RPI

[Brooky03]

I know, I hate it, you hate it, the RPI hates itself, but how big a concern is it for us?

I got into this discussion on one of the national boards and the FSU fan I'm discussing it with is convinced it would be practically impossible for us to get under 70 from our current spot at 78. I argued that a win against GT could do the trick. Am I way off?

How likely is it that we get under 70 and what needs to happen for that to occur?

 

[lincolncuse]

I know, I hate it, you hate it, the RPI hates itself, but how big a concern is it for us?

I got into this discussion on one of the national boards and the FSU fan I'm discussing it with is convinced it would be practically impossible for us to get under 70 from our current spot at 78. I argued that a win against GT could do the trick. Am I way off?

How likely is it that we get under 70 and what needs to happen for that to occur?

Pretty sure our RPI was in the 70s last year and we got in.

 

[shandeezy7]

Pretty sure our RPI was in the 70s last year and we got in.

Yes, RPI was 71 at the end of the season last year. I'm not sure how much beating GTech (RPI 95) will help our RPI, but we are at least in the ballpark of where we were last year.

 

[jncuse]

Use the RPIWizard at RPIForecast to estimate where it will be,

WHEN WE BEAT GEORGIA TECH

To me 70's is fine.It's very high, and would be the highest ever, but I think it's within reason.

I do get scared of the optics with an "8" or "9" in front.

 

[MickGoCuse5]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Syracuse.html

 

[AZcuse77]

I know, I hate it, you hate it, the RPI hates itself, but how big a concern is it for us?

I got into this discussion on one of the national boards and the FSU fan I'm discussing it with is convinced it would be practically impossible for us to get under 70 from our current spot at 78. I argued that a win against GT could do the trick. Am I way off?

How likely is it that we get under 70 and what needs to happen for that to occur?

Seems like a win at home to GT is a must... and given their RPI it won't help us much. Beating GT then winning one in ACC tourney we would then play a low RPI team where even a loss may move us up in RPI rankings as silly as that system is... so it seems like we would end up around 70 again.

 

[jncuse]

I am purely guessing at the ACC tourney matchups.

But say win Georgia Tech, win Wake Forest, lose Notre Dame.

Not concerned with that at all.

 

[jncuse]

Lose to Georgia Tech and lose vs Virginia Tech in first round of ACC.

This one frightens the hell out of me. As said a few times, I am not a person that gets very worked up by a higher RPI as long as it within reason - they will look at other stuff. #99 however is not reasonable enough.

 

[AZcuse77]

I am purely guessing at the ACC tourney matchups.

But say win Georgia Tech, win Wake Forest, lose Notre Dame.

View attachment 90482

Not concerned with that at all.

With a 2-10 road/neutral (0-2 in NYC) record I'd be a lot more concerned in our ability to win one in the tourney and beating GT than the committee decision if that happens. It is interesting that TCU/KState both have better records, better RPIs, and better Top 40 KenPoms. Both are 6-10 in Big12 so I imagine 8-10 and a tourney win would probably get them in with their metrics... but at 7-11 with a tourney win do the trick with the committee overlooking their conference record?

 

[Brooky03]

Lose to Georgia Tech and lose vs Virginia Tech in first round of ACC.

View attachment 90483

This one frightens the hell out of me. As said a few times, I am not a person that gets very worked up by a higher RPI as long as it within reason - they will look at other stuff. #99 however is not reasonable enough.

We gone if the above happens

 

[CorduroyG]

We gone if the above happens

if we lose our last 2 games i dont care how we compare to other bubble teams, we would not deserve to be in.

 

[Brooky03]

if we lose our last 2 games i dont care how we compare to other bubble teams, we would not deserve to be in.

Agreed.

 

[billsin01]

if we lose our last 2 games i dont care how we compare to other bubble teams, we would not deserve to be in.

I always feel this way. My personal viewpoint is you either don't do anything to force your way in and you're left hoping the selection folks look kindly on you or you play your way in and force their hand. This team controls its own destiny. In all likelihood even one win, vs. Ga Tech at home, gets them in. But go win that game and one in the tourney. If you really think you're capable of a run in March, then do that much to prove it.

 

[SUintheVille]

Fret not. Easy equation. Beat GT: >60% Cuse is in. Beat GT and win 1 in ACCT: 20 wins, 99% in. Think not of 2 straight losses.

 

[Brooky03]

Fret not. Easy equation. Beat GT: >60% Cuse is in. Beat GT and win 1 in ACCT: 20 wins, 99% in. Think not of 2 straight losses.

I'm down with this. But it would be 19 wins

 

[AZcuse77]

Fret not. Easy equation. Beat GT: >60% Cuse is in. Beat GT and win 1 in ACCT: 20 wins, 99% in. Think not of 2 straight losses.

Winning vs GT and one in tourney would not give us 20 wins. Only beating GT then losing first round would give us a high 70's RPI at best the year after we were the first team ever to get in with a >70 RPI (I think?) and that was 71 so I sure do not see that as >60% even with a weak bubble.

At mid-season I thought we had go to 11-7 or 10-8 with two tourney wins. Now I think with the weak bubble that 10-8 with one tourney win will have the committee overlook our RPI and get it in that same 71 range. High ~80 RPI with our OOC and road record (from only 1 more win) and I don't see us getting in regardless of weak bubble and "big wins."

Even if the committee looks at RPI less... taking the same team to be the only 70+ RPI team that many thought should not have gotten in previous year regardless of results... who has be horrific on the road / neutral this year... and this year has an RPI rating closer to 80 is not likely at all.

 

[cuseattle]

NCAA basketball tournament selection process - Wikipedia

For some personal clarification about the significance of RPI, I googled NCAA D1 tournament criteria. This wiki page is pretty good.

 

[Brooky03]

NCAA basketball tournament selection process - Wikipedia

For some personal clarification about the significance of RPI, I googled NCAA D1 tournament criteria. This wiki page is pretty good.

I read this and felt good: The RPI rating is often considered a factor in selecting and seeding the final few teams in the tournament field. However, the NCAA selection committee in 2015 said the RPI is only utilized for grouping the teams into groups such as top 50 and top 100 teams, to value the wins and losses, and not as a factor for selection

I read this and the good feeling went away: Additionally, committee members consider how teams do on the road and at neutral courts

 

[AZcuse77]

NCAA basketball tournament selection process - Wikipedia

For some personal clarification about the significance of RPI, I googled NCAA D1 tournament criteria. This wiki page is pretty good.

I've read this before but also read it's just used "less" and other metrics are now considered. Regardless one more win means 18-15 record 2-10 on road and an RPI of almost 10 spots worse than any team to ever get in (which was SU).

I think we need 19 wins to have a legit shot. If we lose to GT then win two in tourney to go 19-15 instead of 19-14 (beat GT Win 1 in tourney) that might be enough too with our quality wins.

 

[cuseattle]

I've read this before but also read it's just used "less" and other metrics are now considered. Regardless one more win means 18-15 record 2-10 on road and an RPI of almost 10 spots worse than any team to ever get in (which was SU).

I think we need 19 wins to have a legit shot. If we lose to GT then win two in tourney to go 19-15 instead of 19-14 (beat GT Win 1 in tourney) that might be enough too with our quality wins.

That dreaded eye test is right up there with the RPI. 15 losses would not look good to many eyes.
Hey, but... A month or so ago we all would have been thrilled for the opportunity right now. Just win baby!

 

[cuse522]

It looks like we could potentially get into the low 60s in RPI if we go 2-1, depending on who we get. W vs. GT, W vs Virginia Tech, L vs UNC gets us to 69 with the #35 Strength of Schedule. 19-14, #69 RPI, #35 SOS, 7-8 vs. Top 50... That's gotta be a mortal lock.

I am starting to think maybe our odds if we lose the next two are less than the 50-50 I've been saying, after digging deeper into the RPI implications and other teams' RPI... Maybe 35/65. I still think we're fine with one win, though. 85-90% range.

 

[Briancuse]

Lose to Georgia Tech and lose vs Virginia Tech in first round of ACC.

View attachment 90483

This one frightens the hell out of me. As said a few times, I am not a person that gets very worked up by a higher RPI as long as it within reason - they will look at other stuff. #99 however is not reasonable enough.

Doesn't frighten me, we won't be in the discussion with those numbers, nothing even to sweat.

 

[AZcuse77]

It looks like we could potentially get into the low 60s in RPI if we go 2-1, depending on who we get. W vs. GT, W vs Virginia Tech, L vs UNC gets us to 69 with the #35 Strength of Schedule. 19-14, #69 RPI, #35 SOS, 7-8 vs. Top 50... That's gotta be a mortal lock.

I am starting to think maybe our odds if we lose the next two are less than the 50-50 I've been saying, after digging deeper into the RPI implications and other teams' RPI... Maybe 35/65. I still think we're fine with one win, though. 85-90% range.

We're going to have to agree to disagree that 18-15 with an RPI ~80 gives us a 85-90% chance of being in... It is interesting/flawed that who we lose to in the second round does have some RPI impact.

There is actually another scenario I hadn't thought of. We don't have a first round bye locked up yet (currently we are #9 the last single bye slot). If we go 9-9 and GT bumps us out of the bye slot (or a 3-way 9-9 scenario that we lost tiebreaker) we could fall to the first round of ACC tournament...

Strangely... this would mean we get a 3rd game with 9-20 Boston College which might add a win (well hopefully) but might also drop our RPI despite the win for playing the #210 team. It could also mean us winning the next two rounds gets us to 20 wins at 20-15. Winning just in the second round gets us to 19-15 but against two lower ranked teams and probably still ~80 RPI.

I really dislike the double bye system. This year a 9-9 team may have to win 5 games in 5 days which is pretty impossible(I think UConn is only one ever to do it). 6 teams are in that spot and really have no chance despite some very talented teams. It's all just to protect the blue bloods from getting tired out before the NCAA tournament.

 

[jncuse]

We're going to have to agree to disagree that 18-15 with an RPI ~80 gives us a 85-90% chance of being in... It is interesting/flawed that who we lose to in the second round does have some RPI impact.

There is actually another scenario I hadn't thought of. We don't have a first round bye locked up yet (currently we are #9 the last single bye slot). If we go 9-9 and GT bumps us out of the bye slot (or a 3-way 9-9 scenario that we lost tiebreaker) we could fall to the first round of ACC tournament...

Strangely... this would mean we get a 3rd game with 9-20 Boston College which might add a win (well hopefully) but might also drop our RPI despite the win for playing the #210 team. It could also mean us winning the next two rounds gets us to 20 wins at 20-15. Winning just in the second round gets us to 19-15 but against two lower ranked teams and probably still ~80 RPI.

I really dislike the double bye system. This year a 9-9 team may have to win 5 games in 5 days which is pretty impossible(I think UConn is only one ever to do it). 6 teams are in that spot and really have no chance despite some very talented teams. It's all just to protect the blue bloods from getting tired out before the NCAA tournament.

Boston College is a ZERO game. It will have no positive impact on our resume. It could only hurt us if we lose. I would rather just avoid that game and not get tired from it.

 

[AZcuse77]

Boston College is a ZERO game. It will have no positive impact on our resume. It could only hurt us if we lose. I would rather just avoid that game and not get tired from it.

I agree... other than beating >200 RPI teams I believe can actually hurt your RPI (not much at this point) and that the visual of a 20 win season could help if we get to the semi-finals. The odds of us losing to GT at home are about 10-20% anyways but you never know.