Reasons to believe

[SUskibum]

In crunch time we also did not play to our strength against Rutgers.

4:38 to 3:19 left in the 3rd 7-7
3 and out all pass plays

0:24 left in 3rd to 14:06 in the 4th 7-14
3 and out all pass plays

10:28 left in the 4th 7-14
1 pass play fumble

We had 3 drives and called 7 plays none of which were runs or involved our best player. There is so much unknown with this team, even though we are 1/4 of the way through the season. Can we trust the OC which his play calls against teams other than Ohio and Albany? Can we trust Tommy to produce against teams other than those two? If we get good Gilbert and good Tommy we can have a winning season. If we have one bad, we won't make a Bowl. If we have both bad, good bye Dino.

This is gonna sound stupid but I really think the staff forgot we are a good running team. For 5 years we have been abysmal (except Dungey broken plays) running and I think they subliminally abandoned it.

 

[SanDiegoCuse]

They have played well at all three levels. The d line has far exceeded expectations, and that’s with McKinney and Kingsley missing more than 1/2 the time. Lockett looks like he could be this years jay bromley. Fuentes is a big dude, stout.

‘’Caleb and Cody have been lights out. The Dline and LBs have spent much of the time in the opponents backfield. This week is a step up in class, but I don’t think they are going to get run over like last year. The only db that has looked lost in coverage is Nunn that I have seen.

not getting gashed on runs, beat over the top passing. Best thing is 11 guys playing down hill instead of chasing.

And Nunn is just coming back from an injury. Last season he was battling Williams for a spot in the CB rotation. He's super talented and once healthy should provide excellent depth.

 

[0.2 YNdeeR]

And Nunn is just coming back from an injury. Last season he was battling Williams for a spot in the CB rotation. He's super talented and once healthy should provide excellent depth.

He must be mostly recovered because he's the first guy down the field on KO's.

 

[TheCusian]

Do Ohio and Rutgers not have good numbers because they played Syracuse?

Liberty hasn't played a very talented schedule so far; Campbell, Troy and Old Dominion.

Liberty is the best offense our defense will see so far, but those numbers would be more meaningful if all three teams had played the same opponents. Statistics...

While stats this early in the season are flawed - they use a good bit of last seasons data, departures/additions, and opponent strength are factored in. By week 5, they are a more honest depiction of where the teams are.

Yeah, CFB is especially tough because there are a lot of teams and not a lot of data (12 games per team is not 100+ NBA games). But stuff can be gleaned.

 

[Deleted member 8116]

Beat me to it haha!

 

[texascpa]

For me, this is a prime case of perception does not equal reality. It seems to me that we are bend but don't break defense, but the numbers don't prove that out. We don't bend much.

 

[RMH44]

He must be mostly recovered because he's the first guy down the field on KO's.

I noticed number 15 also but I wasn't sure if it was Nunn or Cooper.

 

[texascpa]

Exactly. Our Defense has looked the part against limited offenses. They haven't faced P5 level skill position players yet (Rutgers does not qualify).

I think the optimism though is rooted in the fact that we have some high caliber players on our defense that are already proven commodities (Bear, G Williams, M Jones, Wax) and Chestnut certainly looks like he's on the path.

The fact that Liberty isn't higher in defense or offense based off of their schedule so far tells me they aren't last year's team. They've played a bad FCS team a Conference USA bottom-dweller and a current middle of the road FBS team in Troy. Our schedules are similar, but our defense is head and shoulders above theirs and much, much better than any they have faced so far. Contain their QB, we win.

 

[Ozone!]

One at a time!

 

[Trueblue25]

We're winning out goddamnit. We were evenly matched with Rutgers and some epically horrible calls had a big influence on that game, just as easily could have ended up a win.

I think things are coming together nicely and there is huge upside this year. At a minimum I expect we'll have a winning record in the ACC. We got this.

Screw it im in

 

[TheCusian]

The fact that Liberty isn't higher in defense or offense based off of their schedule so far tells me they aren't last year's team. They've played a bad FCS team a Conference USA bottom-dweller and a current middle of the road FBS team in Troy. Our schedules are similar, but our defense is head and shoulders above theirs and much, much better than any they have faced so far. Contain their QB, we win.

Yep. I think a win looks like us running down their throats with Tucker having a 100+ yd 2TD day, TD with a toss to Harris and a "contained" Liberty QB accounting for 2 scores.

 

[Keger03]

I noticed number 15 also but I wasn't sure if it was Nunn or Cooper.

Cooper is 25. The other 15 we have is QB Morgan.

 

[RMH44]

Cooper is 25. The other 15 we have is QB Morgan.

Yep...my bad.

 

[David321]

Our defense looks great and our conference is weak.

 

[tep624]

The fact that Liberty isn't higher in defense or offense based off of their schedule so far tells me they aren't last year's team. They've played a bad FCS team a Conference USA bottom-dweller and a current middle of the road FBS team in Troy. Our schedules are similar, but our defense is head and shoulders above theirs and much, much better than any they have faced so far. Contain their QB, we win.

It will be a good measuring stick because their QB is a legit higher end P5 skill position player.

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

Again I get who they have played but there are a lot of indicators that this could be a good year.

The identity of this team is shaping up as a team that P and Marrone would put together. Run the ball and stop the run, 27th in rushing offense, 12th in rushing defense. If that held for the year you would be looking at more than a good season.

Regardless of where they end up ranked Dino is playing to the team’s strengths. Slowing tempo, 63 plays per game, running the ball more than passing, giving a talented, but thin defense, a chance to not be wiped out late in the game. True complementary football.

This defense has been shockingly good so far. Two consecutive games with less than 3yds per play, 200 yd total offense; first time since 2009. Lowest three game total allowed since at least 2009.

At this point in the season, 29th in scoring, 12th in rushing, 24th in passing, 4th in total, 9th in sacks, 3rd in TFL, 20th in opponent 3rd down conversion, 3rd in long plays from scrimmage allowed. A constant problem with this team has been allowing explosive plays in bunches, so far they haven’t allowed a single play of 40 and more yds. They have only given up 18 plays of 10 or more yds.

Thats nuts for this program regardless of opponents. Some context is that starting with 2015 total defense rankings have been 99th, 122nd, 106th, 88th, 115th, 112th.

is this really one of the 10 best defenses in d-1, probably not, but it’s already way better than it’s been at any time under Babers. Tear up tony whites contract, double it and extend it. Even a top 40 defense puts 8 or 9 wins on the table.

worried about lb and db depth, but if they stay healthy i like their chances.

offense has upside. I think Devito has been perfect on play action, that is going to be there even more. The screen game has been good. If opponents load up against the run, Devito has the skill set to take advantage. look for them to take more downfield shots on first down and 2nd and short.

Biggest area that needs to be improved is 3rd down.

If this team ends up in the 60s on offense and 40s on defense 6 is almost a lock, 7/8 likely, and could be better.

I wanna be someone who believes, yeaeaea

 

[Chip]

This is gonna sound stupid but I really think the staff forgot we are a good running team. For 5 years we have been abysmal (except Dungey broken plays) running and I think they subliminally abandoned it.

I don't necessarily think that's the case, but I do think against stronger defenses they sometimes get into this mode, and then go into all passing:

 

[Crusty]

Again I get who they have played but there are a lot of indicators that this could be a good year.

The identity of this team is shaping up as a team that P and Marrone would put together. Run the ball and stop the run, 27th in rushing offense, 12th in rushing defense. If that held for the year you would be looking at more than a good season.

Regardless of where they end up ranked Dino is playing to the team’s strengths. Slowing tempo, 63 plays per game, running the ball more than passing, giving a talented, but thin defense, a chance to not be wiped out late in the game. True complementary football.

This defense has been shockingly good so far. Two consecutive games with less than 3yds per play, 200 yd total offense; first time since 2009. Lowest three game total allowed since at least 2009.

At this point in the season, 29th in scoring, 12th in rushing, 24th in passing, 4th in total, 9th in sacks, 3rd in TFL, 20th in opponent 3rd down conversion, 3rd in long plays from scrimmage allowed. A constant problem with this team has been allowing explosive plays in bunches, so far they haven’t allowed a single play of 40 and more yds. They have only given up 18 plays of 10 or more yds.

Thats nuts for this program regardless of opponents. Some context is that starting with 2015 total defense rankings have been 99th, 122nd, 106th, 88th, 115th, 112th.

is this really one of the 10 best defenses in d-1, probably not, but it’s already way better than it’s been at any time under Babers. Tear up tony whites contract, double it and extend it. Even a top 40 defense puts 8 or 9 wins on the table.

worried about lb and db depth, but if they stay healthy i like their chances.

offense has upside. I think Devito has been perfect on play action, that is going to be there even more. The screen game has been good. If opponents load up against the run, Devito has the skill set to take advantage. look for them to take more downfield shots on first down and 2nd and short.

Biggest area that needs to be improved is 3rd down.

If this team ends up in the 60s on offense and 40s on defense 6 is almost a lock, 7/8 likely, and could be better.

I appreciate your optimism and I normally would be jumping on your band wagon. However, all the stats mean next to nothing. We have played three of the weakest teams in CFB and are not even 3-0. We now know how bad Ohio is and we only put up 20 points. Rutgers has no offense and Albany was a joke.

We have a couple of real holes in the OLine that won't be fixed anytime this year. Sadly, TD simply doesn't have it and the others are development projects. ST are uneven and a couple of injuries on the DLine and we're probably done. I find it difficult to see better than 4 wins.

This just isn't the year. 2022 looks like a different story. We get rid of the deadwood on the OLine and replace them with some younger promising talent. Much better chance one of the QBs rises above. Another year of seasoning and the D could be top 20-30.

I hope we beat Liberty and have cause to change my perspective.

 

[Orangello]

What could possibly go wrong ?

 

[GoSU96]

Again I get who they have played but there are a lot of indicators that this could be a good year.

The identity of this team is shaping up as a team that P and Marrone would put together. Run the ball and stop the run, 27th in rushing offense, 12th in rushing defense. If that held for the year you would be looking at more than a good season.

Regardless of where they end up ranked Dino is playing to the team’s strengths. Slowing tempo, 63 plays per game, running the ball more than passing, giving a talented, but thin defense, a chance to not be wiped out late in the game. True complementary football.

This defense has been shockingly good so far. Two consecutive games with less than 3yds per play, 200 yd total offense; first time since 2009. Lowest three game total allowed since at least 2009.

At this point in the season, 29th in scoring, 12th in rushing, 24th in passing, 4th in total, 9th in sacks, 3rd in TFL, 20th in opponent 3rd down conversion, 3rd in long plays from scrimmage allowed. A constant problem with this team has been allowing explosive plays in bunches, so far they haven’t allowed a single play of 40 and more yds. They have only given up 18 plays of 10 or more yds.

Thats nuts for this program regardless of opponents. Some context is that starting with 2015 total defense rankings have been 99th, 122nd, 106th, 88th, 115th, 112th.

is this really one of the 10 best defenses in d-1, probably not, but it’s already way better than it’s been at any time under Babers. Tear up tony whites contract, double it and extend it. Even a top 40 defense puts 8 or 9 wins on the table.

worried about lb and db depth, but if they stay healthy i like their chances.

offense has upside. I think Devito has been perfect on play action, that is going to be there even more. The screen game has been good. If opponents load up against the run, Devito has the skill set to take advantage. look for them to take more downfield shots on first down and 2nd and short.

Biggest area that needs to be improved is 3rd down.

If this team ends up in the 60s on offense and 40s on defense 6 is almost a lock, 7/8 likely, and could be better.

Still think Devito gives the team more upside, but if Dino wants to go full Shafer, it’s his job to make that call

my opinion, play them both

 

[Shenexon]

Still think Devito gives the team more upside, but I’d Dino wants to go full Schafer, it’s his job to make that call

my opinion, play them both

Sure seemed as though the QB choice was made to suit the game plan. Will that choice change if the game plan changes? If FSU schemes to stop Tucker, will TD be the choice to focus on the passing game? How well will the coaches do at adjusting the offense or will they stick with the running game along with screens? Is the option a realistic approach for this particular SU team?

 

[Millhouse]

and keep Tommy out of 3rd and 9-10 and worse

Sounds good until you remember that it's impossible to avoid