Shafer's history

[Scooch]

Great analysis, really interesting stuff.

Football can be like watching a command performance of Small Sample Size Theater, so we should proceed with some caution in ascribing too much meaning to 25 games. But that being said, I think this data provides a lot of directional insight.

And I agree that unless we either (a) see the season go off the rails from the start, or (b) see the season exceed our wildest imaginations, that 6 wins and bowl eligibility might come down to finding 2 wins in the games against UVA, Pitt, NC State and BC.

 

[kcsu]

He is 8-0 vs teams that end the year outside the Top 65 in the Sagarin. The average score in those games was SU 32.5 ppg to Opp 8.25 ppg. Teams we play this year that were worse than 65th last season (yes I know year to year is not the same thing): CMU (101), Wake (125), USF (147), RI (231). If none of those teams make a big jump this year, I would expect SU to win those games rather easily. There is no excuse for losing to these teams IMO, hello 4-0.

He is 0-13 vs teams in the Top 55. The average score in those games was SU 11.6 ppg to Opp 33.1 ppg. Teams we play this year that ended in the Top 55: Clemson (13), LSU (14), FSU (16), UL (30), BC (44), NC St (48), UVA (51). Of those teams BC, NC St, and UVA could fall out of the Top 55. The other 4 teams I would expect SU to lose the games and for it not to be close. It would be a shock to beat any of those top 4 teams IMO, hello 4-4 with 3 TBD.

He is 2-2 vs teams in the 56-65 range. The average score in those games was SU 22.25 ppg to Opp 31.5 ppg. The games we won were close the games we lost were not close. Teams we play this year that ended in the 56-65 range: Pitt. They could go up or down in the rankings this year so they are a TBD so we are at 4-4 with 4 TBD.

Really the swing games IMO is UVA and Pitt. We NEED to win one of those to have a successful season. If we go into NC St with a 6 game losing streak, I think it will be too much to overcome. Same with BC if we have a 7 game losing streak. It is unrealistic to expect a win vs both UVA and Pitt but I think we can win one of them. We need to be a 5-5 going into the last 2 to realistically get into a Bowl.

Another interesting stat: when SU gives up 17 points or less in regulation we are 9-2 under Shafer. When we give up more than 17 we are 1-13. That is more of an indication of a bad O than a D problem. You cannot expect to hold teams to 17 points or less. Shafer needs to find an O asap.

great post

 

[TheCusian]

I don't think I agree. Sustaining a drive instead of punting, scoring a touchdown instead kicking a field goal; these things can change a game dramatically.

As much as 50 spots on the overall O or being 60% accurate vs 45?

No. Way.

 

[donniesyracuse]

As much as 50 spots on the overall O or being 60% accurate vs 45?

No. Way.

Why do I have to choose? Why can't I have a good offensive coordinator, an accurate quarterback, and a head coach that understands probabilities? Clearly, any three of those variables could significantly impact the outcome of a game.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Good post just goes to show that you need to score points to win, white knuckling playing the game the way your grandfather did won't work plain and simple.

It is today's college football reality.

 

[TheCusian]

Why do I have to choose? Why can't I have a good offensive coordinator, an accurate quarterback, and a head coach that understands probabilities? Clearly, any three of those variables could significantly impact the outcome of a game.

My goodness. Re-read our back and forth.

Me: I want Lester to be great and Hunt to be accurate

You: I'd like Shafer to understand probabilities

Me: I don't think it matters as much, but SURE WHY NOT throw that in too

You: I think him understanding probabilities is more important

Me: I'd take a great OC and an accurate QB (65%) first

You: why can't I have both?

Me, right now: THATS WHAT I SAID EARLIER

 

[OttoinGrotto]

My goodness. Re-read our back and forth.

Me: I want Lester to be great and Hunt to be accurate

You: I'd like Shafer to understand probabilities

Me: I don't think it matters as much, but SURE WHY NOT throw that in too

You: I think him understanding probabilities is more important

Me: I'd take a great OC and an accurate QB (65%) first

You: why can't I have both?

Me, right now: THATS WHAT I SAID EARLIER

This tells me the board is ready for the season to start.

 

[Crusty]

Good post. IMO - in his first two seasons HCSS has had one weak and one terrible offense. If Lester's offense is simply average those stats will get turned upside down. We have been playing half a game. I think that changes this year.

 

[leftytg]

My goodness. Re-read our back and forth.

Me: I want Lester to be great and Hunt to be accurate

You: I'd like Shafer to understand probabilities

Me: I don't think it matters as much, but SURE WHY NOT throw that in too

You: I think him understanding probabilities is more important

Me: I'd take a great OC and an accurate QB (65%) first

You: why can't I have both?

Me, right now: THATS WHAT I SAID EARLIER

Actually, it's what he said earlier. Go back and read post #19. Or, do you not know what "also" means? You conveniently mischaracterized donniesyracuse's post in your glib little summary. You also mischaracterized what he said on the importance of probabilities.

 

[donniesyracuse]

My goodness. Re-read our back and forth.

Me: I want Lester to be great and Hunt to be accurate

You: I'd like Shafer to understand probabilities

Me: I don't think it matters as much, but SURE WHY NOT throw that in too

You: I think him understanding probabilities is more important

Me: I'd take a great OC and an accurate QB (65%) first

You: why can't I have both?

Me, right now: THATS WHAT I SAID EARLIER

I was teasing; I know you didn't say I couldn't have all three. It was a joke about the real possibility that we will have none of the three.

You seem very defensive. Are you just amped up for tomorrow night?

 

[TheCusian]

Actually, it's what he said earlier. Go back and read post #19. Or, do you not know what "also" means? You conveniently mischaracterized donniesyracuse's post in your glib little summary. You also mischaracterized what he said on the importance of probabilities.

Sigh. Just re read the posts.

 

[TheCusian]

I was teasing; I know you didn't say I couldn't have all three. It was a joke about the real possibility that we will have none of the three. You seem very defensive. Are you just amped up for tomorrow night?

Yep. Sorry about my glib post.

Let's play some football, eh?

 

[donniesyracuse]

Let's play some football, eh?

I cannot wait! I've been staring at our season ticket booklet all night. I also can't believe I'm watching Central Michigan football right now.