2005 Started 21-2, then lost 3 out of 4.
2006 Started 15-2, then lost 5 out of 6.
2007 Started 15-4, then lost 4 out of 5.
2008 Started 12-3, then lost 4 out of 5, followed shortly by losing 5 out of 6.
2009 Started 16-1, then lost 5 out of 6.
2010 A legitimate excellent team that never had a bad stretch.
2011 Started 18-0, then lost 4 straight.
2012 A legitimate excellent team that never had a bad stretch.
2013 Started 20-3, then lost 4 out of 5.
2014 Started 25-0, then lost 4 out of 5.
There's an obvious pattern here. A combination of easy early schedule plus limited rotation spells doom at the end of the regular season. 8 out of the last 10 years have been the same. This year, for the first time, I looked at this pattern and tempered my expectations. As last year showed, the NCAA tournament is a crap shoot, but I expect a result more like 2011 than 2013.