Random Thoughts about Doty:
I am far more skeptical of Doty and his impact at Syracuse than many here. I find it unlikely he is going to step up from being a star in the MAAC to being much more than a deep rotation player at Syracuse. He put up great numbers (I will get into his stats in a minute) against the 327th best Strength of Schedule in the 25th or 26th best conference, depending on which rating system you use. Siena had the best final NET rating in the conference, at 173. That would have been just behind last place Georgia Tech in the ACC, who earned a NET of 169.
In short, Doty dominated a low major conference, but I have severe doubts about how his body and his game will translate.
Doty is listed at 6'5 185 lb, but looks smaller than that on the court, even after two years of college S&C. Guys like Starling and Kingz make him looks puny by comparison. I think he is going to really struggle playing against ACC players who are going to be much more physical.
Doty shot only .326 from 3pt range this past year, a big improvement over his freshman .283 shooting percentage. I find it amusing that people who complained bitterly about Starling not being able to shoot are excited about Doty coming in to be his replacement.
Doty has blocked 2 shots in his college career. He averages 1.3 steals a game, many of them the tricky kind where he slips in behind players to tap the ball away. He isn't Maliq Brown who just has amazing hands for disrupting opposing ball handlers while they are being actively guarded. Highlights don't reveal overall defense usually, I will cede the "Doty plays great defense" point to people who have watched more games than I have.
Basketball IQ is a tremendously overused phrase here and elsewhere. Worse, it is sometimes a codeword for "white player" which I find borderline reprehensible. In my experience, good players just look "smart" because they are able to make the plays. Maybe being "smart" on the court has something to do with it, but more often, they are just able to make plays that lesser players screw up.
That said, Doty has a knack for finding the weaknesses in a defense that you don't see too often. Time and again, in his highlights, he finds the one spot on the court where he needed to be to get a play made, often against very well positioned defense. I see what previous posters mean about him coming out of nowhere to make plays. I see his ability to slip into the best spots most often during screen and roll action, both as the screener (yes guards can set screens too!) and as the ball handler. He seems to be slippery when driving, where his misdirection causes guys to get on skates when he is driving. He seems to consistently take one extra dribble in the paint that lets him shoot his short jumpers and floaters that go in at a high rate (.508 2pt shooting) without dunking the ball very often.
He has spectacular body control when finishing, or even on the drive and dish. Doty's ability to deal with adverse body position and adjust so he can still get the ball to the basket reminds me of William Kyle's ability to adjust in mid air and still get the dunk. Both are elite at whatever that skill is called. Of course, Kyle is 25 inches higher in the air while he is doing it.
Doty always seems to make the right pass. While this is reflected in his 2.2 A/TO ratio, I think he actually puts a lot of pressure on a defense because the ball isn't just moving, it is going from Doty (who at Siena was a defensive focal point) to the guy who can do something useful with it. A lot of guys get stopped at their point of attack and just reset, Doty finds the guy who can do something with it. He just seems to keep the offense going.
Doty looks like an instinctive player who really helps his team on offense. If he brings his intuitive play to defense, I could see him being a good defensive player as well.
Doty, despite his slight build, averaged 6.9 rebounds per game and had an impressive 17.4% defensive rebound % last season. Sadiq White was at 15.7% by comparison, despite being much more physically gifted. Obviously choosing White for comparison was far from random. Doty is a unremarkable, but persistent offensive rebounder, getting 5% of his team's misses when he is on the court. He did way better 8.2% as a freshman, so perhaps teams were more focused on blocking him out this past year. Either way, his 5% offensive rebound % would have been tied for 6th among Syracuse players in offensive rebounding by %.
(By chance, looking at rebounding stats brought back this tangent. Weirdly, by chance, Freeman was only a 3.7% offensive rebounder last season. He wasn't much better as a freshman How did that guy, who was a dominant rebounder on the defensive end, get so few O rebounds? If whoever coaches Donnie next season gets him to work on the offensive boards, they could have a monster on their hands. Oh, what could have been! <sob>)
**Rereading this, it feels like my observations are going to come off as harsh criticism of this player. Not my intention. I am a well known Polyanna here, and by season start will have convinced myself Doty is going to be All ACC, but my first impressions are not that optimistic.**
The bad news is that Doty isn't going to be able to do most of what he does at Siena against high major competition. He does all kinds of spin moves and loose behind the back dribbling that will become blocks and steals in the ACC that create fast breaks the other way. He plays so below the rim that he isn't going to get his shot off a lot of the time. Doty is bad enough shooting the 3 that he is going to be invited to shoot, and he shoots a low, fairly slow shot that he won't be able to get off without being challenged effectively anyway. His isolation dribble drive game is going to be curtailed, and I don't think he's going to be able to play so loose coming off screens with taller 200lb+ guards jamming him. I see him having a very tough adjustment period to the superior athletes he is going to face every night. Doty is either going to need to be much more selective on offense to keep his efficiency or have his efficiency go way down to keep scoring at a high rate.
Only a short time ago, Jyare Davis scored 17 and 7 rebounds per game at Delaware (a better team in a better conference) then came to Syracuse and was largely overmatched, dropping to 9 and 5 against better defenses on way fewer shots. I was happy when he was our 4th forward, but attrition made him a starter and the season was sunk.
Lucas Taylor scored 14.5 per game at Georgia State (a better team in a better conference) then came to Syracuse and came off the bench because he was overmatched, dropping to 6 points a game on way fewer shots. I was happy with him being our depth at wing, but he became a starter and we were screwed the rest of the way.
So soon we forget.
I will be surprised and delighted if Gavin Doty comes to Syracuse and performs as an above average ACC starter for Syracuse.
After watching his video, I think he should be at best our 6th man. I would be happier if he was our 7th or 8th.
If he is among our better players, our ceiling is very low.
Of course, I could be wrong, approximately .05% of low major transfers have played their way into the lottery. There are a bunch of quality starters every year that move up from bad conferences and perform very well at the high major level.
I just don't think Doty is that guy.
