Schedule and future opportunities

[DomeHolmes]

Based on the last few results, I am cautiously optimistic about our chances of making the tournament. However, we already got screwed once with Donnies injury costing us probably two wins.

We face another obstacle, not of our doing, our schedule.

After Boston College, we have nine games in a row that are quad one or two opportunities, but four are quad 1 and five quad 2. However if our schedule was reversed and home games were away and vice versa, 8-9 would be quad one and if NCST moves up 1 spot, 9-9 would be quad 1! If we won four, that plus a Tennessee win would give us five Q1 wins. And on paper a good resume. The way the schedule lays out is unfortunate and another reason to question the fairness of the quad systems.

Additionally, our four toughest games, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, and NC State would all be home.

One more note. Hofstra is ranked #82 so likely no where near a disastrous loss when comparing “bad losses” of bubble teams.

 

[orange79]

Based on the last few results, I am cautiously optimistic about our chances of making the tournament. However, we already got screwed once with Donnies injury costing us probably two wins.

We face another obstacle, not of our doing, our schedule.

After Boston College, we have nine games in a row that are quad one or two opportunities, but four are quad 1 and five quad 2. However if our schedule was reversed and home games were away and give versa, 8-9 would be quad one and if NCST moves up 1 spot, 9-9 would be quad 1! If we won four, that plus a Tennessee win would give us five Q1 wins. And on paper a good resume. The way the schedule lays out is unfortunate and another reason to question the fairness of the quad systems.

Additionally, our four toughest games, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, and NC State would all be home.

One more note. Hofstra is ranked #82 so likely no where near a disastrous loss when comparing “bad losses” of bubble teams.

Good points.

But, using today's NET rankings, it actually is 12 games in a row that are Q1/Q2 opportunities.

 

[OrangeinNH]

Let’s do it, it’s winning time. If we deserve to be in the tournament, it’s time to prove it. Would always rather be a team building momentum throughout the year. There are no excuses at this point as we are fully healthy at the moment, let’s go!

 

[Brooky03]

This is why I was so confused with all the doom and gloom around our NET and the idea that we were at the bottom of a 20ft hole with no ladder. It seemed obvious that the ACC schedule would offer a ton of chances at quad 1 and 2 wins.

 

[upperdeck]

If we had played well and won Houston/Hofstra sure our Net would be much higher now. But we would still need to win a decent amount of these games coming up.

 

[DomeHolmes]

Good points.

But, using today's NET rankings, it actually is 12 games in a row that are Q1/2

True. I was focused on the stretch that hurt us the most

 

[Jake]

The two Saturday afternoon games at home against SMU and North Carolina are absolutely huge. Those are two scalps that we can get that would help our résumé.

 

[RedtheGOB]

There are 3 paths imo. This of course is considering we win the next 2. That's a 4-1 ACC start (and don't stub our toes against Pitt at home in the finale). 5-1 against the bottom which is non-negotiable.

1. Beat the rest of the ACC Bubble. 8 teams getting in from ACC. Duke/UNC/UVA/Louisville are locks. That leaves 4 more ACC teams getting in. Clemson hopefully keeps winning, they stay Q1 and are the 5th team in.

That means we have to finish with a better resume than 3 of these teams. NCst/SMU/Miami/VT/WF/Cal/ND. 6-1 / 5-2 even should be enough. ND and Cal could really hurt us losing those at home. See #2 if that happens.

2. Steal Wins from the top. If we play up and down against the bubble, let's just say we have a losing or 500 record against the 7 teams above then we have steal two games out of 5 from the top 4 in the ACC.

I think people will be shocked how much not just our net but all other metrics will jump with just 1 road win against 1 of these teams.

3. Make noise in the ACCT. Given the ACC overall is just much better in years past basically any team we play initially will be Q2 at worst and likely another Q1 chance. 1 win but for sure 2 wins will go a long way this year. The top 8 seeds in the ACCT will all be Q1 opponents, the bottom 7 will be Q2.

 

[Cusefan0307]

5 of the next 6 games are extremely important. We cannot afford to lose more than 1. That said it’s an uphill battle to get excited at anything less than a 7 seed if we make it.

 

[Scooch]

Before conference play started people said 12-6/11-7 was necessary. Seems like nothing has changed.

We had to win all 4 of GaTech/Pitt/FSU/BC and we're halfway there.

That leaves 13 games after BC where we must go at least 7-6. We're going to have to beat somebody(s) in the ACC who's good at some point. The home/away of it all is what it is.

Beat good teams, make the tourney isn't a Herculean task. If we're good we'll do it, if we're not we won't. Talent is there.

 

[DomeHolmes]

5 of the next 6 games are extremely important. We cannot afford to lose more than 1. That said it’s an uphill battle to get excited at anything less than a 7 seed if we make it.

I understand your point, but a 11 seed is a better seed to get to the sweet 16 than an 8 or 9 seed. 11 vs 6 games are very winnable. Then playing some one other than Arizona, ISU, Michigan, Duke, Yukon, Gonzaga, Houston, etc. 7 seed gets you a 2 seed next game.

If your not a top 4 seed, just get in.