So here's to you, Joe Missouri-O

[kyleslamb]

A nation turns its lonely expansion eyes to you.

Starting to feel like just when there was some chance to catch our collective breaths in the expansion minutia, Missouri could get things going again. While the media would have us believe the Big 12 has agreed to sign a 6-year commitment to the conference, there has been nothing actually drawn up and Missouri is adamant against signing such an agreement.

One thing that's interesting is that it appears their curators and president have been overwhelmed with the response they're getting from fans and alums that are adamantly against remaining in the Big 12. My hunch is they've committed to leaving, but are doing so very meticulously.

So this is the point in expansion where the B1G might be forced to evacuate or get off the pot. I think the Big Ten would like to continue sitting on the sidelines to allow more things to develop, but Missouri might force their hand for 13 & 14. Missouri will be in a situation where they want to get out of dodge very soon, and they have the SEC likely waiting on them as well. So while Missouri might prefer the Big Ten, it's going to require the Big Ten getting back in the expansion game. If that doesn't happen, they might be off to the SEC.

The question is: does the Big 12 continue to remain viable if Missouri leaves? Long-term, not a chance. Whether they do for a few more years remains to be seen. However, if the Big Ten gets involved for 13 & 14, this might cause a chain reaction of the SEC and ACC trying to decide whether to poach the remaining Big East. That discord could be the death knell of the Big 12 once and for all.

Another thing to watch: Notre Dame. Despite public comments that might run to the contrary, some interesting feedback was given to other hockey conferences recently. It will be interesting to see how that all develops.

 

[Scooch]

I'm sorry, did you say that a conference with Texas and Oklahoma is not viable long term without Missouri?

 

[Toga]

The Show Me state. Make your move Mo.

 

[kyleslamb]

I'm sorry, did you say that a conference with Texas and Oklahoma is not viable long term without Missouri?

Yes, because Fox isn't going to sit there forever while the Big 12 replaces Missouri and Texas A&M with Big East leftovers. Sooner or later, Fox will void its media deal (which it can do when the conference drops below 10 teams) and I doubt it's going to continue paying the same money for teams that might bring in half the money of those two teams.

Missouri isn't the end of the world, but taken as a whole, losing both they and A&M might kill the media deal which would kill the conference.

 

[Scooch]

Replace aTm and Mizzou with some duo of Louisville, TCU, BYU, etc. and there won't be a problem.

 

[kyleslamb]

Replace aTm and Mizzou with some duo of Louisville, TCU, BYU, etc. and there won't be a problem.

Easy for you to say, but you're not the one paying that money for those lesser teams. I'm not sure Fox would be thrilled with paying the same money for Louisville & BYU rather that they did for Missouri and TAMU.

 

[Scooch]

Kyle, why don't you try this, list the 10 Big XII teams and assign them shares of value a media company might affix to them. For example, Texas = 35%; Iowa State = 5%.

Now take out your shares for aTm and Mizzou.

Now assign share value for, say, BYU and UL. What'd you get? Think Fox will try and kill their deal over that?

 

[kyleslamb]

Kyle, why don't you try this, list the 10 Big XII teams and assign them shares of value a media company might affix to them. For example, Texas = 35%; Iowa State = 5%.

Now take out your shares for aTm and Mizzou.

Now assign share value for, say, BYU and UL. What'd you get? Think Fox will try and kill their deal over that?

I already am aware that Texas represents between 40-50% of the television value for that conference. And frankly, it makes sense considering the state of Texas comprises about 8.9 million of the remaining 13.9 million households in the leftover Big 12 footprint.

However... the state of Missouri represents over 2.5 million households -- as many as Oklahoma and Kansas combined. While Missouri's overall value is not that of Oklahoma because of the ratings involved, you can't tell me Fox is eager to lose 20% of its footprint after also losing Texas A&M, and would be completely committed to paying the same money they had previously agreed to pay last summer. Much of the value in conference television money is the indirect impact teams have within their market to increase viewership of other conference games. I'm sure BYU and Louisville would recoup perhaps some of that value, but enough that Fox would be willing to continue paying as agreed? Doubt it. I think best case scenario they void the deal and attempt to re-up a lesser agreement.

And even if that's the result, do you think Oklahoma and Texas stay "committed" to the conference? I suspect that's not the case.

 

[ORANGEsPHK]

I find it completely astounding at these posts that have so much depth into the business aspect of the conference realignments and what make a conference viable in this day and age. Simply amazing.

I wish I had just a little bit of clarity into what is making these changes a necessity for these universities, but I have very little. Kudos to you guys for bringing these things to light for me.

I thought I was a fan for just wishing for my beloved Orange to kick ass come game day. I'm learning a lot from you guys.

Thanks!

______________________________
Tapatalk'd from my Droid

 

[SmilinBob]

Texas owns that conference and Oklahoma is tied to the hip with OKState so they aren't free to move anywhere. Missouri wants to go the B1G and perhaps they thought this was a way to get them to jump and they didn't. Now, they have to make a decision to join the SEC and have just Arkansas as a rival or continue to be a pawn in the Texas Longhorn conference. I think if they stay they are turning down the SEC and have painted themselves into a corner and will have to calm down the constant complaining about Texas because they are now going to have to deal with the devil they know.

As for TV, yes Missouri has a lot of people but OU has more eyes watch them nationally.

 

[rrlbees]

Texas owns that conference and Oklahoma is tied to the hip with OKState so they aren't free to move anywhere. Missouri wants to go the B1G and perhaps they thought this was a way to get them to jump and they didn't. Now, they have to make a decision to join the SEC and have just Arkansas as a rival or continue to be a pawn in the Texas Longhorn conference. I think if they stay they are turning down the SEC and have painted themselves into a corner and will have to calm down the constant complaining about Texas because they are now going to have to deal with the devil they know.

As for TV, yes Missouri has a lot of people but OU has more eyes watch them nationally.

Folks are saying that Missouri doesn't have an SEC offer at this time.

 

[SmilinBob]

Folks are saying that Missouri doesn't have an SEC offer at this time.

Maybe rr but the SEC is proud and if Missouri did turn them down it wouldn't look so good for them. It is possible that FSU, VTech and Clemson are in the hunt as well as WV but I think Missouri has a wait and see offer much like UConn may have right now with the ACC.

 

[rrlbees]

Maybe rr but the SEC is proud and if Missouri did turn them down it wouldn't look so good for them. It is possible that FSU, VTech and Clemson are in the hunt as well as WV but I think Missouri has a wait and see offer much like UConn may have right now with the ACC.

I don't think anyone would get an invite anyplace unless it was already agreed to behind the scenes. Nobody wants to be embarrassed and turned down.

 

[SmilinBob]

SEC...So, I were to say, invite you to join the SEC, would you say yes, but I'm not inviting you, just wondering?

Missouri: Well, let me ask my boss Texas and see what they say. Can we tell the world you asked us out because we'd really look cool?

SEC: No, but while you're talking to Texas please put a good word in for us and let them know if they want to join they can but not with that LHN thing.

Missouri: Would we be able to join if Texas comes?

SEC: Who are you? I've never seen you before, got to go we've never talked. In the background...Hey boss, the NCAA is on the other line, something about another Bama guy and SUV's?

 

[Rocco]

As for TV, yes Missouri has a lot of people but OU has more eyes watch them nationally.

Do you know this for a fact or are you just assuming about OU? Wouldn't make sense to me.

 

[SmilinBob]

Do you know this for a fact or are you just assuming about OU? Wouldn't make sense to me.

I'm assuming given that Missouri will not get all the eyes from KC and St Louis plus OU is a national power and draw. OU plays Iowa St and a person from Ohio watches, Missouri, not so much. I'd have to believe that the TV viewer number crunchers have these numbers in hand. Now if the frontrunners see Missouri as a consistent winner then they'll get their numbers until they struggle. OU will always have decent numbers and they can just go up.

 

[kyleslamb]

I'm assuming given that Missouri will not get all the eyes from KC and St Louis plus OU is a national power and draw. OU plays Iowa St and a person from Ohio watches, Missouri, not so much. I'd have to believe that the TV viewer number crunchers have these numbers in hand. Now if the frontrunners see Missouri as a consistent winner then they'll get their numbers until they struggle. OU will always have decent numbers and they can just go up.

TV dollars are not just about who's watching Oklahoma or Missouri, even if we accept your premise that Oklahoma gets better ratings (which has not been a point of contention for me). Understand that advertising dollars for a network are also a product of who, in those markets, are watching all the other conference games (as ratings naturally do better within the conference footprint since fans are more vested in what their conference foes are doing). Since Missouri nearly doubles the number of TV households than Oklahoma, consider the total number of advertising dollars Missouri is worth with all those extra eye balls in the other Big 12 conference games. I'm not saying this means Missouri is worth more. They would not be. But the indirect market impacts would tilt the numbers slightly closer than if you just look at ratings of Missouri and Oklahoma games.

 

[Rocco]

OU plays Iowa St and a person from Ohio watches, Missouri, not so much.

??

 

[SmilinBob]

Good points. I don't pretend to know all the tv ins and outs but I'm sure there's a lot that goes into this and the SEC is a good businessmen and will have this thing figured out.

Potential viewers and it has to include how many tvs are even on watching football which may help Oklahoma even though Missouri doubles it's numbers I think that will help OU but I do see your point. Expansion is giving the beancounters some nice job security!

 

[SmilinBob]

??

Which would you watch? I know it's not local $ thing but nationally more people will tune in to see a perennial Top 10 OU.

 

[Rocco]

Which would you watch? I know it's not local $ thing but nationally more people will tune in to see a perennial Top 10 OU.

I replied "??" because that sentence didn't make sense. When OU plays ISU, it is by no means a big game that would draw viewers from Ohio. If Mizzou plays Texas that day, yes a person in another state might watch Mizzou.

All in all, I agree with you that OU is a football powerhouse, but that doesn't mean it makes up for a 1.5 million household shortfall versus the St. Louis/KC market.

 

[SmilinBob]

Yeah, it was both schools playing Iowa St. I'm not so sure those Stl and KC eyes wouldn't rather watch OU as well.

To me, it's kind of like the ND or Rutgers/CT question to a degree. Indiana or Jersey? Ones national one is not.

 

[All4SU]

I don't think anyone would get an invite anyplace unless it was already agreed to behind the scenes. Nobody wants to be embarrassed and turned down.

Yeah, that would suck. I can't even imagine. :bang:

 

[Scooch]

What I love about this discussion is that it may be the first time since the 1800s that people actually care about the St. Louis and Kansas City "markets".

Markets similar to St. Louis and Kansas City...

Portland, OR
Sacramento
Hartford/New Haven
Nashville
Raleigh-Durham

We're not talking about NYC and LA here people.

 

[Jake]

Oklahoma football is a much stronger BRAND than Missouri FB. Its not even remotely close. There is much more national interest in an OU game.