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Message: [QUOTE="Waltdods, post: 1046548, member: 2932"] I don't understand what Ford is suggesting the trade would be. MCW for Wiggins/Parker and Exum? Clearly, that's a great deal and the Sixers should take it. It will equally clearly never happen. So really you're looking at effectively trading MCW for Exum (even if this isn't precisely how the trade lines up). Never say never, I guess, but this doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if "most agree" that Exum has the higher upside (I have no idea if this is true), you need to account for uncertainty. The hit rate on top-10 picks is what, 50% become solid NBA starters? 60%? Maybe 15% become all-stars? MCW has already established that he won't bust and has a high NBA ceiling. Exum has done neither - the expected value with him has to be lower because of the high downside risk. I'm not the world's biggest MCW fan but for some reason Mr. Ford's terrible reasoning drives me nuts. [/QUOTE]