simple rating system SU trends since mac glory days (gerg related) | Syracusefan.com

simple rating system SU trends since mac glory days (gerg related)

Millhouse

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having a tough time coming up with a better title.

the point of this is to show that Gerg being so terrible really didn't make that much difference in the longer term trend.

I compared the last 4 years of Mac to P through McNabb years, P post mcnabb, gerg, marrone and shafer. one line is the average SRS (simple rating system from college football reference - point differential per game adjusted by your opponent's margins) for each period. the other takes the drop from mac to babers and applies it evenly across the board. the point of this is that each coach other than gerg is pretty close to the long term even trend line.

part of the reason srs is so low now is because gerg hurt us, i get that. but i think there might be a longer term trend that has to do with schedule, facilities, who knows what.

i just thought this was mildly interesting, not posting this because i think it's earthshattering, i just think it's interesting how close p, marrone and shafer are to the line between mac and babers

srs.jpg
 
Last edited:
having a tough time coming up with a better title.

the point of this is to show that Gerg being so terrible really didn't make that much difference in the longer term trend.

I compared the last 4 years of Mac to P through McNabb years, P post mcnabb, gerg, marrone and shafer. one lines are the average SRS (simple rating system from college football reference - point differential per game adjusted by your opponent's margins) for each period. the other taking the drop from mac to babers and applying it evenly across the board. the point of this is that each coach other than gerg is pretty close to the long term even trend line.

part of the reason srs is so low now is because gerg hurt us, i get that. but i think there might be a longer term trend that has to do with schedule, facilities, who knows what.

i just thought this was mildly interesting, not posting this because i think it's earthshattering, i just think it's interesting how close p, marrone and shafer are to the line between mac and babers

View attachment 86150

Wonder if the decline of NE high school football is on a similar graph and/or the migration of people from NE to more southern states...
 
how does this compare with other eastern foes over the same time period? how does it compare with say a team like Nebraska or miami or texas which have fallen off a ton since the 80's?
 
how does this compare with other eastern foes over the same time period? how does it compare with say a team like Nebraska or miami or texas which have fallen off a ton since the 80's?
i don't know. the only thing i really get from this is that maybe gerg didn't permanently set us off track too much, it was terrible while it lasted but it's not the end of the world for us. it's all pretty arbitrary, starts with mac's last 4 years and ends with just one year of babers and fills in the blanks.

miami was sneaky good this year without anyone paying attention

i think harder schedules hurt us even though strength of schedule is factored in. it hurts our SRS a lot relative to how much it hurts other teams
 
how does this compare with other eastern foes over the same time period? how does it compare with say a team like Nebraska or miami or texas which have fallen off a ton since the 80's?

Would like to see this in comparison to Pitt, PSU and WVa too
 
having a tough time coming up with a better title.

the point of this is to show that Gerg being so terrible really didn't make that much difference in the longer term trend.

I compared the last 4 years of Mac to P through McNabb years, P post mcnabb, gerg, marrone and shafer. one line is the average SRS (simple rating system from college football reference - point differential per game adjusted by your opponent's margins) for each period. the other takes the drop from mac to babers and applies it evenly across the board. the point of this is that each coach other than gerg is pretty close to the long term even trend line.

part of the reason srs is so low now is because gerg hurt us, i get that. but i think there might be a longer term trend that has to do with schedule, facilities, who knows what.

i just thought this was mildly interesting, not posting this because i think it's earthshattering, i just think it's interesting how close p, marrone and shafer are to the line between mac and babers

View attachment 86150

 
gerg was horrible but was made to be a sacrificial lamb, for all the systemic issues that surround su football. very convenient for folks who do not know su hx of lack of support. it really manifested itself in pasqualonis last years. we never invested in the program when we were being successful.
 
gerg was horrible but was made to be a sacrificial lamb, for all the systemic issues that surround su football. very convenient for folks who do not know su hx of lack of support. it really manifested itself in pasqualonis last years. we never invested in the program when we were being successful.

That and he was a bad coach.
 
i don't know. the only thing i really get from this is that maybe gerg didn't permanently set us off track too much, it was terrible while it lasted but it's not the end of the world for us. it's all pretty arbitrary, starts with mac's last 4 years and ends with just one year of babers and fills in the blanks.

miami was sneaky good this year without anyone paying attention

i think harder schedules hurt us even though strength of schedule is factored in. it hurts our SRS a lot relative to how much it hurts other teams


Your graph makes it clear that the decline in the program started well before Robinson: he was supposed to arrest the decline and turn things back around. Instead he accelerated it. At our best sin e then, we've been at about the same level as before Robinson. We're in a much tougher situation now and the climb back up will be much harder than it was for Mac.
 

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