SEC Bias in the Polls

[TexanMark]

HokieMark's Article...I tend to agree with him about the Halo effect

from: http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2014/1...01414.html

There are 5 SEC teams in the Top 10 of the AP and USA Today polls, and only one more SEC team in the 11th through 25th spots. That means that pollsters think over a third of that league are top 10 teams. Is that legitimate, or are some of them overrated? Let's look at a couple of suspects...

Alabama.
The last 3 times Alabama has faced a ranked team (Auburn, Oklahoma, Ole Miss), the Tide has lost. In fact, 'Bama has not beaten a ranked team since they handed an overrated LSU team its 3rd loss of the 2013 season. Despite all that, the AP and USA Today both have Alabama ranked #7.

The real problem is the way pollsters treat a team when it loses. When Alabama lost its first game, it fell 4 spots. By contrast, when Oregon lost on the same weekend it fell 10 spots and Oklahoma fell 7 spots. It's tough to overcome that much bias.

Ole Miss?
Their claim to fame is beating that same, overrated Alabama team, as well as a Texas AM team which wouldn't have been ranked had they faced South Carolina later in the season (after the Gamecocks were already exposed). I agree that Ole Miss is very good, but I don't think the Rebels are really playoff material; fortunately there's plenty of season left to prove it one way or the other.

Texas AM.
The Aggies have beaten the following teams this year: South Carolina (3-3), Lamar (FCS), Rice (3-3), SMU (0-5), and Arkansas (3-3). That means A+M's victories have come over one FCS team and four FBS opponents with a combined record of 9-14. Sorry, folks, that's just not very impressive!

The Aggies have also lost 2 in a row, to Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Good losses? So what? Kansas State's only loss is to Auburn - why aren't they in the top 10 with Alabama and Georgia?

Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs appear to be for real. Good for the SEC - they have a bona fide contender.

 

[skurey]

When I'm done with work I'll post the pictures of the 7 straight titles the SEC won.

 

[Hokie Mark]

When I'm done with work I'll post the pictures of the 7 straight titles the SEC won.

Great! Maybe you can also post the national titles won by Syracuse and Pittsburgh - they are just as relevant to the 2014 season!

 

[skurey]

It's sad you think that

 

[Hokie Mark]

It's sad you think that

My bad... those Florida Gator championships are soooooooo relevant today!

 

[BuffOrange]

I feel like we talk about this more in the b'ball forum but this is a lot of cherry-picking and selective endpoints. Why not take Alabama's last five or 25 games vs ranked teams? Or just one this year? We're going with three and exactly three because it's a convenient argument after losing a couple very close games on the road going back to last yr. You really think @Miss is the same as home vs Arizona? What would the point spread be on Zona@Miss? And if you want to play the "X lost to Y who only beat an overrated Z" game I mean just c'mon, you can obviously do that with every team ever. And I am an Oregon guy.

 

[Chip]

Great! Maybe you can also post the national titles won by Syracuse and Pittsburgh - they are just as relevant to the 2014 season!

ACC is its own worst enemy.

In no particular order...

Clemson is beaten soundly in the 2nd half by Georgia.
VT beats Ohio State, and then loses 2 straight at home, including a non P5 school (granted, a good one, but still, you won at Columbus!)
BC beats USC and then loses at home to Colorado State.
Syracuse loses to Maryland.
UNC gives up 1,400 yards and 274 points to East Carolina.
Miami loses to Nebraska
Pitt loses at home to Iowa
UVA looks pretty good, but still, end of the day they lost to both UCLA and BYU.

So other than FSU, where does that hat get hung? Duke's win against Kansas?

ACC can make its statement with the SEC finales. There are 4 this year with Louisville and improved Kentucky being moved to the final game. But usually, the ACC doesn't show up well in these in-state games, outside of again, FSU.

 

[Hokie Mark]

ACC is its own worst enemy.

In no particular order...

Clemson is beaten soundly in the 2nd half by Georgia.
VT beats Ohio State, and then loses 2 straight at home, including a non P5 school (granted, a good one, but still, you won at Columbus!)
BC beats USC and then loses at home to Colorado State.
Syracuse loses to Maryland.
UNC gives up 1,400 yards and 274 points to East Carolina.
Miami loses to Nebraska
Pitt loses at home to Iowa
UVA looks pretty good, but still, end of the day they lost to both UCLA and BYU.

So other than FSU, where does that hat get hung? Duke's win against Kansas?

ACC can make its statement with the SEC finales. There are 4 this year with Louisville and improved Kentucky being moved to the final game. But usually, the ACC doesn't show up well in these in-state games, outside of again, FSU.

Totally true - the ACC is indeed its own worst enemy. (Oh, you forgot Pitt lost to Akron, too!)

That doesn't change the fact that the media is falling all over themselves to pump up the SEC. Yes, that conference had an incredible run; however, let's not forget that they were 0-2 in BCS bowls last year. Is the ACC as good as the SEC on the whole? No, but that's never been my contention. I'm only saying that (a) Clemson, Louisville, and yes, Virginia Tech are all very good teams, and (b) there are teams in other conferences (e.g. Oklahoma, Michigan State) which are better, IMO, than Alabama and Georgia, possibly Ole Miss, definitely Texas A&M. Maybe the ACC doesn't deserve much better, but the Big XII and Pac-12 certainly do...

 

[TheCusian]

I feel like we talk about this more in the b'ball forum but this is a lot of cherry-picking and selective endpoints. Why not take Alabama's last five or 25 games vs ranked teams? Or just one this year? We're going with three and exactly three because it's a convenient argument after losing a couple very close games on the road going back to last yr. You really think @Miss is the same as home vs Arizona? What would the point spread be on Zona@Miss? And if you want to play the "X lost to Y who only beat an overrated Z" game I mean just c'mon, you can obviously do that with every team ever. And I am an Oregon guy.

Three games is showing a trend, no?

 

[SmilinBob]

What some SEC schools along with FSU scheduling wise is very clever. Play the tough teams in conference early and then play the OOC patsy late and jump the teams in the polls due to the asinine last team that lost polling system that the voters use. Add to that when an SEC loses it doesn't drop as far as Texas Mark wrote. Somebody tell me how Arkansas can have any respect after losing as many games as they have and beating no one yet it was a blocked kick for Bama that saved them. If FSU did that vs SU they would be #4 or 5.

And if you want to bring in the resent past, OU kicked Bama's butt in the BCS bowl game and they are #11 while Bama is #7. Can't have it both ways but Bama seems to be able to.

 

[Hokie Mark]

Three games is showing a trend, no?

One is a fluke. Two is a coincidence. Three is a pattern.

 

[MikeSU02]

HokieMark's Article...I tend to agree with him about the Halo effect

from: http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2014/1...01414.html

There are 5 SEC teams in the Top 10 of the AP and USA Today polls, and only one more SEC team in the 11th through 25th spots. That means that pollsters think over a third of that league are top 10 teams. Is that legitimate, or are some of them overrated? Let's look at a couple of suspects...

Alabama.
The last 3 times Alabama has faced a ranked team (Auburn, Oklahoma, Ole Miss), the Tide has lost. In fact, 'Bama has not beaten a ranked team since they handed an overrated LSU team its 3rd loss of the 2013 season. Despite all that, the AP and USA Today both have Alabama ranked #7.

The real problem is the way pollsters treat a team when it loses. When Alabama lost its first game, it fell 4 spots. By contrast, when Oregon lost on the same weekend it fell 10 spots and Oklahoma fell 7 spots. It's tough to overcome that much bias.

Ole Miss?
Their claim to fame is beating that same, overrated Alabama team, as well as a Texas AM team which wouldn't have been ranked had they faced South Carolina later in the season (after the Gamecocks were already exposed). I agree that Ole Miss is very good, but I don't think the Rebels are really playoff material; fortunately there's plenty of season left to prove it one way or the other.

Texas AM.
The Aggies have beaten the following teams this year: South Carolina (3-3), Lamar (FCS), Rice (3-3), SMU (0-5), and Arkansas (3-3). That means A+M's victories have come over one FCS team and four FBS opponents with a combined record of 9-14. Sorry, folks, that's just not very impressive!

The Aggies have also lost 2 in a row, to Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Good losses? So what? Kansas State's only loss is to Auburn - why aren't they in the top 10 with Alabama and Georgia?

Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs appear to be for real. Good for the SEC - they have a bona fide contender.

At the time of playing each team, Alabama beat the following teams last year and rankings:

#6 A&M
#21 Ole Miss
#10 LSU

LSU (the "overrated" team) ended up 14th and A&M ended up 18th.

They lost a game to Auburn (arch rival) which came down to a ridiculous final play and then mailed it in during the bowl game because it wasn't the title game.

Alabama should arguably be ranked higher, if anything. And let's not forget that there isn't a better coach roaming the sidelines in college football right now than Saban.

 

[TheCusian]

At the time of playing each team, Alabama beat the following teams last year and rankings:

#6 A&M
#21 Ole Miss
#10 LSU

LSU (the "overrated" team) ended up 14th and A&M ended up 18th.

They lost a game to Auburn (arch rival) which came down to a ridiculous final play and then mailed it in during the bowl game because it wasn't the title game.

Alabama should arguably be ranked higher, if anything. And let's not forget that there isn't a better coach roaming the sidelines in college football right now than Saban.

And they've lost to whom last year and this year? The relative competency of a coach should be utterly meaningless in the polls. Should be who you beat and who you lost to - and how'd you look doing it.

 

[NashvilleOrange]

Honestly the respect the B1g gets in the polls is worse. They've had an awful product for years now yet Michigan State is ranked ahead of Oregon, both 1 loss teams and Oregon beat them down in their head to head matchup. Ohio State is 13?! Who did they beat? They lost to a mediocre Virginia Tech team.

 

[NashvilleOrange]

The SEC wins their marquee non-conference games - as long as that keeps happening they'll get the respect in the polls. Georgia destroyed Clemson, Auburn went into K State and took them down, LSU beats Wisconsin, Arkansas destroys Texas Tech, etc. SEC always takes care of bowl season as well.

 

[Alsacs]

SEC teams are overrated but the teams are better than most teams.
Notre Dame is ranked 5th in the polls but Vegas would have them as a TD underdog to Auburn on a neutral field.
Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama are overrated but Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Auburn are legit IMO.
Until the other 4 power 5 conferences keep the NC out of the SEC they will get more respect.

 

[MikeSU02]

And they've lost to whom last year and this year? The relative competency of a coach should be utterly meaningless in the polls. Should be who you beat and who you lost to - and how'd you look doing it.

I touched on the team's previous losses for 2013. Auburn in a rival game that came down to the final play and a mailed-in game against Oklahoma.

Alabama lost to Ole Miss this year. Ole Miss is ranked higher now.

Everyone loves to claim that the SEC is overrated, but then can't name the teams that should be higher. It's like when a generic political opponent polls better than a known opponent. Alabama isn't the best team in the world... ok, so what teams are legitimately better, based on resume, that aren't already higher than they are?

Alabama is within the grouping that has Auburn, MSU, Oregon, Georgia, Oklahoma (all separated by 124 points in the coaches' poll).

Where do you think they should be? Who should be higher?

 

[Alsacs]

I touched on the team's previous losses for 2013. Auburn in a rival game that came down to the final play and a mailed-in game against Oklahoma.

Alabama lost to Ole Miss this year. Ole Miss is ranked higher now.

Everyone loves to claim that the SEC is overrated, but then can't name the teams that should be higher. It's like when a generic political opponent polls better than a known opponent. Alabama isn't the best team in the world... ok, so what teams are legitimately better, based on resume, that aren't already higher than they are?

Alabama is within the grouping that has Auburn, MSU, Oregon, Georgia, Oklahoma (all separated by 124 points in the coaches' poll).

Where do you think they should be? Who should be higher?

The problem is when they lose they don't go down even if they play bad. Georgia should not be in the top 10 right now Oklahoma has better wins and they are behind Georgia.
Bama doesn't look the machine it has been the past few years. The A&M-Bama game this weekend is likely the battle of the 4th and 5th best SEC West teams. If A&M loses they will likely fall out of the top 25. Bama is a top 15 team this year I think not a top 8 team. They are still solid but a rebuilding top 15 team isn't that bad.
I think TCU/Oklahoma are better than Alabama.

 

[Pyle]

No more BCS, that means it's time for the P5 minus SEC to put up or shut up. I've thought there was a media bias towards them for 2 decades. Time to see if it's actually true or if they are actually that good.

 

[Pat Kelly]

Great! Maybe you can also post the national titles won by Syracuse and Pittsburgh - they are just as relevant to the 2014 season!

It means they've been the most dominant conference by far in college football the past ten years… there's no real argument...

 

[Scooch]

How do we address the PAC-12 bias in the polls? Because they've had nearly the same number of top 25 teams the past couple years?

Or maybe the SEC is just really good.

Occam's Razor and all.

 

[sufandu]

It's a joke that we see so few OOC match-ups in our current system. We judge leagues based on how their teams fair OOC in the first 2 weeks of the season and then bowl games after everyone has had a month or more off. Conferences should play no more than 7 conference games. We'd have a higher number of interesting match-ups and we'd get teams playing OOC games after they've had a month to figure out who they are and make adjustments. Once everyone gets into conference play, I really don't pay much attention to games other than SU or the major rivalry games because it gets boring seeing the same teams play each other every year.