SWC75
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It is time to figure out my picks for the 2023 NCAA tournament. Again, my goal is not to prove that I am a college basketball savant, but just to have a sheet in somewhere to make watching all the games a little more interesting and to spend as little time as possible in figuring it out because I have a life. I use my NCAA Seed Stats information and my “Against Ranked Teams” system. I’m also reading what Jay Bilas says on ESPN.
syracusefan.com
Jay Bilas picks every single game in the NCAA men's basketball tournament
Step 1: pick every #1 and #2 seed to win in the first round. That happens 99% of the time and 93% of the time, respectively. If you land one of the 11 exceptions there have been in 37 years, the team that pulls off the upset isn’t like to go far and few other people will have picked it. This gives you 8 of the 63 decisions you are going to have to make right off the bat.
Step 2: Pick one #12 seed, one #13 seed and one #14 seed to win because, per the historical averages, That’s what’s happened. Pick the ones that seem to have the best chance.
Step 3: For the first time ever, the #11 seeds now average two wins. The #6 seeds have won 61.5% of the time X 4 games = 2.46, which is under 2.5 wins. You round 2.46 down, not up. You also pick two #10 seeds and two #9 seeds to win, meaning instead of picking 8 first round upsets, the average in now 9. Now you’ve picked 32 of the 63 games.
Step 4: What’s your final four? The historical average is two #1 seeds, a #2 seed and someone lower. (82% of the time that will be a #4 seed or above.) Fill in the games they’d have to win.
Step 5: Who is your national champion? Who will they beat? Fill out the Final Four.
Step 6: Fill out any remaining games. You could try to figure them out for yourselves or you could use some objective measure, such as chalk, the polls, the NET rankings, Sagarin or something else. I decided five years back to use my “Against Ranked teams” points, basing it on how teams did against the best teams they played. My sheets have looked somewhat better then they did when I opted to read about every team and divine each result. That doesn’t mean that I can’t make a hunch here or there or chose something I would like to happen over that the data suggests will happen.
Jim Boeheim pointed out the problem with the NET rankings: team’s reputations get established in the non-conference games. Once they enter conference play, their rankings don’t change much because the conference teams just play each other. There’s no accounting for how a team or a league might have improved. Last year the Big Ten was supposed to be great and the ACC terrible but the ACC had the best record in the tournament, putting 2 teams in the Final Four and three in the Elite Eight. But if you don’t know how much teams or leagues may have improved, either does anyone else. It impacts whatever rankings you choose to inform your decision. That’s what makes it interesting. But don’t waste too much of your life trying to figure it out. Having another viewpoint like Jay’s to mix in with your thinking is like the dressing you put on the salad.
EAST
#1 Purdue over the #16 Texas Southern-Fairleigh Dickinson winner, (I’d guess Texas Southern: the SWAC is better than the Northeast Conference).
#2 Marquette over #15 Vermont (I think – and hope).
None of the #3 seeds look like losers to me. They never do but, on average, one of them goes down. By the differential Against Ranked Teams, Gonzaga is the most vulnerable, +86 over Grand Canyon in the West. But can you picture the Zags losing to Grand Canyon? (Maybe getting lost in Grand Canyon.) Next is Baylor +105 over UC Santa Barbara in the South, Kansas State +151 over Montana State here in the East and Xavier +161 over Kennesaw State. Bilas feels that Baylor might have the best backcourt in the country. Offensively they look much like their national champions of two years ago, although they aren’t as good defensively. He thinks those guards will win the day. He says Montana “Struggles to both shoot and defend the 3-ball (below average in 3P% on offense and defense) ... not exactly the profile of a team to shock the world.” Xavier is missing star forward Zach Freemantle and Bilas is impressed with Kennesaw State: “Kennesaw State is physically strong and can take contact and play through it.” I’ll go with them as my 14th seed upset.
#3 Kansas State over #14 Montana
The #4-#13 games look more interesting. My ART system has Connecticut just +63 over Iona, coached by Rick Pitino. Virginia is +81 over Furman, Indiana +95 over a 28-6 Kent State team and Tennessee +120 over Louisiana. Like a lot of people I like Pitino’s chances to pull off what would be a delicious upset. I can’t resist it.
#4 Tennessee over #13 Louisiana
#5 27-6 San Diego State only has +8 ART while their #12 opponent in the South, 31-3 Charleston has #12. That makes it an obvious choice for my upset at this level, over St. Mary’s +58 over VCU, U of Miami +63 over Drake and Duke +77 over Oral Roberts.
#5 Duke over #12 Oral Roberts
The Big 12 teams have been accruing points by playing each other after so many of them got ranked early in the year. That’s shown in the ART’s at the #6-#11 level. By far the closest one is Kentucky +7 over Providence. Creighton is +70 over NC State. Texas Christian is +123 over Arizona State, (who I think they will play rather than Nevada-Reno who they would be +185). Iowa State is +222 over Mississippi State and +261 over Pittsburgh, (I wouldn’t rule out the Panthers vs. Bulldogs). We may find out that those Big 12 teams aren’t as invincible as they look but they have had plenty of experience against top teams. I’ll go with the Friars and the Wolfpack to pull off the upsets.
#11 Providence to upset #6 Kentucky.
Texas A&M is +27 over Penn State at the 7-10 level. (Remember when we used to be better than Penn State in basketball?) Northwestern is not a familiar face in the NCAAs but neither is Boise State. The Wildcats are +37. Michigan State is +73 over USC and Missouri is +117 Utah State. I’ll swallow my Orange Pride and pick Penn State but I’m not quite convinced the Spartans are better than the Trojans. We could ask Odysseus, but I’ll settle for Jay Bilas: “The Spartans are primarily a jump-shooting team, and they run great offense…In fact, over the last three games of the regular season, Michigan State shot a ridiculous 57% from 3-point range as a team. Michigan State is in the top 10 in the nation in 3-point accuracy, largely because this is a good passing team…This is not Tom Izzo's most powerful rebounding or transition team, but this group has proven resilient and worthy…And this is not a typical Spartan team that hammers you on the glass. Michigan State does not force turnovers, making opponents cough it up on under 15% of possessions, ranking near the very bottom of Division I, not just teams that are dancing.” The Trojans have ‘Boogie‘ Ellis and “A fringe top-50 offense and defense ... not bad for this seed line.” Tom Izzo’s program has fallen off a bit the least few years and I just have a feeling about this one. I like USC’s chances better than Boise State.
#10 Southern California will upset Michigan State
Three of the four #9s have more ART points than their #8 opponents. Illinois is +70 over Arkansas, Auburn +48 over Iowa and West Virginia +5 over Maryland. However #8 Memphis is #117 over Florida Atlantic, a team that has played no ranked teams but has a 31-3 record. I’ll go with Illinois and Auburn to complete my first round.
#8 Memphis over #9 Florida Atlantic
Now, I need to pick two #1 seeds to make the Final Four and be joined by a #2 seed and a #3 or #4 seed. I remember when Houston went to two straight Final Fours in 1967-68 and three straight in 1982-84 and came up empty each time. Their 1968 team was 31-0 and ranked #1 with Elvin Hayes as their star. They’d already beaten UCLA 71-69 in the Astrodome and had scored 100 points or more 13 times. But the Bruins, behind Lew Alcindor, (Kareem Abdul-Jabber), gained a terrible revenge, 101-69. In 1983, Phi Slamma Jama with Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler was 30-2 with 26 wins in a row, having not lost since we and Ralph Sampson’s Virginia team beat them in December. The struggled to take control of the title game against NC State but finally did so only to have Coach Guy Lewis decided to “slow it down” because his team was playing at altitude in Albuquerque. The Wolfpack howled back and won it on Lorenzo Charles dunk. After three decades of mediocrity, they have come back, making the Final Four after beating us two years ago and now becoming a #1 seed this year with a 30-3 record. Is it time for them to finally win it all?
A problem is that the team with the highest ART of all, (+279: Houston is just +44) is Texas, who have recently twice crushed he West’s #1 seed, Kansas this month: 75-69 and 76-56 to win the Big 12 tournament. That makes the Jayhawks, (+190) seem like a weak #1 seed and their #2, UCLA, (+113) has been pretty good. The East’s #1 is Purdue, (just +50) and #2 is Marquette (+146). But Purdue has the big guy, skilled 7-4 285 center Zach Edey (22.3p 12.8r), the national player of the year. What did Mr. Bilas say about them? “Purdue is not super athletic at the guard spots and the wings. The Boilermakers are not the type of team that takes chances defensively, and they do not force turnovers. And the Boilermakers are not a transition team, but a deliberate, time-consuming team. Purdue is not in the top 300 in pace, using almost 20 seconds of clock per offensive possession. Slower tempo can mean more close games and more close games can mean a potential loss. A team that is super athletic and can press can give Purdue problems.” They are facing a Shaka Smart team that wins with “passing ability, turnover margin, generating easy baskets”. The Big Ten has not been strong in recent tournaments and Purdue has made the Final Four just once in an otherwise successful basketball history – They got blown out by Alcindor’s UCLA team in his last collegiate game, 54 years ago. Nobody wants Alabama, (+173) to make it to the Final Four and #2 Arizona (+161) was just kind of lurking in the Pac 12 until they beat UCLA in the conference final. But Jay has them winning it all. He likes their front court a lot. His only complaint is that their defense has been inconsistent, not a good thing if you want to win 6 in a row in the NCAAT. Alabama, (+173) still has 6-9 Brandon Miller, one of the best players in the country. They may have come together in the face of all the controversy. ‘Bama vs. the world!
I have a hard time seeing #4 Virginia or #3 Baylor, (a team with 10 losses) as Final Four teams from the South. Tennessee has looked very good at times this year but they too have 10 losses. Kansas State doesn’t excite me. They are #4 and #3 in the East. I have Kennesaw knocking off #3 Xavier in the Midwest and Indiana, (11 losses) doesn’t do much for me. I also have Iona beating #4 UCONN in the West, leaving #3 Gonzaga, a team Bilas says are “a bit like Duke...it took them longer than normal to figure things out, but the Zags are playing well” and which owns victories over Michigan State, Kentucky, Alabama, Xavier and Saint Mary's. I think I’ll pick them as my none 1-2 seed in the Final Four. I’ll go with Alabama and Purdue as my #1 seeds and Texas as the #2 seed. That gives me a dozen more games predicted.
Now I’ve got to have my two 9 seed winners, (Auburn and Illinois), lost in the round of 32 to the #1 seed. One of the #10 seeds should go to the Sweet 16. Penn State can’t beat Texas as I’ve got them in the Final Four. So it’s got to be USC over Marquette. One of the #11 seeds has to go to the Sweet 16. That means that either NC State beats Baylor or Providence beats K-State. I don’t really see either but I have a feeling Baylor will out-score the Wolfpack so I’ll go with the Friars. USC would then beat them and lose to Purdue. The other first round cinderelllas go home in a pumpkin in the round of 32.
That leaves me with one game in the East region still to be picked: Tennessee vs. Duke, which will be very interesting. The Vols have had some great performances, beating Kansas by 14 points, Mississippi State by 34, South Carolina by 42 and 40, Texas by 11, Alabama by 9, etc. but they’ve also lost 7 of their last 12 games. Duke, as we know struggled early but are playing very well right now. I’ll go with Duke.
#1 Purdue over #8 Memphis
#5 Duke over #4 Tennessee
#11 Providence upsets #3 Kansas State
#10 Southern California upsets #2 Marquette
#1 Purdue over #4 Duke
#10 Southern California over #11 Providence
#1 Purdue over #10 Southern California
SOUTH
#1 Alabama over #16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi or SE Missouri, (I’ll go with TAM-CC).
#2 Arizona over #15 Princeton
#3 Baylor over #14 UC-Santa Barbara
#4 Virginia over #13 Furman
#12 Charleston will upset #5 San Diego State
#11 North Carolina State will upset #6 Creighton
#7 Missouri over #10 Utah State
#8 Maryland over #9 West Virginia
#1 Alabama over #8 Maryland
#3 Baylor over #11 North Carolina State
I still have three games to pick here: I’ll take Virginia over Charleston and I think Arizona will give Alabama a great game in the regional final.
#4 Virginia over #12 Charleston
#2 Arizona over #7 Missouri
#1 Alabama over #4 Virginia
#2 Arizona over #3 Baylor
#1 Alabama over #2 Arizona
MIDWEST (Why don’t they call it the NORTH?)
#1 Houston over #16 Northern Kentucky
#2 Texas over #15 Colgate, (they were #14 the last two years -why demote them?)
#14 Kennesaw State will upset #3 Xavier
#4 Indiana over #13 Kent State
#5 U of Miami over #12 Drake
#6 Iowa State over #11 Mississippi State
#10 Penn State will upset #7 Texas A&M
#9 Auburn over #9 Iowa
#1 Houston over #9 Auburn
#6 Iowa State over #14 Kennesaw State
#2 Texas over #10 Penn State
#2 Texas over #6 Iowa State
That leaves two other games to pick. I think U of Miami will handle Indiana and, since I don’t have Houston in my Final Four, I’ll give the Canes with their pressure defense, a win over #1 seed Houston before losing to Texas, (they went to the Elite 8 last year, as well).
#5 U of Miami over #4 Indiana
#5 U of Miami over #1 Houston
#2 Texas over #5 U of Miami
WEST
#1 Kansas over #16 Howard
#2 UCLA over #15 UNC-Ashville
#3 Gonzaga over #14 Grand Canyon (The Zags have been to 17 straight Sweet 16s – 17!)
#13 Iona will upset #4 Connecticut (Why is this in the West?)
#5 St. Mary’s over #12 Virginia Commonwealth
#6 Texas Christian over #11 Arizona State or Nevada-Reno
#7 Northwestern over #10 Boise State
#9 Illinois over #9 Arkansas (The Illini looked pretty good to me.)
#1 Kansas over #9 Illinois (But not that good.)
#5 St. Mary’s over #13 Iona
#3 Gonzaga over #6 Texas Christian
That leaves two games to choose: I’ll take UCLA over Northwestern and Kansas over St. Mary’s.
#2 UCLA over #7 Northwestern
#1 Kansas over #2 St. Mary’s
#3 Gonzaga over #1 Kansas
So My Final Four is Alabama vs. Purdue and Texas vs. Gonzaga. I’m going with Alabama’s overall talent and athleticism to overcome Purdue’s giant while Brandon Miller has a big game. The up and coming Zags will overcome Texas and then in what will be perceived by the public as the Good Guys, (Gonzaga) vs. the bad guys, (Alabama), the Zags will finally win the championship they have so long sought after.
Alabama over Purdue
Gonzaga over Texas
Gonzaga over Alabama
Done, for another year.
NCAA Seed Stats
Well, folks, the time has come to fill out your NCAA bracket sheets, If you are like me, you have come to realize that there is no relationship to the amount of time you spend on your sheet and the quality of the results. One year, a friend of mine at work put a sheet on the floor and placed his...
syracusefan.com
Step 1: pick every #1 and #2 seed to win in the first round. That happens 99% of the time and 93% of the time, respectively. If you land one of the 11 exceptions there have been in 37 years, the team that pulls off the upset isn’t like to go far and few other people will have picked it. This gives you 8 of the 63 decisions you are going to have to make right off the bat.
Step 2: Pick one #12 seed, one #13 seed and one #14 seed to win because, per the historical averages, That’s what’s happened. Pick the ones that seem to have the best chance.
Step 3: For the first time ever, the #11 seeds now average two wins. The #6 seeds have won 61.5% of the time X 4 games = 2.46, which is under 2.5 wins. You round 2.46 down, not up. You also pick two #10 seeds and two #9 seeds to win, meaning instead of picking 8 first round upsets, the average in now 9. Now you’ve picked 32 of the 63 games.
Step 4: What’s your final four? The historical average is two #1 seeds, a #2 seed and someone lower. (82% of the time that will be a #4 seed or above.) Fill in the games they’d have to win.
Step 5: Who is your national champion? Who will they beat? Fill out the Final Four.
Step 6: Fill out any remaining games. You could try to figure them out for yourselves or you could use some objective measure, such as chalk, the polls, the NET rankings, Sagarin or something else. I decided five years back to use my “Against Ranked teams” points, basing it on how teams did against the best teams they played. My sheets have looked somewhat better then they did when I opted to read about every team and divine each result. That doesn’t mean that I can’t make a hunch here or there or chose something I would like to happen over that the data suggests will happen.
Jim Boeheim pointed out the problem with the NET rankings: team’s reputations get established in the non-conference games. Once they enter conference play, their rankings don’t change much because the conference teams just play each other. There’s no accounting for how a team or a league might have improved. Last year the Big Ten was supposed to be great and the ACC terrible but the ACC had the best record in the tournament, putting 2 teams in the Final Four and three in the Elite Eight. But if you don’t know how much teams or leagues may have improved, either does anyone else. It impacts whatever rankings you choose to inform your decision. That’s what makes it interesting. But don’t waste too much of your life trying to figure it out. Having another viewpoint like Jay’s to mix in with your thinking is like the dressing you put on the salad.
EAST
#1 Purdue over the #16 Texas Southern-Fairleigh Dickinson winner, (I’d guess Texas Southern: the SWAC is better than the Northeast Conference).
#2 Marquette over #15 Vermont (I think – and hope).
None of the #3 seeds look like losers to me. They never do but, on average, one of them goes down. By the differential Against Ranked Teams, Gonzaga is the most vulnerable, +86 over Grand Canyon in the West. But can you picture the Zags losing to Grand Canyon? (Maybe getting lost in Grand Canyon.) Next is Baylor +105 over UC Santa Barbara in the South, Kansas State +151 over Montana State here in the East and Xavier +161 over Kennesaw State. Bilas feels that Baylor might have the best backcourt in the country. Offensively they look much like their national champions of two years ago, although they aren’t as good defensively. He thinks those guards will win the day. He says Montana “Struggles to both shoot and defend the 3-ball (below average in 3P% on offense and defense) ... not exactly the profile of a team to shock the world.” Xavier is missing star forward Zach Freemantle and Bilas is impressed with Kennesaw State: “Kennesaw State is physically strong and can take contact and play through it.” I’ll go with them as my 14th seed upset.
#3 Kansas State over #14 Montana
The #4-#13 games look more interesting. My ART system has Connecticut just +63 over Iona, coached by Rick Pitino. Virginia is +81 over Furman, Indiana +95 over a 28-6 Kent State team and Tennessee +120 over Louisiana. Like a lot of people I like Pitino’s chances to pull off what would be a delicious upset. I can’t resist it.
#4 Tennessee over #13 Louisiana
#5 27-6 San Diego State only has +8 ART while their #12 opponent in the South, 31-3 Charleston has #12. That makes it an obvious choice for my upset at this level, over St. Mary’s +58 over VCU, U of Miami +63 over Drake and Duke +77 over Oral Roberts.
#5 Duke over #12 Oral Roberts
The Big 12 teams have been accruing points by playing each other after so many of them got ranked early in the year. That’s shown in the ART’s at the #6-#11 level. By far the closest one is Kentucky +7 over Providence. Creighton is +70 over NC State. Texas Christian is +123 over Arizona State, (who I think they will play rather than Nevada-Reno who they would be +185). Iowa State is +222 over Mississippi State and +261 over Pittsburgh, (I wouldn’t rule out the Panthers vs. Bulldogs). We may find out that those Big 12 teams aren’t as invincible as they look but they have had plenty of experience against top teams. I’ll go with the Friars and the Wolfpack to pull off the upsets.
#11 Providence to upset #6 Kentucky.
Texas A&M is +27 over Penn State at the 7-10 level. (Remember when we used to be better than Penn State in basketball?) Northwestern is not a familiar face in the NCAAs but neither is Boise State. The Wildcats are +37. Michigan State is +73 over USC and Missouri is +117 Utah State. I’ll swallow my Orange Pride and pick Penn State but I’m not quite convinced the Spartans are better than the Trojans. We could ask Odysseus, but I’ll settle for Jay Bilas: “The Spartans are primarily a jump-shooting team, and they run great offense…In fact, over the last three games of the regular season, Michigan State shot a ridiculous 57% from 3-point range as a team. Michigan State is in the top 10 in the nation in 3-point accuracy, largely because this is a good passing team…This is not Tom Izzo's most powerful rebounding or transition team, but this group has proven resilient and worthy…And this is not a typical Spartan team that hammers you on the glass. Michigan State does not force turnovers, making opponents cough it up on under 15% of possessions, ranking near the very bottom of Division I, not just teams that are dancing.” The Trojans have ‘Boogie‘ Ellis and “A fringe top-50 offense and defense ... not bad for this seed line.” Tom Izzo’s program has fallen off a bit the least few years and I just have a feeling about this one. I like USC’s chances better than Boise State.
#10 Southern California will upset Michigan State
Three of the four #9s have more ART points than their #8 opponents. Illinois is +70 over Arkansas, Auburn +48 over Iowa and West Virginia +5 over Maryland. However #8 Memphis is #117 over Florida Atlantic, a team that has played no ranked teams but has a 31-3 record. I’ll go with Illinois and Auburn to complete my first round.
#8 Memphis over #9 Florida Atlantic
Now, I need to pick two #1 seeds to make the Final Four and be joined by a #2 seed and a #3 or #4 seed. I remember when Houston went to two straight Final Fours in 1967-68 and three straight in 1982-84 and came up empty each time. Their 1968 team was 31-0 and ranked #1 with Elvin Hayes as their star. They’d already beaten UCLA 71-69 in the Astrodome and had scored 100 points or more 13 times. But the Bruins, behind Lew Alcindor, (Kareem Abdul-Jabber), gained a terrible revenge, 101-69. In 1983, Phi Slamma Jama with Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler was 30-2 with 26 wins in a row, having not lost since we and Ralph Sampson’s Virginia team beat them in December. The struggled to take control of the title game against NC State but finally did so only to have Coach Guy Lewis decided to “slow it down” because his team was playing at altitude in Albuquerque. The Wolfpack howled back and won it on Lorenzo Charles dunk. After three decades of mediocrity, they have come back, making the Final Four after beating us two years ago and now becoming a #1 seed this year with a 30-3 record. Is it time for them to finally win it all?
A problem is that the team with the highest ART of all, (+279: Houston is just +44) is Texas, who have recently twice crushed he West’s #1 seed, Kansas this month: 75-69 and 76-56 to win the Big 12 tournament. That makes the Jayhawks, (+190) seem like a weak #1 seed and their #2, UCLA, (+113) has been pretty good. The East’s #1 is Purdue, (just +50) and #2 is Marquette (+146). But Purdue has the big guy, skilled 7-4 285 center Zach Edey (22.3p 12.8r), the national player of the year. What did Mr. Bilas say about them? “Purdue is not super athletic at the guard spots and the wings. The Boilermakers are not the type of team that takes chances defensively, and they do not force turnovers. And the Boilermakers are not a transition team, but a deliberate, time-consuming team. Purdue is not in the top 300 in pace, using almost 20 seconds of clock per offensive possession. Slower tempo can mean more close games and more close games can mean a potential loss. A team that is super athletic and can press can give Purdue problems.” They are facing a Shaka Smart team that wins with “passing ability, turnover margin, generating easy baskets”. The Big Ten has not been strong in recent tournaments and Purdue has made the Final Four just once in an otherwise successful basketball history – They got blown out by Alcindor’s UCLA team in his last collegiate game, 54 years ago. Nobody wants Alabama, (+173) to make it to the Final Four and #2 Arizona (+161) was just kind of lurking in the Pac 12 until they beat UCLA in the conference final. But Jay has them winning it all. He likes their front court a lot. His only complaint is that their defense has been inconsistent, not a good thing if you want to win 6 in a row in the NCAAT. Alabama, (+173) still has 6-9 Brandon Miller, one of the best players in the country. They may have come together in the face of all the controversy. ‘Bama vs. the world!
I have a hard time seeing #4 Virginia or #3 Baylor, (a team with 10 losses) as Final Four teams from the South. Tennessee has looked very good at times this year but they too have 10 losses. Kansas State doesn’t excite me. They are #4 and #3 in the East. I have Kennesaw knocking off #3 Xavier in the Midwest and Indiana, (11 losses) doesn’t do much for me. I also have Iona beating #4 UCONN in the West, leaving #3 Gonzaga, a team Bilas says are “a bit like Duke...it took them longer than normal to figure things out, but the Zags are playing well” and which owns victories over Michigan State, Kentucky, Alabama, Xavier and Saint Mary's. I think I’ll pick them as my none 1-2 seed in the Final Four. I’ll go with Alabama and Purdue as my #1 seeds and Texas as the #2 seed. That gives me a dozen more games predicted.
Now I’ve got to have my two 9 seed winners, (Auburn and Illinois), lost in the round of 32 to the #1 seed. One of the #10 seeds should go to the Sweet 16. Penn State can’t beat Texas as I’ve got them in the Final Four. So it’s got to be USC over Marquette. One of the #11 seeds has to go to the Sweet 16. That means that either NC State beats Baylor or Providence beats K-State. I don’t really see either but I have a feeling Baylor will out-score the Wolfpack so I’ll go with the Friars. USC would then beat them and lose to Purdue. The other first round cinderelllas go home in a pumpkin in the round of 32.
That leaves me with one game in the East region still to be picked: Tennessee vs. Duke, which will be very interesting. The Vols have had some great performances, beating Kansas by 14 points, Mississippi State by 34, South Carolina by 42 and 40, Texas by 11, Alabama by 9, etc. but they’ve also lost 7 of their last 12 games. Duke, as we know struggled early but are playing very well right now. I’ll go with Duke.
#1 Purdue over #8 Memphis
#5 Duke over #4 Tennessee
#11 Providence upsets #3 Kansas State
#10 Southern California upsets #2 Marquette
#1 Purdue over #4 Duke
#10 Southern California over #11 Providence
#1 Purdue over #10 Southern California
SOUTH
#1 Alabama over #16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi or SE Missouri, (I’ll go with TAM-CC).
#2 Arizona over #15 Princeton
#3 Baylor over #14 UC-Santa Barbara
#4 Virginia over #13 Furman
#12 Charleston will upset #5 San Diego State
#11 North Carolina State will upset #6 Creighton
#7 Missouri over #10 Utah State
#8 Maryland over #9 West Virginia
#1 Alabama over #8 Maryland
#3 Baylor over #11 North Carolina State
I still have three games to pick here: I’ll take Virginia over Charleston and I think Arizona will give Alabama a great game in the regional final.
#4 Virginia over #12 Charleston
#2 Arizona over #7 Missouri
#1 Alabama over #4 Virginia
#2 Arizona over #3 Baylor
#1 Alabama over #2 Arizona
MIDWEST (Why don’t they call it the NORTH?)
#1 Houston over #16 Northern Kentucky
#2 Texas over #15 Colgate, (they were #14 the last two years -why demote them?)
#14 Kennesaw State will upset #3 Xavier
#4 Indiana over #13 Kent State
#5 U of Miami over #12 Drake
#6 Iowa State over #11 Mississippi State
#10 Penn State will upset #7 Texas A&M
#9 Auburn over #9 Iowa
#1 Houston over #9 Auburn
#6 Iowa State over #14 Kennesaw State
#2 Texas over #10 Penn State
#2 Texas over #6 Iowa State
That leaves two other games to pick. I think U of Miami will handle Indiana and, since I don’t have Houston in my Final Four, I’ll give the Canes with their pressure defense, a win over #1 seed Houston before losing to Texas, (they went to the Elite 8 last year, as well).
#5 U of Miami over #4 Indiana
#5 U of Miami over #1 Houston
#2 Texas over #5 U of Miami
WEST
#1 Kansas over #16 Howard
#2 UCLA over #15 UNC-Ashville
#3 Gonzaga over #14 Grand Canyon (The Zags have been to 17 straight Sweet 16s – 17!)
#13 Iona will upset #4 Connecticut (Why is this in the West?)
#5 St. Mary’s over #12 Virginia Commonwealth
#6 Texas Christian over #11 Arizona State or Nevada-Reno
#7 Northwestern over #10 Boise State
#9 Illinois over #9 Arkansas (The Illini looked pretty good to me.)
#1 Kansas over #9 Illinois (But not that good.)
#5 St. Mary’s over #13 Iona
#3 Gonzaga over #6 Texas Christian
That leaves two games to choose: I’ll take UCLA over Northwestern and Kansas over St. Mary’s.
#2 UCLA over #7 Northwestern
#1 Kansas over #2 St. Mary’s
#3 Gonzaga over #1 Kansas
So My Final Four is Alabama vs. Purdue and Texas vs. Gonzaga. I’m going with Alabama’s overall talent and athleticism to overcome Purdue’s giant while Brandon Miller has a big game. The up and coming Zags will overcome Texas and then in what will be perceived by the public as the Good Guys, (Gonzaga) vs. the bad guys, (Alabama), the Zags will finally win the championship they have so long sought after.
Alabama over Purdue
Gonzaga over Texas
Gonzaga over Alabama
Done, for another year.
