Runs and Bases - after August | Syracusefan.com

Runs and Bases - after August

SWC75

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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.

The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.052. That’s better than Bryce Harper 0.878) but not as good as Ryon Healy (1.082). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,052 times. He didn’t do something 1.052 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.

My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?

The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs produced”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game. That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.

This year I’ve decided to add a few other stats, one of which will allow me to evaluate pitchers, too. The first one I’m calling “clutch percentage”. I’m aware that many people in baseball don’t think there is such a thing as clutch hitting. I don’t agree: I watch the games and it is completely apparent that it’s not just what you do but when you do it that counts. I’m a Mets fan and noticed that Wilson Ramos was, by most measures, having a poor season:.247 batting average, .313 on base percentage, .303 slugging percentage. But he had 17 RBIs compared to 27 total bases. Divide the RBIs by total bases and his bat is driving in 63% as many runs as it’s procuring based. Mike Trout has 16 RBIs on 48 batting bases, 33%. It’s very early and the numbers can change greatly but so far Ramos would seem to be a better clutch hitter than Trout.

I’ve always wanted to do something to evaluate pitchers. When I look at a box score, (and I’ve had occasion lately to look at Mets box scores to try to figure out the pitching), I look at the ‘BF’ (batters faced) on Baseball Reference.com. Then I look at hits, walks and hit batsmen to get the number of baserunners that were the pitcher’s fault. I divide that by the BF to get the percentage of batters that get on base off the pitcher. Then I look at earned runs and compare that to the number of these ‘earned’ baserunners. What percentage of them scored? Last year Jacob DeGrom faced 835 batters, 203 of whom reached base from hits, walks or being plunked. That’s 24.3%, or .243. That was best in the national league and second best in the majors to Justin Verlander of the Astros who had .241. Jake allowed 421 earned runs from those 203 earned baserunners, or .202, the best in the majors, (Blake Snell and Trevor Bauer led the AL .215.

My data base is the top 50 players in each league in runs scored and runs batted in and the top 50 pitchers in innings pitched. For the batters, ties are broken first by games played, the n by plate appearances, (the fewer of each you have, the more impressive your gross bases and runs produced are. The more you have the more impressive a clutch percentage is: you’ve maintained it longer). Pitching ties are broken by innings pitched, (the more innings you’ve pitched, the more impressive a low rate of giving up baserunners and runs is.) If there is a tie for 10th place all those tied will be listed.


AFTER AUGUST

AL

Bases Produced
Mike Trout, Angels 440 in 128 games (3.44) and 580 plate appearances (.759)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 375 in 134 games (2.80) and 634 plate appearances (.591)
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 369 in 132 games (2.82) and 594 plate appearances (.621)
Alex Bregman, Astros 368 in 131 games (2.81) and 585 plate appearances (.629)
Carlos Santana, Indians 364 in 133 games (2.74) and 577 plate appearances (.631)
Rafael Devers, Red Sox 363 in 132 games (2.75) and 591 plate appearances (.614)
J. D. Martinez, Red Sox 350 in 124 games (2.82) and 564 plate appearances (.621)
Jorge Polanco, Twins 326 in 129 games (2.53) and 602 plate appearances (.542)
Whit Merrifield, Royals 326 in 137 games (2.38) and 623 plate appearances (.523)
Max Kepler Twins 322 in 123 games (2.62) and 555 plate appearances (.580)

Comments: Not much change here. Even with his injury troubles, Mike Trout will be the MVP.


Runs Produced
Rafael Devers, Red Sox 188 in 132 games (1.42) and 591 plate appearances (.318)
J. D. Martinez, Red Sox 177 in 124 games (1.43) and 564 plate appearances (.314)
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 171 in 132 games (1.30) and 594 plate appearances (.288)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 169 in 134 games (1.26) and 634 plate appearances (.267)
Alex Bregman, Astros 166 in 131 games (1.27) and 585 plate appearances (.284)
Mike Trout, Angels 163 in 128 games (1.27) and 580 plate appearances (.281)
DJ LeMahieu, Yankees 161 in 123 games (1.31) and 554 plate appearances (.291)
Yuli Gurriel, Astros 148 in 127 games (1.17) and 544 plate appearances (.272)
Carlos Santana, Indians 147 in 133 games (1.11) and 577 plate appearances (.255)
Max Kepler Twins 146 in 123 games (1.19) and 555 plate appearances (.263)
Marcus Siemen, Athletics 146 in 136 games (1.07) and 628 plate appearances (.232)

Comments: The Red Sox didn’t come up short this year because of their hitting.

Clutch Percentage
Albert Pujols, Angels 82 RBI from 179 batting bases = .458
Yordan Alvarez, Astros 62 RBI from 156 batting bases = .397
Rougned Odor, Rangers 68 RBI from 172 batting bases = .395
Eddie Rosario, Twins 91 RBI from 234 batting bases = .389
Edwin Encarnacion, SEA/NY 76 RBI from 199 batting bases = .382
Jose Abreu, White Sox 102 RBI from 268 batting bases = .381
Daniel Vogelbach, Seattle 70 RBI from 187 batting bases = .3743315
Nelson Cruz, Twins 89 RBI from 238 batting bases = .3739495
C. J. Cron, Twins 75 RBI from 201 batting bases = .3731343
Jurickson Profar, Athletics 59 RBI from 161 batting bases = .3664596
Gary Sanchez, Yankees 71 RBI from 194 batting bases = .3659793

Comments: There’s still some thunder in Albert’s old bat.


Pitcher’s On Base Percentage
Justin Verlander, Astros 154 baserunners of 704 batters faced = .219
Ryan Yarborough, Rays 106 baserunners of 445 batters faced = .238
Gerrit Cole, Astros 165 baserunners of 665 batters faced = .248
Shane Bieber, Indians 189 baserunners of 722 batters faced = .262
Yonny Chirinos, Rays 137 baserunners of 504 batters faced = .272
Lucas Golito, White Sox 177 baserunners of 633 batters faced = .280
Charlie Morton, Rays 188 baserunners of 669 batters faced = .281
Chris Sale, Red Sox 173 baserunners of 612 batters faced = .283
Domingo German, Yankees 156 baserunners of 550 batters faced = .284
John Means, Orioles 149 baserunners of 516 batters faced = .289

Comments: Verlander, at age 36, is the best picture in the league.

Pitcher’s Scoring Percentage
Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays 41 earned runs from 153 baserunners = .2679738
Wade Miley, Astros 53 earned runs from 194 baserunners = .273
Mike Minor, Rangers 63 earned runs from 217 baserunners = .290
Charlie Morton, Rays 57 earned runs from 188 baserunners = .303
Spencer Turnbull, Tigers 56 earned runs from 181 baserunners = .309
Jake Odorizzi, Twins 54 earned runs from 174 baserunners = .310
Jose Berrios, Twins 67 earned runs from 215 baserunners = .312
Mike Piers, Athletics 62 earned runs from 198 baserunners = .313
Lucas Golito, White Sox 56 earned runs from 177 baserunners = .316
Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox 73 earned runs from 230 baserunners = .317

Comments: Stroman, now with the Mets, was still among the top 50 in the American league in batters faced at the end of August. He won’t be when the season ends and will disappear from this list.


NL

Bases Produced
Christian Yelich, Brewers 404 in 121 games (3.34) and 541 plate appearances (.747)
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers 402 in 133 games (3.02) and 566 plate appearances (.710)
Ronald Acuna, Braves 381 in 136 games (2.80) and 629 plate appearances (.606)
Freddie Freeman, Braves 379 in 136 games (2.79) and 607 plate appearances (.624)
Juan Soto, Nationals 354 in 123 games (2.88) and 546 plate appearances (.648)
Josh Bell, Pirates 351 in 132 games (2.66) and 569 plate appearances (.617)
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 350 in 128 games (2.73) and 621 plate appearances (.564)
Pete Alonso, Mets 349 in 134 games (2.60) and 575 plate appearances (.607)
Anthony Rendon, Nationals 347 in 120 games (2.89) and 531 plate appearances (.653)
Trevor Story, Rockies 345 in 123 games (2.80) and 556 plate appearances (.621)

Comments: Christian Yelich will fall down the standings in this category but the MVP voters should look at his rate of production.


Runs Produced
Freddie Freeman, Braves 178 in 136 games (1.31) and 607 plate appearances (.293)
Anthony Rendon, Nationals 178 in 120 games (1.48) and 531 plate appearances (.335)
Josh Bell, Pirates 165 in 132 games (1.25) and 569 plate appearances (.290)
Ronald Acuna, Braves 163 in 136 games (1.20) and 629 plate appearances (.259)
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers 163 in 133 games (1.23) and 566 plate appearances (.288)
Eduardo Escobar, D-Backs 161 in 133 games (1.21) and 589 plate appearances (.273)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 160 in 134 games (1.19) and 571 plate appearances (.280)
Juan Soto, Nationals 154 in 123 games (1.25) and 546 plate appearances (.282)
Bryce Harper, Phillies 152 in 130 games (1.17) and 576 plate appearances (.264)
Starling Marte, Pirates 149 in 125 games (1.19) and 565 plate appearances (.264)

Comments: Yelich didn’t make this cut with 142 runs produced. His rates were 1.17 per game and .262 per plate appearance. People are talking about the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers but watch out for the Braves, who are now 93-59 with Ocuna and Freeman in their line-up.


Clutch Percentage
Colin Moran, Pirates 76 RBI from 181 batting bases = .420
Daniel Murphy, Rockies 70 RBI from 174 batting bases = .402
Bryce Harper, Phillies 97 RBI from 243 batting bases = .399
Ryan McMahon, Rockies 73 RBI from 189 batting bases = .395
Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals 77 RBI from 196 batting bases = .393
Josh Bell, Pirates 109 RBI from 284 batting bases = .384
Eduardo Escobar, D-Backs 109 RBI from 285 batting bases = .3824561
Wilson Ramos, Mets 66 RBI from 173 batting bases = .3815028
Eric Hosmer, Padres 89 RBI from 235 batting bases = .379
Anthony Rendon, Nationals 109 RBI from 289 batting bases = .377

Comments: Wilson Ramos reappears on this list. The controversy over Noah Syndergaard not wanting to pitch to him is interesting. Would a pitcher rather have a catcher who chooses and catches his pitches well or one who hits the other pitcher’s pitches into the outfield?


Pitcher’s On Base Percentage
Zach Greinke, D-Backs 141 baserunners of 562 batters faced = .251
Chris Paddack, Padres 132 baserunners of 507 batters faced = .260
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 159 baserunners of 609 batters faced = .261
Walker Buehler, Dodgers 163 baserunners of 620 batters faced = .2629032
Jacob DeGrom, Mets 178 baserunners of 676 batters faced = .2633136
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers 165 baserunners of 626 batters faced = .2635782
Max Scherzer, Nationals 152 baserunners of 572 batters faced = .266
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals 195 baserunners of 722 batters faced = .270
Kenta Maeda, Dodgers 156 baserunners of 565 batters faced = .2761061
Jack Flaherty, Cardinals 171 baserunners of 619 batters faced = .2762520

Comments: You can see why the Dodgers have the best record in the league. Weren’t my Mets supposed to have a rotation like that?


Pitcher’s Scoring Percentage
Mike Soroka, Braves 40 earned runs from 168 baserunners = .238
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers 41 earned runs from 165 baserunners = .248
Max Scherzer, Nationals 39 earned runs from 152 baserunners = .257
Dakota Hudson, Cardinals 58 earned runs from 222 baserunners = .261
Julio Teheran, Braves 57 earned runs from 211 baserunners = .270
Sonny Gray, Reds 47 earned runs from 173 baserunners = .272
Jacob DeGrom, Mets 50 earned runs from 178 baserunners = .281
Luis Castillo, Reds 57 earned runs from 189 baserunners = .3015873
Cole Hamels, Cubs 52 earned runs from 172 baserunners = .3023255
Zach Davies, Brewers 57 earned runs from 188 baserunners = .3031914
Aaron Nola, Phillies 67 earned runs from 221 baserunners = .3031674

Comments: DeGrom’s had a good follow-up year to his Cy Young season, (even though the Mets still don’t score runs for him). But this year it will belong to Mr. Ryu.
 

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