4:38 to 3:19 left in the 3rd 7-7
3 and out all pass plays

0:24 left in 3rd to 14:06 in the 4th 7-14
3 and out all pass plays

10:28 left in the 4th 7-14
1 pass play fumble

We had 3 drives and called 7 plays none of which were runs or involved our best player. There is so much unknown with this team, even though we are 1/4 of the way through the season. Can we trust the OC which his play calls against teams other than Ohio and Albany? Can we trust Tommy to produce against teams other than those two? If we get good Gilbert and good Tommy we can have a winning season. If we have one bad, we won't make a Bowl. If we have both bad, good bye Dino.

Ive been saying this for a couple days. We score on a running play to go up 7 and then don’t run the ball again except for TD on one play.

 

[CuseLegacy]

 

[tep624]

I love the optimism (as you and everyone else knows) but we've not played a good offense yet. The good news is that Liberty is not a balanced team.

Team	+ Off Ranking	+ Def Ranking
Ohio	#71	#117
Rutgers	#102	#49
Liberty	#25	#80

Exactly. Our Defense has looked the part against limited offenses. They haven't faced P5 level skill position players yet (Rutgers does not qualify).

I think the optimism though is rooted in the fact that we have some high caliber players on our defense that are already proven commodities (Bear, G Williams, M Jones, Wax) and Chestnut certainly looks like he's on the path.

 

[tep624]

If you want to see the meat and potato play of this offense go to 830 of the first quarter Of the Albany game. There was an oline penalty that negated it, but that play hasn’t been stopped all year. And look to the top and how Alford runs his route. That seven yds will be there all day.

All we need out of our passing game is time to throw, progressions, and hitting the open man consistently. Every game I see with Luke Benson having 0 or 1 targets makes me want to vomit. We need to take advantage of the natural mismatches we have with some of our better athletes. I don't get the lack of involvement of the TE's and I don't get the handcuffs on Alford or why he isn't #1 now. I'd be targeting those guys on every drive. Plus that leads to allowing Alford to cut up field deep as well if you throw short to him a few times, sideline outs or whatever.

That game back in 2011 when Nick Provo torched West Virginia on wheel routes was a thing of beauty. And we've got a TE who is faster and more athletic who would be perfect for that route that we never run it with...blows my mind. Benson vs a LBer is a mismatch we win all day.

 

[orangecuse]

Looks like I found my pre-game music for Friday.

Such a great tune.

I love Bon Jovi's "Something to Believe In" too.

 

[capeorange]

 

[qdawgg]

All we need out of our passing game is time to throw, progressions, and hitting the open man consistently. Every game I see with Luke Benson having 0 or 1 targets makes me want to vomit. We need to take advantage of the natural mismatches we have with some of our better athletes. I don't get the lack of involvement of the TE's and I don't get the handcuffs on Alford or why he isn't #1 now. I'd be targeting those guys on every drive. Plus that leads to allowing Alford to cut up field deep as well if you throw short to him a few times, sideline outs or whatever.

That game back in 2011 when Nick Provo torched West Virginia on wheel routes was a thing of beauty. And we've got a TE who is faster and more athletic who would be perfect for that route that we never run it with...blows my mind. Benson vs a LBer is a mismatch we win all day.

Some of our coaches are the biggest obstacle to us reaching a bowl. We have the players to win 6 games. I’m not worried about the players showing up to play. I don’t know if the staff can gameplan or make in game adjustments to win 6.

 

[orange79]