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[QUOTE="AZcuse77, post: 2096167, member: 6173"]
We're going to have to agree to disagree that 18-15 with an RPI ~80 gives us a 85-90% chance of being in... It is interesting/flawed that who we lose to in the second round does have some RPI impact.

There is actually another scenario I hadn't thought of.  We don't have a first round bye locked up yet (currently we are #9 the last single bye slot).  If we go 9-9 and GT bumps us out of the bye slot (or a 3-way 9-9 scenario that we lost tiebreaker) we could fall to the first round of ACC tournament...

Strangely... this would mean we get a 3rd game with 9-20 Boston College which might add a win (well hopefully) but might also drop our RPI despite the win for playing the #210 team.  It could also mean us winning the next two rounds gets us to 20 wins at 20-15.  Winning just in the second round gets us to 19-15 but against two lower ranked teams and probably still ~80 RPI.

I really dislike the double bye system.  This year a 9-9 team may have to win 5 games in 5 days which is pretty impossible(I think UConn is only one ever to do it).   6 teams are in that spot and really have no chance despite some very talented teams.  It's all just to protect the blue bloods from getting tired out before the NCAA tournament.
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